The real cost of Europe’s involvement in the war in Ukraine

Subject: The real cost of Europe’s involvement in the war in Ukraine

For two and a half years, the parties involved in war in Ukraine have – as can be expected – disclosed conflicting information in relation to its economic cost. The fact that the Ukrainian army is forming new mechanised brigades is a sign that the war is expected to continue for a fourth year.

Of course, responsible policy choices at European level have to take into account humanitarian suffering on both sides, the time frame and the cost we bear as a result of our secondary involvement. Given that we are accountable to the people we have been called upon to represent, we must consider the direct and indirect costs per capita for the EU. On its relevant web page1, the European Commission states that, since the start of the war, ‘the EU [has] provided economic, humanitarian and military support for Ukraine worth over EUR 88 billion’. It goes on to say that ‘the conviction remains unwavering that Ukraine will prevail, with Europe standing by its side as long as it takes,’ a stance which is no longer justified in light of the evolution of the war nor reflected in the changing political will of European voters and which jumps to conclusions with regard to our future political decision-making.

In view of the above:

1. Does the Commission confirm that, between February 2022 and September 2024, the cost of EU support for Ukraine amounted to EUR 88 billion?

2. How much of Europe’s aid takes the shape of: (a) loans that are repayable by Ukraine, (b) military supplies that have been destroyed, and (c) direct funding that is not due to be repaid?

3. Does the Commission have estimates of the indirect costs to European economies?

Submitted: 18.10.2024

1 https://european-union.europa.eu/priorities-and-actions/eu-support-ukraine_en

Answer given by Mr Serafin on behalf of the European Commission

(16 December 2024)

The European Council conclusions of 17 October 2024 (1) reconfirm the EU’s unwavering commitment to providing continued political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine and its people for as long as it takes and as intensely as needed.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the EU and its Member States have mobilised EUR 124 billion in support to Ukraine and its people (as of mid-November 2024).

This includes the following direct forms of support:

— EUR 47.8 billion of financial assistance from the EU

— EUR 12.2 billion in bilateral assistance from EU Member States

— EUR 45.5 billion in military assistance

— EUR 1.5 billion from the proceeds stemming from frozen and immobilised Russian assets.

Out of the financial assistance from the EU, EUR 35.7 billion is provided in the form of loans and EUR 6.8 billion in the form of non-repayable support, and EUR 5.3 billion is supported through EU guarantees.

EU Member States have so far provided EUR 45.5 billion worth of military assistance including EUR 6.1 billion covered by the off-budget European Peace Facility (EPF) instrument.

This support includes EUR 362 million to finance the EU military assistance mission for Ukrainian armed forces. In addition, EUR 1.4 billion of the proceeds stemming from Russia’s sovereign assets collected in 2024 have been allocated to the EPF.

1 1https://european-union.europa.eu/priorities-and-actions/eu-support-ukraine_en

1 ∙ ⸱ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/2pebccz2/20241017-euco-conclusions-en.pdf | | ( | | )As concerns the indirect costs to European economies, the EU has made available an estimate of up to EUR 17 billion through EU Member States to help people fleeing the aggression.

The Commission introduced maximum flexibility so that the Member States can use unspent cohesion funds for this purpose.