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Thèmes du document : Environnement, Énergies, Transports,
178
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
LIVRE BLANC DE LA CONCERTATION ET
BILAN DE LA CONSULTATION
Annexes de la concertation
Ateliers Territoriaux Climat Action Pays Basque - Le jeu
Carnet de voyage
Ceci est votre carnet de voyage, outil indispensable pour réussir
votre parcours ! Tout au long de votre périple, vous allez collecter de
nombreuses informations. Aussi, afin de ne rien oublier, veuillez
noter toutes vos réponses dans ce support.
Logement Agriculture
Energie
renouvelable
CARNET DE VOYAGE | CLIMAT ACTION PAYS BASQUE — LE JEU
matiques pour le terntoire indiquent un possible réchauffement de + 4°C d'ici ls fin du siècle. Votre objectif est de imiter cette augmentation
t d'atteindre une augmentation maximale de + 2°C, permettant de réduire les effets du changement climatique sur le territoire
ke 4° C Comment compter les points :
+ Répondre correctement à une carte « Le saviez-vous » vous permet de
remporter 10 points.
* Jouer une carte thématique (Info/Intox, Débattez, Partagez) vous permet de
remporter 20 points.
* Si vous traitez les 4 thématiques (Habitat durable, Mobilité durable,
Alimentation et agriculture et Energies renouvelables) vous marquez 10
points de bonus.
+ 2°C 1°C = 50 points. Vous devez donc atteindre 100 points pour réussir à limiter l'augmentation de la température à +2°C.
Reportez et totalisez vos points ici :
0 50 100
+ 4°C + 2°C
179
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
1. Carnet de voyage et cartes de jeu CARNET DE VOYAGE | CLIMAT ACTION PAYS BASQUE — LE JEU
d'instructions
Compilez ci-dessous la synthèse de vos échanges. Le consensus n'est pas recherché, aussi, n'hésitez pas à identifier les avis contraires et à les faire
apparaitre
Mobilité durable | Partagez Mobilité durable | Débattez
Besoin du territoire Pourquoi ? Mode utilisé Pourquoi ?
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î
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CARNET DE VOYAGE | CLIMAT ACTION PAYS BASQUE -— LE JEU
Manuel d'instructions
Cor dessous la synthèse de Vos échanges. Le consensus n'est pas recherché, aussi, n'hésitez pas à identifier les avis contraires et à les faire
apparaitre
Habitat durable | Débattez
Les besoins Pourquoi ?
Habitat durable | Partagez
Difficultés rencontrées Pourquoi ?
180
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021 CARNET DE VOYAGE | CLIMAT ACTION PAYS BASQUE — LE JEU
Manuel d'instructions
lez ci-dessous la synlhèse de vos échanges. Le consensus n'est pas recherché, aussi, n'hésitez pas à identifier les avis
Agriculture et alimentation | Partagez
Votre assiette en 2019 Pourquoi ?
Agriculture et alimentation | Débattez
Les enjeux prioritaires Vote des participants
Favoriser le développement de
l'agriculture local
Promouvoir les labels de qualité
Réduire l'impact environnemental
de l'agriculture
Réduire le gaspillage alimentaire
Diversifier les productions
agricoles du territoire
Garantir des prix rémunérateurs
pour les producteurs
Garantir des produits accessibles
(prix)
CARNET DE VOYAGE | CLIMAT ACTION PAYS BASQUE — LE JEU
> la synthèse de vos échanges. Le consensus n esl pas recherché, aussi, n'hésitez pas à identifier les avis contraires et à les faire
apparaître
Energie renouvelable | Partagez Energie renouvelable | Débattez
Les filières adaptées Pourquoi ? Atouts recensées Contraintes recensées
181
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021 CARNET DE VOYAGE | CLIMAT ACTION PAYS BASQUE — LE JEU
Analyse du territoire : Amatxi, Papé, à l'échelle de votre pôle territorial, c'était quoi les enjeux prioritaires ?
Votre voyage touche à sa fin, il est maintenant l'heure d'en faire le bilan. Afin d'effectuer la synthèse de vos échanges, vous devez
«* Hiérarchiserles thématiques de 1 à 4 (1 étant la thématique ayant le plus d'enjeux sur votre pôle territorial
+ Identifier, au regard de vos échanges, les leviers, contraintes, bonnes pratiques majeures à l'échelle du pôle territorial pour chacune des thématiques
Enjeux, leviers, contraintes ou bonnes pratiques identifiés pour chaque thématique
CARNET DE VOYAGE | CLIMAT ACTION PAYS BASQUE — LE JEU
Enjeux, leviers, contraintes ou bonnes pratiques identifiés pour chaque thématique
182
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021 Climat Action Pays Basque - Glossaire
Biomasse : Ensemble de la matière organique d'origine végétale ou animale d'un milieu naturel. Considérée comme source d'énergie la biomasse englobe
les produits et sous-produits du bois, de l'industrie (agroalimentaire notamment), de l'agriculture, des déchets urbains (boues de stations d'épuration, etc).
Biogaz : Gaz produit par la fermentation de matières organiques animales ou végétales en l'absence d'oxygène.
COVNM : Composés Organiques Volatils Non Méthaniques, polluants atmosphériques qui proviennent notamment des transports (pots d'échappement,
évaporation de réservoirs), ainsi que des activités industrielles.
Combustible fossile : Ce sont les combustibles qui contiennent une forte concentration de carbone et qui se trouvent dans le sol (le charbon, le pétrole et
le gaz naturel), Ces sources d'énergie ne sont pas renouvelables car elles demandent des millions d'années pour se constituer et qu'elles sont utilisées
beaucoup plus rapidement que le temps nécessaire pour recréer des réserves
Digestat : Matière solide ou liquide pâteuse, le digestat est un résidu du processus de méthanisation, composée d'éléments organiques non-minéralisés et
de minéraux, utilisé comme fertilisant
Dioxyde de souffre (SO2) : Gaz provenant essentiellement de la combustion du soufre contenu dans les combustibles fossiles utilisés notamment pour
l'industrie ou le chauffage des logements.
Energie houlomotrice : L'énergie houlomotrice est une énergie marine utilisant l'énergie contenue dans le mouvement de la houle, soit les oscillations de la
surface de l'eau (vagues). Cette énergie ne doit pas être confondue avec l'énergie marémotrice, laquelle utilise l'énergie des marées.
Energie Hydraulique : Enérgie fournie par le mouvement de l'eau, sous toutes ses formes : chutes d'eau, cours d'eau, courants marins, marée, vagues
Méthanisation : La méthanisation est un procédé biologique permettant de valoriser des matières organiques en produisant du biogaz qui est source
d'énergie renouvelable et un digestat utilisé comme fertilisant.
Géothermie : La géothermie est l'exploitation de la chaleur stockée dans le sous-sol.
Climat Action Pays Basque - Glossaire
GES : Gaz à effet de serre. Ce sont des composants gazeux qui absorbent le rayonnement infrarouge émis par la surface terrestre et contribuent ainsi à
l'effet de serre. L'augmentation de leur concentration dans l'atmosphère terrestre, engendrées par les activités anthropiques (tous les phénomènes qui
peuvent être conséquents de |a présence ou de l'action de l'être humain), est l'un des facteurs à l'origine du réchauffement climatique.
Mix énergétique : Répartition des différentes sources d'énergies primaires utilisées pour les besoins énergétiques d'une zone géographique donnée.
Oxyde d'azote (Nox) : Composé chimique formé d'oxygène et d'azote, provenant de la combustion de combustibles fossiles (chauffage, carburant) et
procédés industriels.
Particules fines (PM10 et PM2,5) : Les particules en suspension dans l'atmosphère (« poussieres ») sont classées en fonction de leur diametre. Elles
peuvent appartenir à la classe des PM10 (diamètre est inférieur à 10 um) ou à la classe des PM2,5 (diamètre inférieur à 2,5 um). Elles peuvent être
d'origine naturelle (érosion des sols, feux de forêts) où anthropique (combustion, transport, procédés industriels) ét sont aujourd'hul classées cancérigènes
pour l'Homme.
Pompe à chaleur : Mode de chauffage qui fonctionne en puisant la chaleur de l'environnement extérieur pour la transférer à l'intérieur de la maison.
Loi TECV: Loi relative à la transition énergétique pour la croissance verte (LTECV) publiée au Journal Officiel du 18 août 2015.
Solaire thermique : Le solaire thermique consiste à produire de la chaleur à partir des rayons du soleil (exemple : eau chaude sanitaire).
Solaire photovoltaïque : Energie électrique produite à partir du rayonnement solaire grâce à des panneaux où des centrales solaires photovoltaïques.
183
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021 Le saviez-vous ? Le saviez-vous ?
Les objectifs climat air énergie
D'après vous, quel objectif de réduction fixe
la loi de transition énergétique en matière
de :
« Consommation énergétique
“" D'émission de gaz à effet de serre
* De production d'énergie renouvelable
La loi de transition énergétique pour la
croissance verte (LTECV — 2015) fixe les
objectifs suivants :
+ Diviser par 2 la consommation totale
d'énergie d'ici 2050
* Réduire de -40% les émissions de gaz à
effet de serre en 2030 par rapport à
1990
+ Atteindre 32% d'énergies renouvelables
à l'horizon 2030.
En 2004 dans un Plan Climat national,
l'Etat avait fixé l'objectif du Facteur 4 qui
vise à diviser par 4 (-75%) les émissions de
gaz à effet de serre entre 1990 et 2050.
Le saviez-vous ? Le saviez-vous ?
L'évolution du climat sur le Pays Basque
D'après vous, quelle sera la hausse de
température pour le Pays Basque d'ici la fin
du siècle ?
Q +2°C
Q +3°C
Q +4°C
Q +5°C
Selon les scénarios*, l’évolution de la
température annuelle d'ici la fin du siècle
pourrait être de + 4°C.
Sur les cinquante dernières années, au
Pays, on observe une évolution des
températures (+ 0,3 °C par décennie) ainsi
qu'une augmentation du nombre de
journées chaudes, c'est-à-dire supérieures
à 25°C (+ 4 à 8 jours par décennie),
A titre d’information, de la fin de la
dernière ère glaciaire à nos jours la Terre
s'est réchauffée de +5°C.
*Selon les scénarios « pessimistes » du GIEC ne
prévoyant pas de politiques climat ambitieuses.
184
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021 Le saviez-vous ?
Les effets du changement climatique sur
la santé
D'après vous, quels sont les effets du
changement climatique sur la santé ?
Le saviez-vous ?
Les effets du changement climatique sont
susceptibles d’avoir des impacts, directs ou
indirects, sur la santé :
+ La hausse de la fréquence et de
l'intensité des vagues de chaleur aura un
impact sur les populations vulnérables
(enfants, personnes âgées, etc).
+ La dégradation de la qualité de l'air
contribue à l’aggravation de pathologies
cardio-vasculaires et respiratoires
* La baisse de disponibilité en eau, ou la
dégradation de la qualité de l’eau peut
impacter les populations.
* Les aléas climatiques accentués par le
changement climatique pourront
engendrer une hausse des accidents.
Etat de la qualité de l’air du Pays Basque
D'après vous, quel est le secteur le plus
émetteur de polluants atmosphériques au
Pays Basque?
Q L'agriculture
Q Les transports routiers
Q Le résidentiel
L'agriculture est le secteur le plus
émetteur de polluants atmosphériques,
principalement à cause des rejets
d'ammoniac émis par les déjections des
animaux et les engrais azotés utilisés pour
la fertilisation des cultures.
On retrouve ensuite le transport routier,
les moteurs thermiques émettant des
particules fines (PM10 et PM2,5) et de
l'oxyde d'azote.
Enfin, le secteur résidentiel, notamment
dû aux besoins de chauffage, émet des
particules fines (PM10 et PM2.5 et du
dioxyde de souffre)
185
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021 Le saviez-vous ?
Les aléas climatiques
D'après vous, quel est l'aléa climatique
ayant le plus impacté le Pays Basque ces
dernières années ?
Q Les inondations
Q Les tempêtes
Q] Les mouvements de terrain
Le saviez-vous ?
Au Pays Basque, ce sont les aléas liés à
l'eau qui ont l'impact le plus important. En
effet, 40% des arrêtés de catastrophes
naturelles sont dus aux inondations et
coulées de boues et 31% aux inondations
liées aux impacts des vagues sur le littoral.
On distingue trois types d’aléas liés à l'eau
dans le Pays Basque : les inondations, le
ruissellement pluvial et la submersion
marine.
Si ces phénomènes ne sont pas
directement liés au changement
climatique, ce dernier possède un impact
sur l'intensité et la fréquence de ceux-ci.
Le saviez-vous ? Le saviez-vous ?
L'économie circulaire
Amatxi, Papé, l'économie circulaire
correspond uniquement à la gestion des
déchets ?
Q Vrai
Q Faux
Faux, c'est un modèle économique dont
l'objectif est de produire des biens et des
services de manière durable, en limitant la
consommation et le gaspillage des
ressources (matières premières, eau,
énergie) ainsi que la production des
déchets. || s'agit de rompre avec le modèle
de l'économie linéaire (extraire, fabriquer,
consommer, jeter).
186
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021 Le saviez-vous ? Le saviez-vous ?
La séquestration carbone correspond au
captage et au stockage du CO, dans les
écosystèmes (forêt et sol) et dans les
produits issus du bois.
La séquestration carbone
D'après vous, quels sont les milieux ,
ermettant de stocker du carbone ?
é
Pour le ZVRE Er les sols notamment agricoles, jouent un rôle majeur. L'enjeu
est donc de les préserver en luttant contre
le retournement des prairies et
l’artificialisation des sols.
La consommation énergétique finale du
Pays Basque, toutes énergies et tous
secteurs confondus, est estimée à 6 393
GWh (AREC- 2019).
100%
D'après vous, quel est le secteur le plus œ
consommateur d'énergie de votre pôle 10%
territorial ? e
40%
Q L'agriculture 30%
Q Les transports pen
Q Le résidentiel o% Fu S
Le profil énergétique du Pays Basque
$
Q Le tertiaire # S
#: ‘ A os4 < a"# s CA Q L'industrie F é s 5 # SE S S € * maAgriculture ra = industrie
Ÿ 2 Transport
m Tertiaire
Bfésidentiel
187
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021 Le saviez-vous ? Le saviez-vous ?
Les émissions de gaz à effet de serre du
Pays Basque, tous secteurs confondus,
Le profil gaz à effet de serre du Pays sont estimées à 2 235 ktCO2 (AREC -
Basque 2019).
100%
90%
à 80%
D'après vous, quel est le secteur le plus 70%
émetteur de gaz à effet de serre de votre 60%
pôle territorial ? SE 4%
, 30%
Q L'agriculture 20%
Q Les transports 10% 0%
S Fos ù S S € &
S SE NE Q Le résidentiel de S rs S © Q Le tertiaire Lé NÉ. 0. Ne à z . S PS & o $° & Ÿ PC O L'industrie FE SOS À # CS S sAgooilture rs Æindustie & a Transports < 2 Tertiaire
: BRésidentiel
D'après le Bureau de Recherches
Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) on
observe une augmentation d'environ 2
Élévation du niveau de la mer mm/an depuis 1940 avec une accélération notable de cette augmentation depuis les
années 1990 D'après vous, quel est le rythme d'élévation
du niveau de la mer ?
Le Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental
Q Le niveau de la mer est stable sur l'évolution du climat (GIEC) prévoit une
Q Augmentation de moins de 1 mm/an élévation du niveau des mers et océans
Q Augmentation de 2 à 3 mm/an comprise entre 26 et 77 centimètres d'ici à
Q Augmentation de plus de 4mm/an 2100.
Ce phénomène favorisera de nombreux
aléas (submersion marine, érosion, etc.)
188
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021 Habitat durable Mobilité durable
|Partagez|
Amatxi, Papé, est-ce que vous aussi vous avez
rencontré des difficultés liées à l'énergie dans votre
logement ?
Chaque participant est invité à partager un retour
d'expérience, vécu ou rencontré, sur l'énergie dans le
logement :
* Difficulté pour 5e lancer dans des travaux de rénovation,
* Difficulté pour payer ses factures (précarité énergétique),
* Difficulté pour identifier comment effectuer des économies
d'énergies,
* Autres (expliquez)
Reportez vos retours d'expérience dans le carnet de voyage
(D
|Partagez|
Amatxi, Papé, vous vous déplaciez comment en 2019
pour vous rendre à votre travail ? Et pourquoi?
Chaque participant est invité à indiquer le mode qu'il
utilise principalement pour se rendre au travail/école et
expliquer la raison de son choix :
# Pas d’autres solutions connues à disposition
# Solution la plus rapide
# Solution la plus économique
“ Autres (expliquez)
Reportez votre solution dans le carnet de voyage
Alimentation et agriculture
|Partagez|
Amatxi, Papé, vous mettiez quoi dans votre assiette en
2019 ?
Chaque participant est invité à choisir l'affirmation qui
caractérise le plus ses choix en matière d'alimentation.
Expliquez pourquoi.
“Ma priorité c’est le bio
‘Ma priorité c'est les produits locaux et de saison
“Je sélectionne des produits bio ET locaux
“Je ne fais pas particulièrement attention à ces critères (choix,
prix, diversité de produits)
Reportez vos retours d'expérience dans le carnet de voyage
Energie renouvelable
|Partagez|
Amatxi, Papé, en 2019 quelles étaient les contraintes
pour le développement des énergies renouvelables ?
Chaque participant est invité à identifier les atouts et
les contraintes du pôle territorial pour le
développement des énergies renouvelables :
Reportez votre réponse dans le carnet de voyage
189
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021 Habitat durable Mobilité durable
|Débattez|
Amatxi, Papé, vos logements étaient le 1°
consommateur d'énergie du Pays Basque. Pourquoi
vous n'arriviez pas à réduire leur consommation
énergétique ?
Chaque participant, indique son besoin prioritaire, à
l'échelle du pôle territorial pour réduire les
consommations des logements. Expliquez pourquoi.
Mon besoin c'est d'avoir :
* Des informations sur les éco-gestes
“ Des aides financières et techniques à la rénovation
* Un accompagnement pour identifier les travaux à réaliser,
connaître les artisans qualifiés du territoire
“ Aütres (expliquez)
Reportez vos choix dans le carnet de voyage
|Débattez|
Amatxi, Papé, plus de 80% des déplacements sur le Pays
Basque étaient réalisés dans un véhicule individuel (= 1
personne dans un véhicule). Pourquoi n'utilisiez-vous pas
d’autres solutions ?
Chaque participant, indique son besoin prioritaire, à
l'échelle du pôle territorial, pour réduire l'usage de la
voiture individuelle. Expliquez pourquoi.
Mon besoin c'est d'avoir :
+ Des transports en commun,
“Des infrastructures pour les modes actifs (vélo, marche à pied),
“Des solutions de partage de la voiture (covoiturage, autostop),
“La possibilité de réduire mes déplacements (télétravail, etc),
# Pouvoir utiliser des voitures « propres ».
“ Autres (expliquez)
Reportez vos choix dans le carnet de voyage
Alimentation et agriculture
|Débattez|
Amatxi, Papé, qu'est-ce que ça voulait dire pour vous
développer une alimentation et agriculture durable ?
Chaque participant dispose de 3 points, qu'il répartit
comme il le souhaite sur les enjeux suivants au regard
de leur priorité pour favoriser une alimentation et
agriculture durable :
Favoriser le développement de l'agriculture locale
“Promouvoir les labels de qualité
“Réduire l'impact environnemental de l'agriculture
“ Réduire le gaspillage alimentaire
* Diversifier les productions agricoles du territoire
“Garantir des prix rémunérateurs pour les producteurs
Ÿ Garantir des produits accessibles (prix)
Reportez vos choix dans le carnet de voyage
Energie renouvelable
|Débattez|
Amatxi, Papé, en 2019 au Pays Basque quelles étaient,
selon vous, les types de production d'énergie
renouvelable les plus adaptées à votre pôle territorial?
Chaque participant est invité à indiquer les filières de
production d'énergies renouvelables qui semblent
adaptées au pôle territorial parmi : solaire (thermique ou
photovoltaïque), éolien, hydraulique, méthanisation, bois
énergie, énergie houlomotrice, autres (géothermie, etc.)
Reportez votre solution dans le carnet de voyage
190
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021 Habitat durable Habitat durable
Info !
En 2019 les logements sont la principale
[Info ou intox ?|
Amatxi, Papé, est-ce vrai que les source de consommation d'énergie sur le
consommations énergétiques de vos logements Pays Basque (37% des consommations
étaient majoritairement engendrées par les totales).
besoins de chauffage ?
Ces consommations sont majoritairement
dédiées au besoin de chauffage (68% des
consommations d'énergie du logement
dédiées au chauffage).
Mobilité durable Mobilité durable
Intox !
l Info ou intox ? | Sur le territoire du Pays Basque, les transports sont le 2è"e secteur émetteur
de gaz à effet de serre (33% des émissions
Amatxi, Papé, est-ce vrai que les transports totales) derrière l'agriculture (38%) étaient le secteur le plus consommateur
d'énergie et le plus émetteur de gaz à effet de En revanche, c'est uniquement le 2ème
serre du Pays Basque ? revanche, uniq | secteur consommateur d'énergie (36% des consommations totales) derrière le secteur
résidentiel (37%).
Attention, était-ce bien le cas sur votre
hd pôle territorial ? Pour le savoir, continuez de jouer !
191
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021 Alimentation et agriculture
[Info ou intox ?|
Amatxi, Papé, est-ce vrai que l'agriculture
basque était peu émettrice de polluants ?
Alimentation et agriculture
Intox !
Au Pays Basque, l’agriculture est le secteur
le plus émetteur en tonnes de polluants
atmosphériques émises par an.
Ceci s'explique par un important rejet
d'ammoniac (NH3), émis par les déjections
des animaux et les engrais azotés utilisés
pour la fertilisation des cultures.
L'agriculture basque, à dominance
d'élevage est fortement émettrice de gaz à
effet de serre. Cependant, elle dispose
d'un potentiel important de stockage du
carbone.
[Info ou intox ?|
Amatxi, Papé, est-ce vrai que les énergies
renouvelables représentaient moins de 15% des
consommations énergétiques du Pays Basque à
votre époque ?
Energie renouvelable Energie renouvelable
Info !
Les énergies renouvelables produisent
780,7 GWh et couvrent environ 12,2% des
consommations énergétiques du Pays
Basque.
La production d'énergie renouvelable au
Pays Basque est largement dominée par le
bois-énergie (65% de la production).
192
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PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
2. Atelier Iholdi-Oztibarre
GROUPE 1 (8 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Faible prise de conscience sur notre niveau de consommation
* Rénovation/isolation : renforcer l'information sur les dispositifs et les aides financières, difficultés liées à la taille des maisons
* Faire évoluer les comportements dans la maison (conso d'eau et d'élec)
* Abandonner les produits domestiques polluants
Mobilité
* Réduire nos déplacements
* déplacer le siège de la CAPB
* Zone rurale : éloignement du lieu de travail et faible offre de TC
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Renforcer la production locale de qualité : favoriser les circuits courts (ex : AMAP), favoriser l'auto alimentation potagère
* Enjeux nutritionnels des produits de 1er prix
* Renforcer le potentiel de stockage de CO2
* Limite : pouvoir d'achat des ménages
* Diagnostiquer le potentiel de méthanisation des "déchets" des fermes
Energies
renouvelables
* Diagnostiquer le potentiel de méthanisation des "déchets des fermes
* Eolien : développer en limitant les impacts
* Bois NRJ : garantir la replantation et le renouvellement de la ressource
* Eolien : continuer à développer le PV 194
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
3. Atelier Errobi
GROUPE 1 (5 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Rénovation du parc de logement : renforcer la communication et l'information sur les dispositifs existants (PIG, OPAH, etc…)
* Patrimoine public : diagnostiquer finement les consommations énergétiques de l'ensemble du parc
* Expérimenter une banque de temps
Mobilité
* Faire évoluer les habitudes et notre zone de confort pour augmenter la fréquentation des TC * Renforcer la communication sur les dispositifs alternatifs à la voiture : cf. location et aide à l'achat de VAE
* Favoriser les pratiques alternatives par des dispositifs financiers
* Expérimenter une banque de temps
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Favoriser le bio et le local
* Entretiens espaces verts : abandonner l'usage des phyto (cf. pratiques des particuliers), réduire l'entretien et le débroussaillage inutile
* Expérimenter une banque de temps
Energies
renouvelables
* Bois NRJ : filière privilégiée, à condition d'assurer un approvisionnement local et d'assurer le renouvellement de la ressource (replantation)
* Cout d'investissement
* Eolien sur l'Artzamendi 195
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
GROUPE 2 (5 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Information sur les dispositifs d'accompagnement / réhabilitation de l'ancien / sites classés * Foncier : limiter les consommations
* Généraliser les DPE et accompagner les travaux de rénovation et le remplacement des équipements de chauffage
Mobilité
* Diversifier les solutions alternatives
*Développer le partage des voitures
* Développer des pistes cyclables sécurisées
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Développer les vergers
* Développer les potagers partagés
* Installer un maraicher par village
* Installer un maraicher par village
Energies
renouvelables
* Développer la filière d'appro bois NRJ sur Errobi
* Mettre en service les vieux moulins
* Valoriser la biomasse agricole 196
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
GROUPE 3 (5 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Pratiques et confort dans le bâtiment
* Couts des travaux de rénovation
* Critères d'éligibilité des aides trop restrictifs
* freins administratifs cf. ABF
* Optimiser ces consommations : thermostat, récupérateur eau de pluie, eau chaude instantanée, développer les écogestes etc..
* Manque d'information sur les alternatives et les dispositifs d'accompagnement * Difficulté pour identifier les artisans favorisant et préconisant les solutions alternatives
Mobilité * Développer et diversifier les alternatives à la voiture : réseaux cyclables, dispositif local de covoiturage courte distance, optimiser la ligne Garazi-Bayonne
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Favoriser l'agriculture local et mettre en place des magasins de producteurs * réduire l'impact environnemental de l'agriculture
* Garantir des prix rémunérateurs pour les producteurs
Energies
renouvelables
* Eolien : ne pas privilégier cf. nuisances sonores, esthétiques
* Développer la méthanisation en zone
* Mettre en service les moulins 197
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
4. Atelier Amikuze
GROUPE 1 (5personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat * Manque d'information sur les dispositifs d'accompagnement * Besoin d'accompagnement financier sur les TVX de réno
Mobilité * Diminuer l'utilisation individuelle de la voiture par le développement du TC, du télétravail et du voiturage
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Garantir des prix rémunérateur
* Favoriser le développement de l'agriculture locale et les produits de qualité
Energies
renouvelables
* Favoriser le PV, l'hydroéléc (cf. Bidouze) et le bois (cf. bois de mixe)
* Acceptabilité des projets éoliens ?
* Méthaniser la fauche des bords de
route 198
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
GROUPE 2 (5personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Manque d'information sur les dispositifs d'accompagnement
* Coût des investissements en particulier dans le bâti ancien
* Information sur les dispositifs et accompagnement au montage des dossiers * Renforcer l'accompagnement financier, en priorité sur le bâti ancien
Mobilité
* Zone rurale : absence de TC, besoin d'autonomie
* Développer : le covoiturage, le TC et le TAD et les véhicules électriques
* Relocaliser l'activité économique
* TAD : renforcer l'offre au-delà des
trajets vers la centralité (St Palais)
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Renforcer l'information sur l'origine des produits
* Favoriser le bio local
* Production de pattes bio locale
* Inciter et accompagner l'autonomie au jardin (potager et poulailler) en favorisant les espèces adaptées et résistantes
Energies
renouvelables
* Développer le PV et le solaire thermique
* Eolien : vigilance quant à la biodiversité et la préservation des paysages
* Développer le bois NRJ : garantir le reboisement
* Planter des haies pour faire du bois
NRJ
* Développer des turbines sans seuil
au niveau des ponts 199
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
GROUPE 3 (5 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Accompagnement au changement des comportements et repenser notre confort dans le bâtiment (rmq : remplacement d'équipement de chauffage pour PLUS chauffer et pas MIEUX chauffer)
* Indentification des bonnes solutions techniques et de professionnels qualifiés, fiables et convaincus
Mobilité
* Accompagnement au changement des comportements et repenser nos besoins de déplacements
* TC : renforcer l'offre pour stimuler la demande
* Développer les infrastructures pour le vélo
* Relocaliser l'activité économique
* Développer un service ambulant de
livraison à faible émission pour les
villages en zone rurale
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Renforcer la sensibilisation Santé-Alimentation
* Développer les filières locales et de qualité
* Renforcer l'information sur l'origine des produits
Energies
renouvelables
* Eolien : travaux d'accès, d'aménagement et de raccordement au réseau
* Photo Voltaïque (PV) privé : faible rentabilité et risques financiers
* Hydroélec : mise en service et augmentation de la production des moulins existants 200
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
5. Atelier Soule-Xiberoa
GROUPE 1
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Généraliser les diagnostics des performances NRJ des bâtiments et valoriser en parallèle les gains potentiels
* Rénovation/isolation : limite liée à la taille des maisons et du taux d'occupation * rénovation : déficit d'information et d'accompagnement
Mobilité
* Nuancer l'analyse des enjeux et des besoins par territoire
* Interroger notre rapport au temps cf. exigence d'instantanéité
* Faire évoluer nos comportements nos habitudes cf. acceptation de l'autostop * Insécurité des déplacements actifs
* Construire l'exemplarité des déplacement de la CAPB : diagnostiquer le temps de déplacements, les Km parcourus et les couts des déplacements élus et agents + mettre en place des actions (ex: développer la visioconférence, le covoiturage, etc..)
* Mutualiser les services : ouvrir le transport scolaire aux passagers
* Augmenter la taxe carbone
* recruter un animateur/coordinateur des services de mobilités par territoire
* Mutualiser les services : ouvrir le
transport scolaire aux passagers
* Recruter un
animateur/coordinateur des services
de mobilités par territoire
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Favoriser le local, la qualité et la saisonnalité
* Faible production maraichères (rmq : sur le potentiel agronomique limité des sols): malgré tout renforcer la production
* Maintien de l'élevage, notamment pour maintenir les milieux ouverts en montagne * Vigilance sur le bio: fiabilité des labels, empreinte carbone,...
Energies
renouvelables
* Blocage administratif (DDTM, ABF, Armée)
* Résistance des riverains 201
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
6. Atelier Côte Basque Adour
GROUPE 1 (4 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Manque d'information sur les dispositifs d'accompagnement (technique et financier) * Développer l'habitat durable et écoresponsable : matériaux biosourcés dans la construction, arbres et fontaines en ville, composteurs collectifs, buanderie collective
* Mutualiser les services : médiathèques, salle de spectacle, complexes sportifs, etc…
Mobilité
* TC : durée des trajets trop long (3X) + pbm de fréquence, de déserte et de ponctualité, abri bus non aménagé (non couvert)
* véhicules élec : trop cher et pbm de recyclage
* Développer les mobilités douces : mettre en place des réseaux de pistes cyclables, des garages à vélo ou arceaux
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Développer le bio, le local et la saisonnalité
* Assurer des prix accessibles
Energies
renouvelables * Dispositif d'incitation voire contrainte réglementaire de production d'EnR 202
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
GROUPE 2 (4 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat * Développer l'habitat durable et passif * Renforcer l'accompagnent technique et financier
Mobilité * Augmenter le TC, les modes actifs et le télétravail * Informer sur l'impact écologique et le bilan carbone des déplacements
Alimentation -
Agriculture * Développer et aider l'agriculture locale
Energies
renouvelables
* Renforcer l'information et l'accompagnement
* Favoriser voire obliger la production sur les bâtiments publics et gros bâtiments privés * développer l'NRJ houlomotrice et la marémotrice
* Favoriser l'autoconsommation collective 203
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
GROUPE 3 (4 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat * Mettre en place un Guichet Unique et renforcer l'accompagnement technique et financier * Prioriser l'action sur les passoires thermiques
Mobilité
* Développement des infrastructures de TC et des modes actifs : linéaire, cadencements, continuité, zone 30km/h et 20km/h, P+R
* Mettre en œuvre le plan vélo
* Développer une offre ferroviaire locale et quotidienne type topo
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Développer l'agriculture paysanne, bio et locale
* Diversifier la production et accompagner le développement du maraichage * sanctuariser du foncier agricole
* limiter l'écobuage
Energies
renouvelables
* Etudier les potentialités des territoires (géothermie, houlomoteur, etc)
* Réduire l'empreinte carbone des équipements PV
* Intégrer les enjeux de qualité de l'air avant de lancer les projets cf. méthanisation * Développer l'éolien offshore
* Enjeux qualité de l'air en amont des
projets
* Eolien Offshore 204
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
GROUPE 4 (4 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Lois, couts, mentalité
* Densifier
* Mieux communiquer sur les dispositifs d'aide financier et technique
* Développer la filière laine d'isolation
* Favoriser les isolations perspirantes pour éviter les VMC
* Autoriser les poêles en centre villes
* Développer de nouveaux réseaux de chaleur en zone urbaine
* Développer la filière laine d'isolation
Mobilité
* Développer les TC
* Développer les pistes vélos sécurisée et co-biking
* Développer le rézopouce en zone urbaine
* Mettre à disposition des consignes en ville et sur les plages
* Développer l'autostop
* Développer le covoiturage
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Développer le maraichage urbain
* Renforcer les circuits courts et la consommation locale
Energies
renouvelables
* Etudier le potentiel d'EnR liée à l'océan et de géothermie
* Développer le solaire thermique et la méthanisation sous certaine condition * Recherche sur la fabrication de
panneaux solaire sans métaux rares 205
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
7. Atelier Sud Pays Basque
GROUPE 1 (4 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat * Développer l'information et les aides : mettre en place un guichet unique
Mobilité
* Adapter l'offre de TC
* Développer les mobilités douces
* Développer le covoiturage
* Inciter à la conversion des véhicules
Alimentation -
Agriculture * Réorienter la production vers les besoins nutritionnels
Energies
renouvelables * Lever les blocages administratifs et réglementaires 206
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
GROUPE 2 (5 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Développer l'accompagnement objectif du plus grand nombre
* Cibler les aides financières
* Sensibiliser et diffuser les bonnes pratiques les écogestes
Mobilité
* Promotion des déplacements doux
* Promouvoir le covoiturage courtes distances
* Construire une offre ferroviaire nord sud à l'image du TOPO en s'appuyant sur les infrastructures existantes (gares)
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Privilégier le local et la qualité
* Diminuer l'utilisation des produits chimiques dans l'agriculture
* Développer les circuits courts
Energies
renouvelables
* Attention de préserver la qualité paysagère
* Identifier les secteurs d'implantation des installation en privilégiant les ZAC, zones industrielles (id: imposer une part de production): les retranscrire dans les doc de planif et d'urbanisme
* Etudier la faisabilité et la rentabilité de NRJ marines (quid de l'impact sur la pêche) 207
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
GROUPE 3 (4 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Rénovation : renforcer l'accompagnement technique et financier
* Réduction des conso d'eau : favoriser l'installation des deux circuits pour faciliter l'utilisation des eaux de pluies
* Economies d'NRJ : mettre en place des défis familles entre villes
* Réduction des conso d'eau :
favoriser l'installation des deux
circuits pour faciliter l'utilisation des
eaux de pluies
* Economies d'NRJ : mettre en place
des défis familles entre villes
Mobilité
* Développer les TC : fréquence et maillage
* Développer les aménagements cyclables sécurisés
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Poursuivre le rapprochement producteurs - consommateurs
* Favoriser l'appro local dans les cantines
Energies
renouvelables
* Etudier les faisabilités de développer les NRJ marines
* PV sur toiture
* Méthanisation (agriculture et déchets) 208
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
GROUPE 4 (4 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Information sur les techniques de rénovation, les dispositifs d'accompagnement et de conseil avec un tiers de confiance, les gains potentiels
* sensibiliser le public aux usages économes, à la diminution du chauffage…
Mobilité
* Diminuer les déplacements en voiture seul : taxer l'autosolisme, inciter les employeurs à développer des offres/services (transport grouper, IKV...)
* Développer le cadencement du TC avec véhicules adaptés
* Développer des cheminement vélo et piétons
* réduire les déplacements : télétravail - numérique
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Favoriser le dev de l'agri local et de qualité en maîtrisant les prix
* Diversifier les productions locales
Energies
renouvelables
* Diminuer les consommations d'élec (habitat, éclairage public, température de chauffage, …) * Eolien : préservation du patrimoine paysager
* Méthanisation : gisement méthanisable insuffisant 209
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
8. Atelier Nive Adour
GROUPE 1 (4 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Diffuser l'information et garantir sa neutralité et sa fiabilité sur : réduction des consommations (équipement de chauffage performant / types d'NRJ et comportement /écogestes) et les dispositifs d'accompagnement pour les travaux de rénovation
Mobilité
* Développer le TC et notamment le transport fluvial de personnes
* Faire évoluer nos comportements et réduire nos déplacements en optimisant nos parcours : sobriété des déplacements
* Développer le covoiturage courte distance
* Développer le transport fluvial de
personne
* Collecte déchet ou transport
scolaire en traction animale
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Accompagner les production locale et raisonnée
* Renforcer la production bio locale
* Programme de réduction du gaspillage élémentaire
* Garantir des prix rémunérateurs aux producteurs
Energies
renouvelables
* Commencer par réduire nos consommations (cf. TC et traction animale)
*Photovoltaïque : réduire l'empreinte de la fabrication et du recyclage
* Renforcer la production hydro 210
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
GROUPE 2 (4 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Renforcer et systématiser la formation (scolaire, collège, lycée, université) sur les consommations d'NRJ : mettre en place un service d'ambassadeur de l'NRJ * Construire des dispositifs d'intéressement fiscal pour les engagements dans de la basse consommation ou de l'intégration d'EnR dans le bâtiment
* Renforcer les aides financières pour la rénovation
Mobilité
* Développer toute les alternatives à la voiture individuelle
* TC : augmenter la fréquence et la desserte du territoire
* Fluvial : mettre en place une offre entre le pôle et Bayonne
* Covoiturage : offres courtes distances et développer la mixité des solutions * Sécuriser les mode actifs
* Favoriser le télétravail
* Ferroviaire : s'appuyer sur la gare du territoire, assurer des trajets A/R, renforcer la fréquence * Trukatu /badjoto : dispositif non conduit à terme mais expérimentation pertinente
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Développer les commerces de proximités, groupement d'achats, AMAP
* Soutenir la production locale et garantir des prix rémunérateurs
* Campagne de lutte contre le gaspillage alimentaire
Energies
renouvelables
* Intégrer des obligations d'EnR dans les marchés publics
* Obliger la production d'EnR sur les bâtiments publics
* Accompagner le financement des projets de productions
* Construire des PLUi facilitateur / ambitieux 211
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
GROUPE 3 (4 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Renforcer l'accompagnement technique
* Renforcer la communication la sensibilisation sur les écogestes
* Modifier nos habitudes et remettre en question notre confort (chauffage)
Mobilité
* Modes actifs : développer des cheminements sécurisés
* Eviter les déplacements : favoriser le télétravail
* TC : améliorer la fréquence et la desserte du territoire
Alimentation -
Agriculture
Energies
renouvelables
* Développer l'NRJ solaire sur toiture
* Bois NRJ : fort potentiel (densité d'habitat et ressource naturelle disponible) * Méthaniser nos déchets 212
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
GROUPE 4 (4 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat * Réduire nos consommations * Renforcer l'accompagnement technique et financier
Mobilité
* Réduire l'usage de la voiture individuelle
* Gratuité des TC
* Développement des cheminements cyclables sécurisés
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Limiter la pollution de l'air et des sols
* Développer les circuits courts
* Renforcer la part du bio dans la restauration collective
Energies
renouvelables
* Limiter le recours aux NRJ fossiles
* Tendre vers l'indépendance énergétique
* Réduire les consommations énergétiques
* Eolien en bord d'Adour 213
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
GROUPE 5 (4 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat * Renforcer la communication et l'information sur les dispositifs d'accompagnement * Mettre en place un guichet unique CAPB
Mobilité
* Promouvoir les mobilités douces
* Desservir en TC le Centre européen de fret (+ 1000 salariés)
* Développer le transport ferroviaire
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Développer les circuits courts
* Promouvoir les nombreuse initiatives locales
* Préserver les zones agricoles dans les PLU
Energies
renouvelables * Relancer le barrage flottant Urt/Urcuit et valoriser la biomasse collectée 214
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
9. Atelier Pays de Bidache
GROUPE 1 (5 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Rénovation : manque d'information et de moyen
* Diagnostiquer les maisons insalubres et les vielles bâtisses occupées
* Rénovation : développer une logique portée sur les besoins et pas sur les revenus * Renforcer les dispositifs locaux d'accompagnement technique et financier et garantir leur bonne communication
Mobilité
* Développer les TC : fréquence
* Développer les aires de covoiturage
* Développer le renouvellement des flottes par des véhicules moins émetteurs
Alimentation -
Agriculture * Favoriser le développement d'une agriculture raisonnée et d'une alimentation locale
Energies
renouvelables
* Développer l'énergie solaire : bon ensoleillement et implantation disponible (cf. toiture et ancienne carrière-Bardos-Etchelecou)
* Développer la méthanisation : valoriser les déchets des productions agricoles 215
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GROUPE 2 (5 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Manque de conseillers indépendants sur les économies d'énergies
* Trop de contraintes administratives
* Coût des travaux trop élevé
Mobilité
* Développer les aires de covoiturage (zéro sur le pôle)
* Desservir les petites communes en TC
* Développer le très haut débit pour favoriser le télétravail
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Développer l'agriculture local et les circuits courts
* Campagne de réduction du gaspillage alimentaire
Energies
renouvelables * Développer l'hydroélectricité et le photovoltaïque (notamment sur bâtiment agricole) 216
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GROUPE 3 (6 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Lutte contre la précarité énergétique
* Défi Famille
* Rénovation : manque d'information, méfiance quant aux gains et à la fiabilité des artisans et donc blocage sur l'engagement
* Economie d'énergie : diffuser un guide au grand public
Mobilité * Développer le TC et les alternatives à la voiture * Développer des réseaux cyclables
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Manque d'offre bio local (attention sur l'origine du bio)
* Développer et diversifier le production locale
* Sensibiliser à la consommation saisonnière
Energies
renouvelables
* Solaire
* Méthanisation 217
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10. Atelier Pays d’Hasparren
GROUPE 1 (5 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Rénovation : contrainte administrative et réglementaire (ABF, site classé, etc) * Information : difficulté pour identifier des artisans qualifiés, fiables et de bon conseil (techniques d'isolation) * Couts des travaux
* Développer une stratégie d'aménagement et de gestion du foncier
* Renforcer la communication sur les dispositifs d'accompagnement
* Renforcer la formation des artisans et des professionnels sur les différentes techniques d'isolation, les différents équipements de chauffage et l'usage des matériaux renouvelables dans la construction * lever certaines contraintes d'urbanismes (ex: toilettes sèches)
Mobilité
* Renforcer la sensibilisation des différents publics, en particulier les parents d'élèves * TC : augmenter la fréquence et adapter les horaires
* Péage urbain entrée cœur de ville
* Développer les parking covoiturage et renforcer leur signalétique
* Développer le covoiturage pour les petits trajets
* Billettique : harmoniser et simplifier
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Favoriser le local et de saison
* Garantir des prix rémunérateurs
* Renforcer la traçabilité des produits et garantir leur origine
* Développer des solidarités/complémentarités avec les territoires voisins (landais, hegoalde) notamment sur les productions
* Faire évoluer la formation agricole
Energies
renouvelables
* Commencer par réduire nos consommations
* Bois NRJ
* Solaire : favoriser le thermique car stockage possible
* Hydro élec : ressource renouvelable et équipement disponibles
* Méthanisation : ressource disponible 218
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GROUPE 2 (5 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat * Renforcer les informations, le conseil et l'accompagnement sur : les énergies (types, fournisseurs, mode de chauffage), les matériaux d'isolation et la rentabilité des installations
Mobilité
* Coût des véhicules propres
* Faible équipement en borne de recharges élec
* Enjeu de mobilité lié à l'accès à l'emploi des jeunes
* Rompre l'isolement des personnes
* Développer un Blablacar local pour les courtes distances
Alimentation -
Agriculture * Maintenir les filières locales de qualité
Energies
renouvelables
* Tendre vers l'autosuffisance
* Lever les blocages administratifs 219
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11. Atelier Garazi-Baigorri
GROUPE 1 (5 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Rénovation : manque d'information sur les dispositifs d'accompagnement * Rénovation : coût des travaux
* Point info NRJ plus mobile et plus proactif
Mobilité
* Ligne Garazi-Bayonne : augmenter la fréquence et adapter les horaires
* Covoiturage : développer une application locale et interactive courte distance * Cyclabilité : développer des réseaux cyclables sécurisés
* Cheval : schoolbus et ramassage des poubelles
* Cheval : schoolbus
et ramassage des
poubelles
Alimentation -
Agriculture * Favoriser l'agriculture local et garantir des prix rémunérateurs pour les producteurs
Energies
renouvelables
Méthanisation : gisement d'intrant agricole important et débouchée pour la mobilité alternative au diesel * Bois NRJ : ressource locale disponible
* Hydro : blocages administratifs
* Eolien : contraintes réglementaires et écologiques
* Solaire : ABF 220
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GROUPE 2 (6 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Manque d'information et de sensibilisation sur les écogestes
* Rénovation : disposer d'un conseiller NRJ sur le territoire et d'accompagnement/incitation financière * Location : beaucoup de passoir énergétique, difficulté d'entrainer le proprio dans la rénovation
Mobilité
* Autosolisme : seule solution disponible et l'option la plus courte
* TC dont Train : augmenter la fréquence et la régularité et baisser les tarifs * Modes actifs : développer les infrastructures
Alimentation -
Agriculture * Favoriser l'agriculture locale et paysanne
Energies
renouvelables
* Beaucoup d'atouts (soleil, bois, agriculture/métha, rivière) : besoin d'un grand impulseur pour lever les blocages et accompagner les projets 221
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GROUPE 3 (6 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat * Reduction des consommations : isolation, écogestes, éclairage basse conso et électroménager économe
Mobilité
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Sensibiliser les consommateurs à l'achat de produits locaux et de saison
* Sensibiliser/informer les consommateurs sur la composition de produits transformés * Valoriser les agriculteurs engagés dans des démarches vertueuses
Energies
renouvelables
* Bois NRJ
* Hydro
* Solaire 222
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GROUPE 4 (5 personnes)
Enjeux – Leviers – Contraintes - Bonnes pratiques
Synthèse Idées innovantes
Habitat
* Diagnostic des performances énergétiques des bâtiments : renforcer l'accompagnement * Isolation : communiquer sur les dispositifs d'accompagnement et renforcer les aides en particulier pour l'ancien
* Réduire notre confort l'hiver : chauffer raisonnablement
Mobilité
* TC : augmenter et adapter les horaires
* Développer le covoiturage courte distance
* Faire évoluer les flottes des véhicules par des véhicules propres
Alimentation -
Agriculture
* Compostage
* Accompagner le développement des circuits courts afin notamment de réduire les transports * Garantir des prix accessibles
Energies
renouvelables
* Solaire
* Réseaux de chaleur
* Hydro
* Eolien offshore 223
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LIVRE BLANC DE LA CONCERTATION ET
BILAN DE LA CONSULTATION
Annexes de la concertation
Contributions des internautes sur la
plateforme « Climat Action Pays
Basque »
Fichiers partagés atelier « Habitat
durable » «Se concentrer sur la mise en œuvre concrète de nos actions»
Julien Denormandie, ministre du Logement et de la Ville
Propos recueillis par Barbara Kiraly, Fabien Renou et Sophie Vincelot | le
24/10/2019 | Julien Denormandie, Ministère du Logement, Budget 2020, APL, Bailleurs sociaux
Le ministre du Logement défend son budget pour 2020 et dévoile sa méthode pour vérifier que les politiques publiques sont appliquées sur le terrain.
(…)
« Avec le zonage de projet, le préfet de région définira les
zones éligibles au Pinel avec les élus locaux. »
Pourquoi avoir attendu les débats sur le projet de loi de finances 2020 pour lancer le « zonage de projet », qui permet de bénéficier à titre expérimental du Pinel dans les zones B2 ?
Tout simplement parce qu'il fallait un véhicule législatif.
Nous expérimenterons le dispositif en Bretagne pour donner plus de visibilité et de stabilité aux acteurs, mais aussi pour territorialiser nos politiques. Le préfet de région, en discussion avec les élus locaux, définira les zones éligibles au dispositif Pinel. On ne peut pas rendre compte des réalités territoriales avec cinq zones définies nationalement, ça ne peut pas fonctionner convenablement. Il faut sortir du « tout-zonage ».
C'est ce que nous avons fait avec le Denormandie dans l'ancien. Ce dispositif fiscal territorial n'est pas déployé en fonction des zones, mais des projets territoriaux [dès que les collectivités lancent une ORT, elles deviennent éligibles, NDLR]. 224
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
LIVRE BLANC DE LA CONCERTATION ET
BILAN DE LA CONSULTATION
Annexes de la concertation
Contributions des internautes sur la
plateforme « Climat Action Pays
Basque »
Fichiers partagés atelier « Mobilité
durable » TN
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
EKARPENA / CONTRIBUTION
Contribution à l’élaboration du PDU (Plan de déplacements urbains)
Plaidoyer pour de
nouvelles mobilités en
Pays Basque
Adoptée par le Conseil de direction le 14 mai 2019 SN
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
EKARPENAREN GOGOA / L’ESPRIT DE LA CONTRIBUTION
En 2005, le Conseil de développement et le Conseil des élus font du transport l’un des principaux ateliers de la démarche « Pays Basque 2020 ». Un an de travaux, co-animés par Jean-René ETCHEGARAY (CEPB, Conseil des élus) et Michel CASTEIGTS (CDPB, Conseil de développement), qui constituent sans doute le premier exercice de cette ampleur en Pays Basque. Cet atelier de Pays Basque 2020, d’abord orienté sur les infrastructures, se penchera sur de nombreux projets alors en débat : LGV, A63, 2x3 voies en Basse-Navarre, traversées des Pyrénées… Très rapidement, le diagnostic fait apparaître que le défi essentiel porte plus sur les trafics locaux que sur le transit, plus sur la mobilité et l’offre de transport que sur les infrastructures. Les chiffres sont alarmants quant à l’usage de la voiture individuelle sur les axes routiers de la côte, et entre Cambo et Bayonne… Le BAB apparaît comme l’une des agglomérations les plus en retard au regard de l’usage élevé de la voiture - et faible du transport en commun – qui y est fait.
L’une des orientations phares de Pays Basque 2020 était d’élaborer un « Schéma des déplacements en Pays Basque » pour rebâtir l’offre de bus et des lignes ferroviaires secondaires, revoir les politiques de stationnement, favoriser les modes doux et toutes les solutions d’intermodalité… Autre orientation majeure : élaborer un « cadre de références » en matière d’aménagement durable du territoire.
A partir de 2007, les élus et acteurs du Pays Basque se saisissent du dossier transport et l’offre s’améliore.
Le Contrat territorial 2007-2013, que le CEPB et le CDPB élaborent avec l’Etat, la Région et le Département, place la mobilité comme un axe important, et finance une Enquête Ménages et Déplacements (menée en 2010 par le SCOT). L’opération « (a)ménageons le Pays Basque », lancée en 2009 aboutit à plusieurs scenarii en 2013 dont un mettant la mobilité au cœur, et dont les propositions sont troublantes d’actualité (voir l’Annexe 1). L’Agglomération du BAB (ACBA) initie une réforme du système de transport urbain et répond à l’appel à projet du Grenelle de l’environnement pour mobiliser des fonds importants, dont l’aboutissement est l’actuel réseau Chronoplus avec des lignes de Bus à Haut Niveau de Service. Avant la création de la nouvelle Communauté d’agglomération, plusieurs évolutions voient également le jour : élargissement de l’A63, abandon des projets de LGV en Pays Basque et de 2x3 voies en Basse-Navarre, rénovation de la ligne Bayonne-Garazi (mais pas son électrification…), amélioration du réseau départemental inter-urbain, projet Transfermuga (porté par l’Euro-Région).
En parallèle, le Pays Basque a vu aussi émerger des solutions plus alternatives à l’initiative de communes, de maires, d’associations locales : navettes électrique au cœur des villes, développement du prêt de vélos, de parkings-relais aux entrées de villes ou au niveau des nœuds routiers (ex. Briscous/Hasparren), taxi collectif en Amikuze, micro offre dans les vallées des Aldudes, solutions numériques utilisées pour le co-voiturage…
En 2019 pourtant, le Pays Basque est un territoire encore plus saturé et le fossé s’est agrandi entre l’offre de transport, les politiques d’urbanisme, et la poursuite d’une forte croissance démographique dans un grand périmètre péri-urbain, saturant les entrées des villes côtières. SN
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
En lançant son PDU (plan de déplacement urbain), la Communauté d’agglomération Pays Basque répond à la volonté (exprimée en 2006) de construire une stratégie de mobilité durable à l’échelle de tout le territoire basque.
Une opportunité historique pour répondre et faire évoluer les besoins de la grande majorité de la population.
Tel est le principal message de cette contribution : la politique de l’offre ne suffit plus, il faut répondre aux besoins des habitants et faire évoluer leurs pratiques. C’est au niveau des usages, des comportements, des nouveaux modes de vie, que les autorités organisatrices de la mobilité (AOM), comme l’est la Communauté d’agglomération Pays Basque (mais aussi La Région…), doivent accroître leurs efforts pour trouver les offres les plus adaptées.
Avec l’emploi et le logement, la question du transport fait partie des 3 grandes préoccupations de la population. Un thème récurrent dans les différents temps d’échange que peut organiser le CDPB, et également fortement présent dans les réponses au questionnaire régional portant sur « les relations rural-urbain », que le CDPB a diffusé au Pays Basque. La mobilité y reste citée parmi les principales difficultés des habitants du Pays Basque, et comme l’un des facteurs empêchant le « bien vivre » au Pays Basque.
La mobilité représente un triple défi de société, au Pays Basque comme ailleurs. Au Pays Basque, on peut même considérer qu’elle est une question de « survie territoriale » tant elle devient un frein à son développement social et économique, et d’urgence climatique !
Un défi d’inclusion sociale
Sans mobilité, pas d’accès au travail, à la formation, à l’alimentation… ! Avec l’accès au logement, l’accès à la mobilité est l’un des facteurs clés dans la précarisation de certaines populations (ou au contraire leur autonomie et leur stabilisation).
Or, au Pays Basque, ce droit à la mobilité auquel chacun devrait pouvoir prétendre se confronte à des inégalités diverses : inégalités de revenus, inégalités géographiques (où on vit, où on travaille), d’offres de mobilité et d’infrastructures…
L’un des objectifs majeurs d’une politique des mobilités est ainsi de permettre l’accès de chacun à la mobilité. Chaque habitant du Pays Basque doit être en mesure de circuler au sein du territoire, en partir et y revenir. Chaque visiteur extérieur au Pays Basque doit aussi être en mesure d’y venir, d’y circuler et d’en repartir…
Au-delà, il s’agit aussi de permettre l’accès à un choix de mobilité, évitant aux usagers la contrainte et la dépendance à un seul mode de transport, un seul trajet, une seule manière de construire ses déplacements quotidiens.
Un défi écologique, énergétique et de santé publique
L’actualité le remet quotidiennement en lumière : nos sociétés sont à un tournant décisif et doivent assumer une responsabilité vis-à-vis d’un dérèglement climatique global. Sans changement, la planète est en danger ! C’est donc une remise en question profonde de notre mode de vie et du fonctionnement de nos territoires qu’il s’agit d’engager, et c’est le sens de la transition écologique et énergétique du territoire.
La mobilité doit y prendre une large part, dans la mesure où le transport routier (de personnes et de marchandises) est très dépendant des énergies fossiles, qu’il émet la part la plus importante des gaz à effet de serre, et qu’il a un impact significatif sur la qualité de l’air que nous respirons. De nouvelles pratiques de mobilité émergent : elles doivent s’étendre et se généraliser, passer un cap significatif si nous souhaitons nous adapter au SN
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
mieux au changement climatique et le limiter, plutôt que de l’accélérer et le subir de plein fouet.
Un défi d’aménagement du territoire adapté aux spécificités : un cœur d’agglomération urbaine qui n’est pas central (mais au nord-est du territoire et sur la côte), un territoire péri-urbain et rural très vaste, un espace vallonné du fait de la proximité pyrénéenne, un littoral où se concentrent des flux de transit très importants et une attractivité touristique majeure (+10% de population en moyenne), une croissance démographique parmi les plus importantes de France, une métropole transfrontalière à l’œuvre, une imbrication avec le département des Landes (bassin d’emploi commun entre BAB et Seignanx)…
Ces spécificités territoriales nécessitent de faire du Pays Basque un territoire d’expérimentation de toutes les mobilités possibles.
Le retard pris dans les usages invite à une véritable « révolution culturelle ».
Le Conseil de développement du Pays Basque esquisse dans cette première contribution les grandes lignes d’une stratégie globale de la mobilité en privilégiant notamment :
- une nouvelle hiérarchisation des mobilités (le vélo et le transport en commun avant la voiture)
- l’intermodalité dans toutes les solutions de mobilité
- l’incitation à de nouvelles pratiques en osant contraindre lorsqu’il le faut - de nouveaux modes de gestion partagée (public/privé, collectivité/citoyens…) - un travail de fond sur le changement de culture de mobilité
Le Conseil de développement invite la Communauté d’Agglomération à être le chef de file de cette stratégie de mobilité durable :
- sur ses propres domaines de compétences (transport en commun…) - sur celles des communes de l’EPCI (place du vélo dans la voirie…) - dans des partenariats forts avec les autres collectivités et opérateurs compétents, présents dans les Pyrénées-Atlantiques, les Landes et le Gipuzkoa
- en s’appuyant sur les initiatives locales et citoyennes, comme autant d’expérimentations et d’innovations pouvant être essaimées (am)
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
Ipar Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
2ORE À CONCRETISER
UE)
TABLE DES MATIERES
CONTEXTE & ENJEUX.......................................................................................................... 7
UNE URBANISATION NON MAITRISEE .................................................................................. 8
DES TENDANCES NEGATIVES QUI SE CONFIRMENT ............................................................. 8
UN INVESTISSEMENT LIMITE SUR LES OFFRES ALTERNATIVES A LA VOITURE ............................. 9
LE PASSAGE A L’ECHELLE PAYS BASQUE ENCORE A CONCRETISER ..................................... 9
MAIS DES AVANCEES POSITIVES QUI PLAIDENT POUR UNE MONTEE EN PUISSANCE ! .......... 10
DES SPECIFICITES QUI PERDURENT ET A INTEGRER AU PROJET DE MOBILITE ....................... 10
PROPOSITIONS D’ORIENTATIONS STRATEGIQUES ................................................................ 11
1ERE ORIENTATION : ........................................................................................................ 11
CREER LES CONDITIONS D’UN CHANGEMENT DE COMPORTEMENT ET DE CULTURE DE LA MOBILITE ......................................................................................................................... 11
1.1. MIEUX CONNAITRE ET OBSERVER LES PRATIQUES DE MOBILITE ...................................... 11
1.2. INCITER AU CHANGEMENT PAR L’EXEMPLE .................................................................. 11
1.3. ACCOMPAGNER LES ACTEURS ECONOMIQUES ET SOCIAUX DU TERRITOIRE................. 12
1.4. AIDER AU DEVELOPPEMENT DE TOUTES LES ALTERNATIVES LOCALES ET CITOYENNES ..... 12
1.5. DEVELOPPER UN PROGRAMME DE SENSIBILISATION AUX MODES ACTIFS AUPRES DU
GRAND PUBLIC ................................................................................................................. 12
2EME ORIENTATION : ....................................................................................................... 13
DENSIFIER L’OFFRE DE TRANSPORT EN COMMUN ET LUTTER CONTRE UN TERRITOIRE A DEUX VITESSES .......................................................................................................................... 13
2.1. DEVELOPPER UNE OFFRE DE BUS PLUS DENSE, COHERENTE ET EFFICACE ..................... 13
2.2. CONSTRUIRE LE FUTUR « IPAR - TOPO » (LE « RER » DU PAYS BASQUE) ........................... 14
2.3. ETENDRE LES OFFRES DE TRANSPORT A LA DEMANDE .................................................. 14
2.4. FACILITER L’ACCESSIBILITE DE TOUS LES PUBLICS AUX OFFRES DE MOBILITE ................... 15
2.5. FAVORISER LE DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUE DU TERRITOIRE .................................... 15 (am)
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
Ipar Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
ET DE L'AUTOPARTAGE
MOBILITE DE DEMAIN
3EME ORIENTATION : ....................................................................................................... 16
HIERARCHISER LES MODES DE TRANSPORT EN FAVEUR DES MOBILITES DOUCES .................. 16
3.1. ACTUALISER ET METTRE EN ŒUVRE LE PLAN VELO SUR LE BAB ET SUR LES PRINCIPALES
VILLES /CENTRE-BOURGS DU PAYS BASQUE ......................................................................... 16
3.2. ACCOMPAGNER LES COMMUNES VERS LE DEVELOPPEMENT DES MODES DOUX DANS
TOUS LES CENTRES BOURGS .............................................................................................. 17
4EME ORIENTATION : ....................................................................................................... 18
ORGANISER L’INTERMODALITE ET AMENAGER LE TERRITOIRE POUR « SE DEPLACER MOINS ET SE DEPLACER MIEUX »...................................................................................................... 18
4.1. AMENAGER DES POLES D’ECHANGE ET MIEUX Y INFORMER L’USAGER ......................... 18
4.2. MIEUX ARTICULER LES OFFRES DE TRANSPORT ............................................................. 18
4.3. DEVELOPPER LES PRATIQUES QUI PERMETTENT DE REDUIRE CERTAINS DEPLACEMENTS .. 18
4.4. (A)MENAGER DURABLEMENT LE TERRITOIRE ................................................................. 19
5EME ORIENTATION : ....................................................................................................... 20
FACILITER L’AUTO-PARTAGE ET LIMITER L’USAGE INDIVIDUEL DE LA VOITURE THERMIQUE...... 20
5.1. FACILITER LES « VOITURES FACTEUR 4 » ....................................................................... 20
5.2. DEVELOPPER UNE POLITIQUE DU COVOITURAGE ET DE L’AUTOPARTAGE ....................... 20
5.3. ORGANISER LA TRANSITION DES VEHICULES THERMIQUES VERS LES VEHICULES
ELECTRIQUES..................................................................................................................... 21
5.4. DEVELOPPER LE « PAG’AUTO » (« PEAGE URBAIN » BASQUE) ......................................... 21
6EME ORIENTATION : ....................................................................................................... 22
FAIRE DES VALLEES LES AXES D’EXPERIMENTATIONS DE LA MOBILITE DE DEMAIN ................. 22
ANNEXES ......................................................................................................................... 23 TS
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
Ipar Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.7
CONTEXTE & ENJEUX
PREAMBULE
Après un important renouvellement, le CDPB porte officiellement la mission de « Conseil de développement de l’agglomération » (délibération du 21/07/2018 de la CAPB). Conformément à la loi NOTRe, le Conseil de développement est consulté sur l’élaboration du projet de territoire et sur les documents de prospective et de planification, dont fait partie le Plan de Déplacements Urbains (PDU).
Le 23 juillet 2018, le CDPB a adopté une Contribution en amont du Projet Communautaire de la CAPB1. Ce projet de territoire intègre déjà des propositions sur la question de la mobilité.
Une Commission mobilités a ensuite été mise en place le 26 novembre 2018 (voir sa composition en Annexe 2) pour s’inscrire dans une démarche de contribution en continu aux travaux de la Communauté d’agglomération.
CETTE CONTRIBUTION EST AINSI ISSUE DE DIFFERENTS TEMPS DE TRAVAIL : - Une première réunion de la Commission Mobilités du CDPB, le 26.11.18, en présence des responsables du syndicat des Mobilités ;
- Une participation active des membres du CDPB aux ateliers proposés en décembre et janvier par le Syndicat des mobilités, dans le cadre du partage de son diagnostic - Une deuxième réunion de la Commission, le 06.02.19, en présence de professionnels de la mobilité (transporteur, consultant mobilité…) ;
- La participation et co-animation d’un atelier spécifique « mobilité durable » lors du premier Forum Climat, organisé dans le cadre de la concertation autour du Plan Climat Air Energie Territorial de la CAPB
- Une troisième réunion de la Commission le 11.04.19, qui a posé les bases de la première Contribution du CDPB au PDU
- Un appel à contributions de la part des différentes Commissions de travail du CDPB (Mobilités, mais aussi Habitat-urbanisme, Transition Ecologique et Energétique, Rural- Urbain, Egalité Femmes-Hommes) et de son Conseil de Direction.
Cette première Contribution sera complétée par d’autres travaux, dans les mois à venir, qui permettront au CDPB de détailler les premières orientations présentées ici, et d’identifier les actions qu’il souhaitera voir intégrées par la CAPB au Programme d’actions du PDU.
1 « Quel Pays Basque demain, avec la Communauté d’Agglomération Pays Basque ? » (ici) (am)
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
Ipar Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.8
DIAGNOSTIC & ENJEUX : UN DEVOIR D’INVENTAIRE
La Commission Mobilités du CDPB s’est pliée à un exercice comparatif entre 2019 et 2006, en s’appuyant sur les travaux de Pays Basque 2020, tant en terme d’état des lieux que d’orientations et de réalisations : quelles sont les évolutions, les tendances… ? Qu’est-ce qui a été mis en place et qu’est-ce qui reste à réaliser ? Qu’est-ce qui reste d’actualité ou est à reconsidérer... ?
Ces quelques chiffres sont déjà très éclairants :
CHIFFRES CLES 2006* CHIFFRES CLES 2019**
79% des déplacements faits en voiture
4% transport en commun
1% en vélo
*Enquête-ménage 1999
76.5% (82% des trajets domicile-travail)
6% transport en commun
Moins de 2% en vélo
**Enquête-ménage 2010 actualisés
Une urbanisation non maîtrisée
- L’étalement urbain s’est poursuivi, et l’aménagement du territoire n’a pas fait l’objet d’une concertation à l’échelle du territoire malgré l’émergence des premiers SCOT autour des agglomérations littorales
- L’explosion de la construction de logements s’est faite sans réflexion urbaine : pas d’intégration d’offres de mobilité alternatives à la voiture, pas de traitement de qualité de l’espace public et de la mobilité douce, de la place du piéton… - Les ¾ de la production de logement ne répondent pas à la réalité des revenus et des besoins de la population locale (cf. Contribution PLH2), et la spéculation foncière et immobilière a continué à s’accroître en Pays Basque, malgré la crise économique de 2008. Cela a poussé de plus en plus de foyers hors du cœur de l’agglomération… accentuant dans le même temps leur dépendance à la voiture - L’offre de surfaces commerciales a également explosé (alors que le Pays Basque était déjà en 2005 en suréquipement commercial) avec des projets aussi impactants qu’Ametzondo, la rénovation du Carrefour BAB (en cœur d’agglomération), l’augmentation de surfaces le long des voies principales (routes départementales, RN10, route du BAB…)
Des tendances négatives qui se confirment
- L’explosion des flux de mobilité constatée entre 1990 et 2005 s’est poursuivie ; l’usage individuel de la voiture, lui, s’est maintenu, quand l’usage collectif de bus (vers les entreprises, les établissements scolaires) ne s’est que peu développé - En matière de mobilité des jeunes, l’agglomération bayonnaise est devenue le paradis du scooter…
- La saturation urbaine (en saison estivale comme hors saison) est devenue un vrai problème, avec une amplitude horaire qui croit d’année en année - Malgré la fin de la promotion du diesel et le développement des motorisations hybrides, les centres-villes (et les campagnes aussi !) connaissent une affluence croissante de grosses motorisations (SUV, 4X4, Jeep…)
2 A retrouver en cliquant ici TS
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.9
- En 2005/2006, le Pays Basque (et notamment l’agglomération Bayonnaise) faisait partie des agglomérations les plus en retard au plan national, en termes d’offre de TC et de taux de fréquentation de ces TC. En 2019, notre agglomération reste titulaire de ce triste record.
A titre de comparaison, 2% des trajets quotidiens sont intermodaux au Pays Basque, contre 10% en moyenne dans les grandes agglomérations françaises et 5% dans les villes moyennes.
Un investissement limité sur les offres alternatives à la voiture
- Le plan vélo de l’ACBA, élaboré en 2014, est resté sur les étagères : la place du vélo reste une véritable problématique en ville et dans les centre-bourgs, non pris en compte dans les tous derniers aménagements de Chronoplus. Le réseau cyclable reste morcelé, et met le vélo en concurrence directe avec les piétons et/ou en insécurité avec la voiture
- L’état des infrastructures ferroviaires s’est dégradé entre Bayonne et Pau ; la rénovation de la ligne Bayonne-Garazi s’est limitée aux rails et l’offre y demeure très limitée
- Le fret de marchandises (maritime et ferroviaire) se tasse… même si de nouvelles solutions sont apparues sur la logistique urbaine
Le passage à l’échelle Pays Basque encore à concrétiser
- En matière d’infrastructures et de stationnements, les choix politiques et stratégies communales diffèrent, freinant la mise en place de réseaux cohérents à l’échelle du bassin de vie : discontinuité des voies cyclables, aménagement qui ne respecte pas toujours la réglementation ; pas de restriction de l’usage de l’automobile (par le partage de la voirie avec d’autres modes) ou de son stationnement (nombre de places important, tarifs de stationnement différent selon les communes…) - En matière d’observation et de connaissance des mobilités, l’échelle « Pays Basque » semble encore poser problème. Qui assure la fonction d’observatoire des mobilités, et le suivi des indicateurs (accidentologie, impacts environnementaux et sanitaires, qualité de l’air, reports modaux, temps de trajet…), à l’échelle du Pays Basque ?
- Des acteurs (élus, techniciens, habitants) insuffisamment informés pour guider la décision, et un projet de mobilité qui a, jusqu’à aujourd’hui, peu fait l’objet de réelle concertation avec les habitants et usagers (malgré les préconisations de Pays Basque 2020 puis d’(a)ménageons le Pays Basque)
- Une offre de mobilité transfrontalière qui n’a que très peu évolué (en dehors des sociétés privées de bus), avec une connexion Bayonne-Donostia supérieur à 1h15, l’arrivée à nouveau des trains espagnols (Renfe) en gare d’Hendaye mais sur des offres limitées… Des perspectives dessinées par l’Eurorégion Aquitaine/Euskadi/Navrre dans le cadre du programme Transfermuga, devenue plateforme d’information3 qui restent à concrétiser…
3 http://www.transfermuga.eu SN
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.10
Mais des avancées positives qui plaident pour une montée en puissance ! Parmi les propositions formulées en 2006, certaines ont été concrétisées au moins partiellement :
- Développement du réseau Chronoplus et réalisation deux grandes lignes de bus à haut niveau de service (BHNS) ou Tram’Bus, mises en service en 2019/2020 - Installation du Syndicat des mobilités à l’échelle de l’ensemble du Pays Basque, qui pilote le premier PDU à émerger à cette échelle
- Annonce de la mise en place d’une « marque » unique (Txik Txak) rassemblant les différentes offres de transport en commun sur le territoire, en promettant un développement de l’offre, une incitation à l’intermodalité, une billettique unique et une harmonisation des services…
L’évolution institutionnelle offre la perspective de franchir un cap, qu’il s’agit maintenant de confirmer et amplifier… !
Des spécificités qui perdurent et à intégrer au projet de mobilité - Le Pays Basque reste un maillon stratégique sur l’arc Atlantique, donc un enjeu de mobilité inter-régional et européen. Il doit se préparer en particulier à une intensification des flux de marchandises à l’avenir lié aux stratégies maritimes de l’Asie vers l’Europe et le développement du Port de Sines au Portugal (porte d’entrée de la péninsule ibérique et du marché européen)…
- Le Pays Basque s’affirme comme une destination touristique nationale et internationale… attirant des visiteurs qui doivent également pouvoir développer une mobilité durable lorsqu’ils parcourent le Pays Basque. Il s’agit de proposer des offres de mobilité et des services adaptés à ces usages.
Le Pays Basque Nord, enfin, est étroitement lié à ses voisins, au Sud comme au Nord et à l’Est… Il doit être pensé comme un territoire connecté à ces voisins, voire comme l’un des territoires d’un bassin plus vaste qui englobe notamment une agglomération côtière transfrontalière étendue jusqu’au sud des Landes.
Si elles n’entrent pas en jeu dans les actions qui figureront à terme dans le PDU, et sur lesquelles le Syndicat des mobilités et les communes du territoire auront directement prise, les mobilités transfrontalières, départementales et interdépartementales (64-40) font partie du projet de mobilité au Pays Basque. Le PDU est l’occasion, à minima, d’en définir les attentes. TS
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
Ipar Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.11
PROPOSITIONS D’ORIENTATIONS STRATEGIQUES
1ère orientation :
Créer les conditions d’un changement de
comportement et de culture de la mobilité
De nombreuses expériences le montrent : il ne suffit pas de proposer une offre innovante pour que le public s’en saisisse et s’y appuie pour faire évoluer ses pratiques. Il s’agit avant tout de faire émerger une prise de conscience et un changement culturel. Il est urgent de prendre conscience que la « facilité de mobilité » induite par le recours systématique à la voiture est aujourd’hui une source de nuisance au quotidien pour les habitants, et qu’elle nuit aussi à la qualité du cadre de vie, principal atout du Pays Basque.
Et en Pays Basque le retard est si important en la matière qu’il s’agit du défi à la fois le plus important et le plus difficile à relever. Quelques illustrations de comportements excessifs en ville comme en milieu rural : des parkings de lycées essentiellement remplis de scooters, des abords d’écoles transformés « school-drive », des frontons de villages transformés en parking…
1.1. Mieux connaître et observer les pratiques de mobilité
Se rendre compte de ses propres pratiques et le premier levier du changement : un observatoire des mobilités à l’échelle du Pays Basque semble incontournable, pour prendre les meilleures décisions, mais aussi pour assurer le suivi de ce PDU et son actualisation tout au long de sa mise en œuvre. Une telle observation gagnerait à rompre avec les traditionnelles « enquêtes ménages déplacements », ponctuelles, coûteuses et trop peu fréquentes…
Faire pour et avec l’usager, qui devient producteur de données : données mobiles, et données qualitatives…
Intégrer les temporalités dans l’observation (cf « bureau des temps » de Rennes ou Lille) :
o organisation quotidienne, hebdomadaire, saisonnière des déplacements sur les territoires du Pays Basque ;
o organisation des déplacements des ménages pour associer travail, école, courses, loisirs, famille…
Rendre l’information utile en temps réel
1.2. Inciter au changement par l’exemple
Les collectivités publiques par leurs pratiques exemplaires ont un effet d’entraînement majeur. A contrario, les incohérences de l’action publique invite l’usager à se cacher derrière celles-ci pour justifier ses propres incohérences. Pour autant, il apparaît bien souvent que la société est bien plus prête que ce que peuvent en dire les décideurs, et que ce sont souvent les élus et la décision publique qui emboîtent le pas d’une société SN
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.12
civile qui a déjà intégré les mutations et les a acceptées. Le maintien des services publics sur les territoires est aussi une manière concrète d’éviter des déplacements inutiles... Développer la formation des élus et de leurs équipes aux nouvelles mobilités et à la ville de demain
Inviter la CAPB et les communes du Pays Basque à développer de nouvelles pratiques :
o Télétravail, pratiques numériques pour éviter des déplacements o Outils d’organisation de covoiturage systématique pour tous les événements o Modes doux ou véhicules électriques à disposition des agents… Se doter de moyens pour diffuser toutes les bonnes pratiques et leur essaimage Maintenir les services publics et administrations dans les pôles territoriaux et mairies (Pôle Emploi, CAF, CPAM, etc.) en y renforçant le nombre de permanences
1.3. Accompagner les acteurs économiques et sociaux du territoire
Certains acteurs sont déjà engagés dans l’évolution de leur mobilité (certains établissements scolaires, sanitaires, des entreprises…). Il s’agirait de généraliser ces démarches :
En accompagnant les acteurs déjà volontaires dans l’élaboration de leurs Plans de Mobilité (diagnostics à leur échelle, propositions d’actions, évaluation) En proposant des leviers incitant les autres à s’y engager
1.4. Aider au développement de toutes les alternatives locales et citoyennes
La CAPB aurait un rôle à jouer dans l’accompagnement des initiatives locales allant dans le sens du développement de nouvelles mobilités plus durables… qui ne l’ont pas attendue pour se lancer !
Conforter et aider au développement des initiatives locales portées par le réseau associatif (promotion du vélo, covoiturage dans les Aldudes par Aiba, par exemple…)
Aide au développement de projets innovants : voir l’arrêt de la start-up Badjoto, application locale de covoiturage pour les trajets courts et notamment domicile- travail, dont l’activité n’a pas pu être pérennisée
S’appuyer sur des outils déjà existants et les implanter au Pays Basque : expérimentation de Rézopouce au sud des Landes, promotion des plateformes de covoiturage (Mobicoop, ou Téacoté pour les établissements scolaires…).
1.5. Développer un programme de sensibilisation aux modes actifs auprès du grand public
Déjà identifié en 2006, la sensibilisation du public et la promotion des modes de transport alternatifs à la voiture est un travail de fond qui doit se poursuivre en permanence. Dès l’enfance : interventions dans les écoles, ramassages scolaires en pédibus engageant aussi les parents, apprentissage du vélo…
En adoptant le bon discours : mettre en avant les gains apportés par un changement de mobilité (financiers, santé, temps de trajet…)
Par la formation des futurs automobilistes au respect des autres modes de transport, qui partageront avec eux l’espace public, et la sensibilisation des conducteurs actuels aux règles du code de la route qui concernent les cyclistes TS
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.13
2ème orientation :
Densifier l’offre de transport en commun et lutter
contre un territoire à deux vitesses
Le développement de nouvelles offres de transport et de grands couloirs de mobilité a tendance à avoir un effet excluant : la création de nouvelles infrastructures s’accompagne souvent d’une montée des prix de l’immobilier à leur abord (phénomène bien étudié à Bordeaux, autour des lignes de tramway) et d’un report de populations modestes vers des zones moins desservies en TC. Ainsi, les exclus de la mobilité sont souvent les ménages les plus modestes, qui accumulent alors les difficultés.
Il s’agit de sortir d’une logique de fluidification uniquement sur les grands axes structurants et de penser enfin au maillage de l’ensemble du territoire, notamment les territoires ruraux, en mettant l’accent sur les lignes secondaires des réseaux. Bref, prioriser la rénovation et l’optimisation des infrastructures actuelles pour ne pas reproduire le « syndrome TGV » ! La focalisation sur le TGV et ses grandes lignes est en France l’une des raisons au désinvestissement sur les lignes secondaires avec des conséquences que nous connaissons aujourd’hui (état des infrastructures comme entre Bayonne et Pau, baisse de l’offre, allongement des temps de parcours…). Ce risque est bien évident à éviter sur le réseau de transport en commun du territoire de l’agglomération.
Enfin autre défi, celui de la mobilité transfrontalière dont les études montrent l’asymétrie des offres et des pratiques, au point de constituer une « galère » pour l’usager du transport en commun4. Les offres en Euskadi constituent aussi des exemples à suivre dans l’offre à envisager en Iparralde !5
2.1. Développer une offre de bus plus dense, cohérente et efficace
La pratique du réseau actuel de l’offre de Chronoplus montre un décalage croissant entre l’effort porté sur les grands axes structurants (actuelles lignes A1, A2, B….) et des lignes secondaires mettant certains quartiers du BAB à des distances-temps très importantes des centralités (jusqu’à 1h de transport !). De même l’interopérabilité semble peu prise en compte au sein du réseau de bus : passer d’un bus à l’autre sans trop d’attente. Enfin, des retards sont manifestes en termes d’accès rapide entre, par exemple, le centre de Biarritz et sa gare et l’aéroport, ce qui constitue une incohérence majeure avec la politique de marketing valorisant une station internationale !
L’exemple des réseaux en Euskadi invite à penser différemment l’inter-urbain : sans lignes directes et express (de centre à centre, sans marquer d’arrêt sur son trajet), il y a peu de chances de résoudre le défi de la mobilité entre le littoral et son arrière-pays… En bouclant cette Contribution, le CDPB est interpellé par certains de ses membres faisant état d’aménagements contestables liés au Tram’bus, tant en termes d’absence d’intégration de pistes cyclables que d’arrêt de la logique « bus à haut niveau de service » (notamment à l’entrée et à la traversée de Biarritz).
4 1h40 à 2h10 entre Bayonne et Donosti (59km)
5 1h (bus express) entre Donosti et Bilbao (100km) ; 1h à 1h15 entre Bayonne et Garazi (58km)… SN
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.14
Aller au bout de la logique « Tram’bus » sur les commune de Biarritz et Anglet : accès à l’aéroport de Parme, à la gare de Biarritz, entrée du BHNS au cœur de Biarritz !
Adapter les aménagements du réseau pour intégrer systématiquement le vélo sur des voies dédiées ou partagées avec le bus
Profiter du développement du Tram’Bus pour redessiner le réseau de lignes secondaires de l’agglomération :
o une nouvelle hiérarchie du réseau et de l’interopérabilité entre lignes du réseau o des plages horaires plus étendues, un service plus important aux heures de pointe
Développer des lignes inter-urbaines « express » (avec des voies réservées aux entrées des agglomérations sur les derniers kilomètres) :
o notamment sur la « couronne » de l’agglomération BAB
o et entre les villes/bourgs centres de l’intérieur
Permettre l’accès aux axes autoroutiers à des lignes de bus express sur le territoire et avec les territoires voisins : express Saint-Palais-Bayonne, Bayonne-Hendaye- Donosti…
2.2. Construire le futur « IPAR - TOPO » (le « RER » du Pays Basque)
L’étoile ferroviaire autour de Bayonne permet d’envisager de nouvelles offres sur les 4 lignes ferroviaires (vers Dax, vers Pau, vers Garazi, vers Hendaye) et sur la première couronne (les 20/25 premiers kilomètres) un fort cadencement de type « RER », comme le font d’autres agglomérations en Europe, et à l’image du « TOPO » qui circule de la gare d’Hendaye jusqu’à Donostia/San Sebastian ou des autres lignes régionales du réseau d’EuskoTren. Une nouvelle offre de TER à développer avec la Région sur ces les 4 lignes ferroviaires
Une offre spécifique pour la première couronne (Bayonne-Hendaye / Cambo / Urt / Saint-Vincent de Tyrosse) avec des cadencements supérieurs et des pôles d’intermodalité / parkings…
Une continuité inter-topo entre Iparralde (CAPB) et Hegoalde (Topo d’EuskoTren) Des prolongements à étudier en cœur d’agglomération (cf. ligne du souffre)
2.3. Etendre les offres de transport à la demande
Ni l’offre de bus ni celle du train ne pourront répondre aux besoins de toute une partie de la population excentrée des villes et bourgs-centres, que ce soit à l’intérieur du Pays Basque comme en proximité de la côte (voir la situation de nombreux quartiers qui se sont étalés). C’est donc tout un réseau de transport à la demande qu’il faut envisager pour : répondre à des mobilités de rabattement sur le transport en commun répondre à des mobilités plus express pour regagner une centralité…. SN
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.15
2.4. Faciliter l’accessibilité de tous les publics aux offres de mobilité
Cela n’inclut pas que la possibilité d’accéder physiquement à son bus ou à son train… ! De nombreux publics peuvent être empêchés dans leur accès à la mobilité, par incapacité à trouver l’information, ou manque de ressources financières.
Rendre toutes les offres de transport accessibles aux personnes à mobilité réduite et aux personnes handicapées
Proposer une tarification abordable, et des modes de paiement qui s’adaptent aux capacités de chacun
Rendre lisible les informations auprès des voyageurs : billettique unique, information numérique et non numérique, formation des agents…
Interconnecter l’information avec les réseaux de transports d’Euskadi, des Landes…
2.5. Favoriser le développement économique du territoire
La mobilité des marchandises est une question cruciale pour les entreprises (et les consommateurs) et pour la pérennité du tissu économique local, tant en terme d’approvisionnement, de circulation que d’exportation. Outre les voies routières classiques, la position stratégique de l’agglomération Bayonnaise dans les flux inter-régionaux et transfrontaliers/européens invite à :
Conforter les grands équipements (Port, CEF de Mouguerre…) et y permettre ou développer le report modal de marchandises, de la route vers le fer ou le fluvial ; Assurer une bonne liaison aérienne entre l’aéroport local et les "hubs aériens" internationaux (Paris CDG, Madrid et Barcelone), de manière à garder et attirer des entreprises à dimension internationale
Encourager le développement de TPE/PME dans le secteur de la logistique à haute valeur ajoutée (conditionnements, packaging de plusieurs produits…) et valorisant les productions locales (cf. agroalimentaire en particulier)
Encourager toutes les solutions nouvelles dans la logistique urbaine réduisant pollutions et GES (dernier kilomètre sous des formes alternatives / cf. ex Erlea) SN
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.16
3ème orientation :
Hiérarchiser les modes de transport en faveur des
mobilités douces
50% des trajets quotidiens sont de courtes distances (moins de 3km), et 1/3 de moins d’1 km ! Des distances facilement réalisables à pied, à vélo, en trottinette… pour peu que ces modes de déplacement aient leur place dans l’espace urbain et sur les routes. Levier important de la Transition écologique et énergétique, la mobilité doit pouvoir se désintoxiquer de la voiture thermique et individuelle au Pays Basque. Cela suppose notamment de pouvoir réaliser une bonne partie de nos déplacements quotidiens autrement qu’en voiture et même qu’en bus !
3.1. Actualiser et mettre en œuvre le plan vélo sur le BAB et sur les principales villes /centre-bourgs du Pays Basque
A l’occasion de son propre PDU, l’ex Agglomération Côte Basque Adour avait travaillé à un schéma vélo ambitieux, qui pourtant n’a jamais été mis en œuvre et concrétisé. Ces dernières années, les avancées se sont faits sur une approche classique du « vélo-loisirs » (voies vertes, vélodyssée…) alors que toutes les agglomérations d’Europe ont fait du vélo le moyen de transport du quotidien. Ce nouveau PDU est l’occasion de : Inscrire la place du vélo dans toutes les centralités du territoire (au cœur de Bayonne, comme d’Hasparren, Saint-Palais, Mauléon…) et y accorder une place centrale dans la voirie (voies dédiées et sécurisées).
Développer des voies réservées, des zones à vitesse réduite… afin de sécuriser la pratique du vélo sur des espaces qui soient partagées ou non avec d’autres modes Développer des stationnements vélo plus nombreux et mieux aménagés, notamment
o aux abords des bâtiments publics
o aux abords des zones d’activité
o aux abords des nœuds d’intermodalité (gares ferroviaires et routières, parkings relais…)
Actualiser le Plan Vélo et lui donner une nouvelle ambition à l’échelle du Pays Basque :
o des réseaux locaux (quartiers, communes)…
o à l’armature vélo de l’ensemble du territoire : réseau express et « autoroutes vélo », entre centres bourgs et villes côtières, accompagnant le développement du vélo à assistance électrique
Etablir l’évaluation en continu de la mise en œuvre de ce Plan Vélo dans toutes ses dimensions : offres, pistes, pratiques, etc. SN
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.17
3.2. Accompagner les communes vers le développement des modes doux dans tous les centres bourgs
Parents pauvres de la mobilité douce, les communes de l’intérieur et des territoires ruraux de la Communauté Pays Basque devraient pouvoir profiter de ce projet de mobilité pour trouver des ressources leur permettant de rattraper leur retard.
Une ingénierie disponible pour définir leurs projets de mobilité douce (marche, vélo) :
o à l’échelle de leurs centres-bourgs
o et de leurs territoires communaux, en cohérence avec le réseau global d’Iparralde
Des manières de faire homogénéisées entre toutes les communes du Pays Basque : aménagement, signalétique, entretien des circulations vélo et piétons comme des stationnements… SN
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.18
4ème orientation :
Organiser l’intermodalité et aménager le territoire pour
« se déplacer moins et se déplacer mieux »
La volonté des usagers de limiter leurs déplacements en voiture, et la possibilité qu’ils auront d’utiliser d’autres modes de transport ne suffiront pas à opérer un basculement vers des mobilités plus vertueuses : il s’agit aussi de pouvoir éviter certains déplacements, et d’organiser son programme de déplacement quotidien en combinant efficacement les différents modes.
Il ne s’agit donc pas de « ne plus être mobile », ou d’être le moins mobile possible… mais de pouvoir éviter certains déplacements, notamment lorsqu’ils sont difficilement réalisables par des modes de transport alternatifs à la voiture individuelle. L’aménagement du territoire est une clé pour diminuer (en nombre et en distance) certains déplacements, et pour répondre au défi de l’intermodalité au Pays Basque
4.1. Aménager des pôles d’échange et mieux y informer l’usager
L’objectif est d’y rendre plus fluide le passage d’un mode de transport à l’autre (train/bus/vélo/trottinette/marche/covoiturage…)
Aux nœuds des grandes armatures du territoire : gares et échangeurs autoroutiers Aux entrées de l’agglomération bayonnaise : Ametzondo, Tarnos, Bassussarry… Aux extrémités du réseau de bus urbain, des parkings-relais aux capacités suffisantes
4.2. Mieux articuler les offres de transport
En mettant en place des solutions qui semblent simples :
o Coordonner les offres, et adapter les horaires de manière à pouvoir basculer d’une offre à l’autre ;
o Permettre l’embarquement des vélos, trottinettes… dans les transports en commun (bus et trains)
Mais qui supposent un dialogue entre les différents opérateurs et Autorités Organisatrices des Mobilités : le Syndicat des mobilités doit jouer un rôle de facilitateur de ces échanges avec la SNCF, la Région, etc.
4.3. Développer les pratiques qui permettent de réduire certains déplacements
Au-delà des Plans de mobilité inter-entreprises (qui nécessitent des masses critiques importantes d’au moins 2 à 3000 personnes), dans un tissu économique essentiellement de TPE/PME, la majorité des solutions résident dans l’évolution des pratiques professionnelles grâce à un accompagnement sur mesure pour :
Développer le Télétravail, coworking, voire télémédecine, qui évitent les trajets intérieur/côte… mais nécessitent une couverture numérique de l’ensemble du territoire (Très Haut Débit)
Créer des « plans de cohésion professionnels » : il s’agit de repenser les agendas professionnels de certaines catégories. Des exemples à suivre : équipes médicales TS
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.19
qui interviennent à l’intérieur (plutôt que chaque patient ne se déplace vers la côte…), et à reproduire pour d’autres services ?
4.4. (A)ménager durablement le territoire
Enjeu récurrent dans les productions du CDPB, l’aménagement plus durable du territoire représente la clé principale de sa transition. En matière de mobilité, un projet d’aménagement cohérent est aussi un des facteurs d’évolution vers des mobilités plus vertueuses. Les propositions ressorties d’(a)ménageons le Pays Basque en 2012 restent toujours d’actualité, tant en terme de nouvelles perspectives d’aménagement du territoire6 que de maillage de transport…
Pas d’offre de transport efficace sans gestion cohérente de l’espace : combiner habitat, services, développement économique… dans des opérations mixtes qui rapprochent ces différentes fonctions
Conditionner les opérations d’aménagement à des aménagements piétons, vélos, et à l’accès à une offre de transport en commun
Adapter les règles d’urbanisme qui contraignent les aménagements liés à la mobilité durable (blocages par l’ABF, les règlements communaux…)
6 Cf. page : « déménager le littoral », « aménager les vallées », « ménager la montagne »…. (voir ici) SN
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.20
5ème orientation :
Faciliter l’auto-partage et limiter l’usage individuel de
la voiture thermique
20 000 véhicules par jour entre Bayonne et Cambo, le triple sur les axes littoraux (RN10, BAB, A63…)… et combien de véhicules avec des personnes seules au volant ? Pour faire évoluer rapidement les choses, la politique de mobilité doit apporter à l’usage collectif de la voiture tous les avantages possibles. Mais de façon plus générale, la révolution culturelle porte sur le développement d’une économie de la fonctionnalité, où l’usage prend le pas sur la propriété : un mouvement que la Communauté d’agglomération peut accompagner de manière volontariste.
Une politique volontariste passe nécessairement par des mesures contraignantes. Mais leur acceptation sociale tient à la cohérence d’une politique publique qui propose réellement des alternatives crédibles. Sans quoi, la mobilité-sanction est une impasse et conduit à limiter la nécessaire mobilité des personnes et les échanges. Pour autant, certains comportements excessifs nécessitent des réponses à la mesure de leur impact le développement récent et massif de grosses motorisations en cœur de ville est un phénomène qu’il apparait nécessaire de contrecarrer rapidement…
5.1. Faciliter les « voitures facteur 4 »
Pourquoi un « facteur 4 » : venir à 4 en voiture c’est possible ! C’est 4 fois plus économique, c’est 4 fois plus d’échanges et de solidarité, et c’est 4 fois moins de voiture sur la route, 4 fois moins de pollution et de gaz à effet de serre !
Développer une politique globale favorable aux « voitures collectives » (4 personnes au minimum) : facilités de stationnement, tarifs plus bas sur l’autoroute, accès aux voies des Bus et Taxis…
5.2. Développer une politique du covoiturage et de l’autopartage
Si le covoiturage fait l’objet soit de l’inventivité des particuliers soit de celles des star’up (dont certaines deviennent des géants du CAC40…), le co-voiturage de proximité est à organiser avec la Communauté d’agglomération et les acteurs de la société civile car son modèle économique et son adaptation aux réalités locales supposent une expérimentation particulière. Pour encourager l’autopartage, la CAPB pourrait en faciliter la pratique dans les mesures qui suivent mais aussi montrer l’exemple en investissant dans une flotte de véhicules électriques louables par les habitants !
Des voies et places de stationnement réservées pour ces usages, notamment au niveau des grands parkings-relais
Des outils pour faciliter l’organisation de ces usages, en particulier o Des plateformes de covoiturage pour les événements grand public pilotés par les collectivités et leurs partenaires
o Une matérialisation sur les axes structurants du territoire : visualisation de voies réservées, ou d’arrêts d’auto-stop par exemple…
Développer les systèmes de véhicules en libre-service, en location, les expérimentations d’autopartage (dès l’échelle très locale du quartier) TS
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.21
5.3. Organiser la transition des véhicules thermiques vers les véhicules électriques
Outre les incitations nationales (fiscales et autres), le territoire pourrait oser l’expérimentation en se dotant d’un patrimoine de véhicules électriques et d’un réseau de bornes mis à disposition pour une politique d’auto-partage.
Des véhicules qui sont plus propres mais aussi plus robustes, et qui facilitent donc l’autopartage…
Mais dont le développement nécessite des investissements : installations de recharge de batteries notamment
5.4. Développer le « PAG’AUTO » (« péage urbain » basque)
Le législateur souhaite développer en France les péages urbains dans les agglomérations de plus de 100 000 habitants7, après les expériences menées dans d’autres métropoles européennes. Le Pays Basque pourrait emboîter le pas dès aujourd’hui, au regard de l’engorgement des ses villes du littoral.
Le modèle basque à inventer pourrait être celui d’une discrimination positive dans les politiques tarifaires (stationnement, autoroute, amendes…) en faveur des pratiques les plus vertueuses de l’automobile : co-voiturage, auto-partage, véhicules électriques…
En référence l’AUTO PAY à Londres, le « PAG’AUTO » (Pagatu, payer en basque !) pourrait aussi contraindre des usages incompatibles avec la transition écologique les grosses motorisations, SUV, 4X4, et autres Jeep, par des politiques tarifaires pénalisantes.
7 https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2018/10/18/le-gouvernement-donne-le-feu-vert-au-peage-
urbain_5371219_3244.html SN
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.22
6ème orientation :
Faire des vallées les axes d’expérimentations de la
mobilité de demain
Le développement actuel de la mobilité se fait notamment autour de la Nivelle (entre l’intérieur du territoire et les villes d’Hendaye, Urrugne, Saint-Jean-de-Luz, Bidart, Biarritz), autour de la Nive (entre Garazi et Bayonne, et plus densément entre Cambo et Bayonne), et ces dernières années le long de l’Adour (entre Bidache/Urt et Bayonne). Trois vallées qui traduisent l’étalement urbain accentué par l’inaccessibilité des prix de l’immobilier sur la zone littoral (cf. Contribution du CDPB au PLH). Comme l’ont proposé les prospectivistes sur « (a)ménageons le Pays Basque » (cf. Annexe 3), l’aménagement du territoire se joue sur ces axes, car le littoral est saturé, inaccessible et par nature limité et future zone à risque climatique. Le CDPB invite dès à présent à anticiper cette perspective dans le PDU :
Faire de l’axe Cambo-Bayonne un axe d’expérimentation et d’innovation de la mobilité : où pourraient être modélisées les solutions de demain, en termes d’offres nouvelles de transport, d’usage des routes… mais aussi d’articulation de ces services de mobilité avec le développement de nouvelles zones urbaines, économiques, de formation, etc. TS
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
Ipar Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.23
ANNEXES
ANNEXE 1 : RETOUR SUR « (A)MENAGEONS LE PAYS BASQUE »
ANNEXE 2 : COMPOSITION DE LA COMMISSION MOBILITES DU CDPB fa)
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
© Défi 2 : La mobilité durable
3- Le parti-pris d'aménagement
À Défi 2 : la mobilité durable
La situation actuelle
Le Pays basque se caractérise par une mobilité essentiellement automobile, tant sur l'espace rural que sur le littoral.
Cette forme de mobilité, très polluante, contribue depuis plusieurs décennies à renforcer la diffusion spatiale de l'habitat et des
fonctions urbaines, et à développer la spécialisation fonctionnelle (et sociale) des territoires.
Si elle semble constituer un outil de liberté, cette mobilité individuelle généralisée a donc des conséquences de plus en plus
inquiétantes sur l'environnement et la cohésion sociale.
Le sous développement de la mobilité non polluante et de la mobilité douce, malgré un fort potentiel (notamment sur le littoral),
reste aujourd'hui notable.
Les perspectives à 2035
Les perspectives énergétiques, en particulier celles des énergies fossiles, sont bien connues : l'on 5e dirige vers une période
de rareté de cette ressource, avec pour corrélation une très probable envolée des prix du pétrole.
Par ailleurs, la révolution numérique, déjà largement engagée, aura des conséquences considérables dans l'organisation des
mobilités de demain.
Le contexte de la mobilité à 2035 peut se résumer à travers les indicateurs suivants :
* Un baril de pétrole à 135$ (72S en 2010)
+ +50 à 80% d'échanges européens transitant par le Pays basque
* L'usage généralisé du numérique dans l'optimisation des systèmes de mobilité
+ La pratique devenue courante, par la population, des modes de transports partagés
«+ La baisse contrainte de la mobilité individuelle pour les ménages modestes
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.24
ANNEXE 1 : RETOUR SUR « (A)MENAGEONS LE PAYS BASQUE » TS
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
3- Le parti-pris d'aménagement
D Défi 2 : la mobilité durable
Les nécessaires réponses à apporter
Dans ce contexte, il est évident que les modes actuels d'organisation de la mobilité ne seront pas tenables à l'horizon 2035. Il
est nécessaire d'imaginer une autre manière de se déplacer, moins coûteuse pour l'environnement, et adaptée à des territoires
peu denses.
Par ailleurs, le scénario « Pays basque 2035 » s'appuie sur deux idées clés :
«une « métropole pays », ce qui signifie un espace de solidarité et d'échanges à l'échelle du pays basque,
+ une nouvelle relation entre urbanisme et transport, permettant de faire émerger une forme urbaine plus dense, et un nouveau
rapport à l'espace
Atteindre ces deux objectifs dans un contexte environnemental et social délicat nécessite une réponse particulièrement efficace
et performante.
Ainsi, nous proposons d'organiser la mobilité à partir de deux idées :
- une chaîne de mobilité physique et virtuelle permettant de couvrir l'ensemble du territoire basque par des transports aussi
économes que possible
+ Une conception intégrée de l'urbanisme et des transports, permettant de repenser les formes urbaines du territoire, et
d'assurer une massiication des flux permettant un report efficace sur les transports collectifs.
Les composantes de la mobilité durable
Cette organisation d'une mobilité durable se décline de la manière suivante :
+ La notion de « chaîne de transport » cohérente, permettant de répondre aux besoins de mobilité de la population, sur
l'ensemble du territoire, en limitant au maximum l'usage imposé de l'automobile
«ll ne s'agit pas d'opposer l'automobile aux autres modes de transport, mais d'optimiser l'usage de chacun et la
complémentarité de tous, dans un contexte de besoins en forte augmentation et de ressources plus limitées
+ Cet accès à la mobilité est la condition sine qua non d'un territoire solidaire, et de la métropole-pays
+ Les conditions de cette mobilité durable - une densification des espaces occupés (permettant de maximiser les flux), une
articulation optimale de tous les moyens de transport physiques et virtuels, une autorité organisatrice unique à l'échelle du Pays
basque.
Co-mobilité et potentiels d'échanges
La mobilité (son espace-temps) permet de réinventer notre rapport au territoire et à la vie collective. Passer
de l’idée de « droïît à la ville » à la notion de « droit à la mobilité ». L'homme s'intègre à travers le flux, à
travers sa capacité à se mouvoir librement. Le flux, la « mise en mouvement » des individus, constitue une
réponse aux phénomènes de ségrégation. l’idée de « mixité » telle qu'elle est préconisée comme réponse
sociale et spatiale renvoie à un idéal fixe, à une image de la ville telle qu'elle devrait être mais ne prend que
très rarement en compte la nécessité de privilégier les liens plutôt que les lieux.
La mobilité : une nouvelle offre
Metropolitrain Handiabus
Bordeaux
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.25 TS
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
© Défi 2 : la mobilité durable La mobilité, au service d’un nouveau territoire
TGV 250 KM/H réseau primaire " / mn
TN SRE mme L L 1 Lu
Metropolitrain 70 kM/H
Le Métropolitrain s’installe sur l'infrastructure ferroviaire L / °e j E - à
existante, Desserte de l'espace littoral et de la vallée de la 4 È = == L D, VE | 2er EL DECHEA] AS
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Tixikibus 30 À 70 KM/H
Tixiki = petit
Desserte fine-liaison entre les vallées (muscle) —
échappées dans le massif (en saison, à la demande)
Askat’auto 30 A 110KkM/H Bizikleta 15«M/H : D!
Askat = liberté Bizi = vélo FD ES système d'auto en libre service systeme de velo en libre service en liberté vor tente LA tête
Défi 2 : la mobilité durable La mobilité, au service d’un nouveau territoire
FF : La mobilité initie une nouvelle facon d'habiter. [Il faut inventer La mobilité : des nouveaux lieux a PTE Ve A ac fps) les lieux qui correspondent à cette ambition, inventer de nouveaux services : une véritable révolution urbaine s'opère, où le cœur n'est plus la mairie, l'église ou le temple, mais ce lieu qui vous positionne dans le monde : celui de l'échange et de la co-mobilité.
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L£ are Métropolitain sur l'infrastructure ferroviaire / existante, assure une desserte de l'espace littoral et de la
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.26 TS
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Défi 2 : la mobilité durable La mobilité, au service d’un nouveau territoire
Le numérique : une formidable opportunité à maîtriser
Le numérique, une formidable opportunité.
La contribution des outils numériques à l'organisation de la mobilité peut se situer à trois niveaux complémentaires -
* L'amélioration de l'efficacité des systèmes de mobilité (gestion des trafic, systèmes de transports collectifs « intelligents »)
+ La réduction du nombre de véhicules sur la route (auto-partage. co-voiturage)
* La réduction des déplacements physiques (e-substitution)
L'association TIC - mobilité trouve ainsi sa justification dans la prise en compte des trois dimension du développement
durable
- enjeux environnementaux : réduction des GES et des pollutions atmosphériques
- enjeux sociaux - réduction des temps, du stress ou des dangers liés aux transports (notamment des flux pendulaires en
développant le télétravail), mais aussi maintien des personnes (personnes âgées notamment)
- enjeux d'équité sociale et géographique, en rendant un certain nombre de services accessibles et proches depuis tous les
territoires, les TIC limitent la ségrégation territoriale
- enjeux économiques : réduction des coûts inhérents aux transports, pour l'usager (réduction de la précarité énergétique
notamment) comme pour le prestataires (gain d'efficacité des organisations)
La mobilité, au service d’un nouveau territoire
De multiples applications possibles dans le champ de la mobilité
D Défi 2 : la mobilité durable
Réunions virtuelles
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Plate-formes multimodales
EN TEMPS RÉEL
0848 A24 412
mobility.ch
Utilisation du GPS pour l’auto-partage Services dynamiques de co-voiturage
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.27 TS
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Défi 2 : la mobilité durable La mobilité, au service d’un nouveau territoire
Le numérique : une formidable opportunité à maîtriser
... mais un impact sur la mobilité qui n'est pas automatique
Les travaux récents de chercheurs tendent cependant à sérieusement nuancer cet effet automatiquement positif du numérique sur
la mobilité :
- G. Claise - Les TIC n'auront pas d'effet sur la demande globale en transport, tout au plus pourront-ls réduire les taux de
croissance.
- J Gomez : les TIC servent avant tout a étendre la sphère communicationelle, plus qu'a rationaliser les flux de transports
- Gottman : la croissance des flux électroniques accompagne mais ne se substitue pas à la croissance des flux matériels
Une question clé : la maîtrise de l'effet rebond
Les progrès permis par l'amélioration de l'efficacité des communications, s'ils ne
sont pas maîtrisés, se répercutent sur l'augmentation de la mobilité Îs | L'exemple du télétravail
-les impacts observés oscillent entre stabilisation et
Index 1985 = 100 réduction de moins de 2% du trafic 10? = 100
- les télétravailleurs vivent plus loin : ils augmentent les
distances parourues (Le télétravail peut donc favoriser
l'étalement urbain)
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grande flexibilité économique (baisse des couts liés au
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s'observe dans les secteurs où la pénurie de main
d'œuvre a été la plus grande
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© Défi 2 : la mobilité durable La mobilité, au service d’un nouveau territoire
L'outil numérique au cœur de la stratégie de mobilité
L'organisation d'une offre globale de mobilité sur le Pays basque ne peut s'envisager sans un usage pertinent et ciblé de l'outil
numérique. Donner de la cohérence à l'ensemble de l'offre, coordonner les différents modes de transport, optimiser l'usage de
chaque véhicule circulant sur le territoire. ces objectifs ne pourront être remplis qu'en utilisant l'outil numérique de manière
intelligente, c'est-à-dire en ayant la capacité de maîtriser ses effets induits indésirables (effet rebond).
Trois types de leviers à actionner
Réduire le nombre de véhicules sur la Réduire le nombre de déplacements
Améliorer l'efficacité des transports route physiques
- La bonne articulation des différents Pa s'agit là a 53e 4 LR A ee - Le levier de l'e-substitution se pose plus types de transports constitue un optimisation de lusage des Véhicules largement à travers la possibilité des TIC de
enjeu essentiel pour pernedre à 13 count sur (4: roue, Sin évier les proposer des services virtuels, évitant ainsi le chaîne de mobilité de fonctionner déplacements inutiles. Si l'efficacité de la recours à un déplacement physique (réunions
virtuelles, télé-travail, e administration,
télémédecine, e learning...
chaîne globale de transport permettra de
-À cet égard, les TIC peuvent renforcer la fréquentation des transports apporter des outils très efficaces - développement des systèmes collectifs , il s'agira aussi d'optimiser 1 | Momie @ de log l'utilisation de chaque véhicule individuel. Serra ME ri sep
intermodale, déploiement de - Transport à la demande : les TIC problèmes na mobilité, mais des leviers à systèmes de transport intelligents permettent d'améliorer la gestion des actionner de manière intelligente dans le pour améliorer cohérence, visibilité et véhicules et la mise-en relation de l'offre cadre d'une stratégie globale de territoire
performance de l'offre. et au final avec la demande (centrales de
améliorer la fréquentation. réservation).
- Co-voiturage et auto-partage - l'apport
des TIC est décisif pour faciliter la mise en
relation des personnes (GPS, GSM).
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.28 fa)
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
La mobilité, au service d’un nouveau territoire D Défi 2 : la mobilité durable
Deux conditions d'intégration performante du numérique à la politique de mobilité.
Dépasser la fragmentation des opérateurs de transports
Il apparaît que, souvent, les potentialités offertes par le numérique sont limitées par les conséquences d'une insuffisante
communication et coordination entre les autorités organisatrices de transport.
Cela apparaît notamment de manière flagrante dans l'organisation des transports collectifs. ou dans les initiatives de
développement de services de transport à la demande.
La question de l'effet rebond
L'effet rebond constitue un phénomène majeur en termes d'effets territoriaux induits par l'usage du numérique. Différentes études
ont montré que l'effet du numérique sur le nombre de déplacements physiques était nul, dans la mesure où les gains apportés par
l'amélioration de l'efficacité des systèmes de transports étaient entièrement « réinvestis » dans d'autres déplacements.
Autre type d'effet rebond, les conséquences sur l'occupation de l'espace. L'accès dématérialisé à un emploi ou à un service peut
inciter l'usager à habiter loin des emplois ou services physiques, et ainsi contribuer au phénomène d'étalement de l'habitat (c'est
un phénomène largement constaté dans le cadre du télétravail).
Dé
Deux réponses au cœur du scénario « Pays basque 2035 »
+
Une autorité unique de coordination de
l'offre de transport
Seule une telle autorité sera en capacité de
dépasser les fragmentations actuelles en termes
d'organisation des transports
Une forte articulation urbanisme- transport
Cette cohérence constitue la condition indispensable à
la maîtrise de l'effet rebond : l'amélioration des
conditions de mobilité doit être cohérente avec la
volonté de construire un territoire de courtes distances
La mobilité, au service d’un nouveau territoire 3- Le parti-pris d'aménagement
> Défi 2 : la mobilité durable - Déclinaison territoriale
Les réseaux de demain
EM spocenaturd protégé
—__T fuseau TGVcoté français
gare TGV
mu voies TGV
LS gère Métropolitrain
voies Meétropolitrain
[e]
22:32
LL 3
L2 station Handinbus
trajet Handiabus
ation Tiikobus
trajetTirikibus
échangeur
autoroute
vosenovigable
aéroport
escale bateau de crorsière
NU
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.29 US)
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Le parti d'aménagement
Exemple de densification en cohérence avec les nouveaux
Pole d'échanges gare Métropolitrain modes de déplacement
St Etienne de Baigorry
Développement d’un quartier d'échanges.
Fonctions mixtes Habitat et activités
3ha — 120lgts (40lgts/ha)
FA Habitat
si
\
Exemple de densification en cohérence avec les nouveaux
Pole d'échanges Station Handiabus modes de déplacement
Saint Palais
Développement d’un quartier d'échanges.
Fonctions mixtes Habitat, activités et
services
3ha — 120lgts (40lgts/ha)
Habitat /)
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.30 TN
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Le parti d'aménagement Basse Navarre
Exemple de densification en cohérence avec les nouveaux
Pole d'échanges gare Métropolitrain modes de déplacement
Saint Jean Pied de Port
Développement d’un quartier d'échanges.
Fonctions mixtes Habitat, activités et
services
4ha — 1601lgts (40lgts/ha)
Prolongement
sur Saint Jean le Vieux ?
Le parti d'aménagement Basse Navarre
2. | , Exemple de densification en cohérence avec les nouveaux Pole d'échanges gare Métropolitrain / Station Handaibus modes de déplacement
Saint Jean le Vieux
Développement d’un quartier d'échanges
avec prolongement de Ja ligne
métropolitrain et connexion avec ligne
Handiabus.
Fonctions mixtes Habitat, activités et
services
Habitat : 9ha — 270lgts (30lgts/ha)
Activités : 3ha
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.31 TS
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
par Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Basse Navarre : Pays de Mixe et Pays de Cize D Défi 2 : la mobilité durable
La Basse Navarre, au
cœur du Pays Basque |
Il est 10h00, le réveil sonne chez Laurent et Maider dans leur duplex du centre de St Palais : aujourd'hui c'est l'anniversaire de la
petite fille de Laurent. A 11h15, le couple de jeunes retraités prend la direction de la gare multimodale de Saïint-Palais pour
attraper un Handiabus. Le voyage se passe sans encombre dans un bus confortable et adapté aux problèmes de hanches de
Laurent (la plateforme d'entrée est abaissée). Alimentée par l'énergie mécanique des amortisseurs, la climatisation rend le voyage
supportable, Il est 12h00 quand Laurent et Maider retrouvent leur petite fille à Saint-Etienne-de-Baigorry pour un déjeuner festif,
Après un déjeuner dans leur restaurant préféré, le couple retourne dans le centre de Biarritz
vers 21h30, Un simple coup d'œil sur le Portail des Déplacements Basques leur indique qu'un
véhicule est disponible à la borne Askat’Auto de Biarritz, mais également qu'ils pourront se
f garer à celle de Saint-Palais. Maider les ramène tranquillement à la maison. En chemin, il croise le Handiabus qui relie Saint-Palais à Bidache.
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.32 (am)
Conseil de Développement du Pays Basque
Ipar Euskal Herriko Garapen Kontseilua
Première Contribution du CDPB au PDU p.33
ANNEXE 2 : COMPOSITION DE LA COMMISSION MOBILITES DU CDPB
NOM - DEITURA Prénom - Izena Organisme ou Citoyen – Egitura edo Herritarra
BERRA Jean-Michel HERRIKOA
BIBES Jean-Paul Citoyen
BOISSAU Adèle AZIA
CARRE Sébastien CPME
ETCHEMENDY René Invité (transport de voyageurs) CHAUTRU Lionel CESER
CHAUVIN Hélène TXIRRIND'OLA
DE LABACA Julien Invité (conseiller en mobilité) DURRUTY Dominika BIZI ! elkartea
HARISPE DORRE Xavier Citoyen – Co-référent de la Commission HARRIAGUE Dominique AVAP
JOIE André UPPA / ISABTP
MARTY Hélène ESTIA
MAYTÉ Philippe Enseignement Catholique– Co-référent de la Commission OUTRÉ Patrice AVAP
PARNIERE Paul Citoyen (Académicien) PIC-BONNAL Nicolas Citoyen 225
PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
LIVRE BLANC DE LA CONCERTATION ET
BILAN DE LA CONSULTATION
Annexes de la concertation
Contributions des internautes sur la
plateforme « Climat Action Pays
Basque »
Fichiers partagés atelier « Alimentation
et agriculture durables » ymmission on @'à@® rossMark
The Lancet Commissions
www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4 1
Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on
healthy diets from sustainable food systems
Walter Willett, Johan Rockström, Brent Loken, Marco Springmann, Tim Lang, Sonja Vermeulen, Tara Garnett, David Tilman, Fabrice DeClerck, Amanda Wood, Malin Jonell, Michael Clark, Line J Gordon, Jessica Fanzo, Corinna Hawkes, Rami Zurayk, Juan A Rivera, Wim De Vries, Lindiwe Majele Sibanda, Ashkan Afshin, Abhishek Chaudhary, Mario Herrero, Rina Agustina, Francesco Branca, Anna Lartey, Shenggen Fan, Beatrice Crona, Elizabeth Fox, Victoria Bignet, Max Troell, Therese Lindahl, Sudhvir Singh, Sarah E Cornell, K Srinath Reddy, Sunita Narain, Sania Nishtar, Christopher J L Murray
Executive summary
Food systems have the potential to nurture human health
and support environmental sustainability; however, they
are currently threatening both. Providing a growing
global population with healthy diets from sustainable
food systems is an immediate challenge. Although global
food production of calories has kept pace with population
growth, more than 820 million people have insufficient
food and many more consume low-quality diets that
cause micronutrient deficiencies and contribute to a
substantial rise in the incidence of diet-related obesity
and diet-related non-communicable diseases, including
coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. Unhealthy
diets pose a greater risk to morbidity and mortality than
does unsafe sex, and alcohol, drug, and tobacco use
combined. Because much of the world’s population is
inadequately nourished and many environmental sys-
tems and processes are pushed beyond safe boundaries
by food production, a global transformation of the food
system is urgently needed.
The absence of scientific targets for achieving healthy
diets from sustainable food systems has been hindering
large-scale and coordinated efforts to transform the
global food system. This Commission brings together
19 Commissioners and 18 coauthors from 16 counties
in various fields of human health, agriculture, political
sciences, and environmental sustainability to develop
global scientific targets based on the best evidence
available for healthy diets and sustainable food
production. These global targets define a safe operating
space for food systems that allow us to assess which diets
and food production practices will help ensure that the
UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Paris
Agreement are achieved.
We quantitatively describe a universal healthy reference
diet to provide a basis for estimating the health and
environmental effects of adopting an alternative diet to
standard current diets, many of which are high in
unhealthy foods. Scientific targets for a healthy reference
diet are based on extensive literature on foods, dietary
patterns, and health outcomes. This healthy reference
diet largely consists of vegetables, fruits, whole grains,
legumes, nuts, and unsaturated oils, includes a low to
moderate amount of seafood and poultry, and includes
no or a low quantity of red meat, processed meat, added
sugar, refined grains, and starchy vegetables. The global
average intake of healthy foods is substantially lower
than the reference diet intake, whereas overconsumption
of unhealthy foods is increasing. Using several
approaches, we found with a high level of certainty that
global adoption of the reference dietary pattern would
provide major health benefits, including a large reduction
in total mortality.
The Commission integrates, with quantification of
universal healthy diets, global scientific targets for
sustainable food systems, and aims to provide scientific
boundaries to reduce environmental degradation caused
by food production at all scales. Scientific targets for the
safe operating space of food systems were established for
six key Earth system processes. Strong evidence indicates
that food production is among the largest drivers of
global environmental change by contributing to climate
change, biodiversity loss, freshwater use, interference
with the global nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, and
land-system change (and chemical pollution, which is
not assessed in this Commission). Food production
depends on continued functioning of biophysical
systems and processes to regulate and maintain a stable
Earth system; therefore, these systems and processes
provide a set of globally systemic indicators of sustainable
food production. The Commission concludes that
quantitative scientific targets constitute universal and
scalable planetary boundaries for the food system.
However, the uncertainty range for these food boundaries
remains high because of the inherent complexity in
Earth system dynamics.
Diets inextricably link human health and environmental
sustainability. The scientific targets for healthy diets and
sustainable food systems are integrated into a common
framework, the safe operating space for food systems, so
that win-win diets (ie, healthy and environmentally
sustainable) can be identified. We propose that this
framework is universal for all food cultures and
production systems in the world, with a high potential of
local adaptation and scalability.
Application of this framework to future projections of
world development indicates that food systems can
provide healthy diets (ie, reference diet) for an estimated
global population of about 10 billion people by 2050 and
remain within a safe operating space. However, even
small increases in consumption of red meat or dairy
foods would make this goal difficult or impossible to
achieve. Within boundaries of food production, the
reference diet can be adapted to make meals that are
Published Online
January 16, 2019
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/
S0140-6736(18)31788-4
See Online/Comment
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/
S0140-6736(18)33179-9
Harvard T H Chan School of
Public Health, Harvard Medical
School, Channing Division of
Network Medicine, Brigham
and Women’s Hospital, Boston,
MA, USA (Prof W Willett MD);
Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany
(Prof J Rockström PhD);
Stockholm Resilience Centre,
Stockholm, Sweden
(Prof J Rockström, B Loken PhD,
F DeClerck PhD, A Wood PhD,
M Jonell PhD, L J Gordon PhD,
B Crona PhD, V Bignet MSc,
M Troell PhD, T Lindahl PhD,
S E Cornell PhD); EAT, Oslo,
Norway (B Loken, F DeClerck,
A Wood, S Singh MBChB);
University of Auckland,
Auckland, New Zealand
(S Singh); Oxford Martin
Programme on the Future of
Food and Centre on Population
Approaches for Non-
Communicable Disease
Prevention, Nuffield
Department of Population
Health (M Springmann PhD),
Food Climate Research
Network, Environmental
Change Institute and Oxford
Martin School (T Garnett PhD),
University of Oxford, Oxford,
UK; Centre for Food Policy, City,
University of London, London,
UK (Prof T Lang PhD,
Prof C Hawkes PhD); World Wide
Fund for Nature International,
Gland, Switzerland
(S Vermeulen PhD); Hoffmann
Centre for Sustainable Resource
Economy, Chatham House,
London, UK (S Vermeulen);
Department of Ecology,
Evolution and Behavior
(D Tilman PhD), Natural
Resources Science and
Management (M Clark PhD),
University of Minnesota, e School of
: Global
(S Fan PhD),
; Department
(A Chaudhary);
: Human
F Branca MD);
The Lancet Commissions
2 www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4
St Paul, MN, USA; Bren School
of Environmental Science and
Management, University of
California, Santa Barbara, CA,
USA (D Tilman); Biodiversity
International, CGIAR,
Montpellier, France
(F DeClerck); Nitze School of
Advanced International
Studies, Berman Institute of
Bioethics and Bloomberg
School of Public Health
(J Fanzo PhD), Berman Institute
of Bioethics (E Fox PhD), Johns
Hopkins University, MD, USA;
Department of Landscape
Design and Ecosystem
Management, Faculty of
Agricultural and Food Sciences,
American University of Beirut,
Beirut, Lebanon (R Zurayk PhD);
Instituto Nacional de Salud
Pública, Cuernavaca, México
(J A Rivera PhD); Wageningen
University and Research,
Environmental Systems
Analysis Group, Wageningen,
Netherlands
(Prof W De Vries PhD); Global
Alliance for Climate Smart
Agriculture, Bulawayo,
Zimbabwe
(L Majele Sibanda PhD);
Institute for Health Metrics
and Evaluation (A Afshin MD,
Prof C J L Murray MD),
International Food Policy
Research Institute (S Fan PhD),
University of Washington,
Seattle, USA; Institute of Food,
Nutrition and Health, ETH
Zurich, Switzerland
(A Chaudhary PhD); Department
of Civil Engineering, Indian
Institute of Technology,
Kanpur, India (A Chaudhary);
Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research
Organisation, Brisbane, QLD,
Australia (M Herrero PhD);
Department of Nutrition,
Faculty of Medicine,
Universitas Indonesia Dr Cipto
Mangunkusumo General
Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
(R Agustina MD); Human
Nutrition Research Center,
Indonesian Medical Education
and Research Institute, Faculty
of Medicine, Universitas
Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
(R Agustina); Department of
Nutrition for Health and
Development, World Health
Organization, Geneva,
Switzerland (F Branca MD);
Nutrition and Food Systems
Division, Economic and Social
Development Department,
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the UN, Rome,
consistent with food cultures and cuisines of all regions
of the world.
Because food systems are a major driver of poor health
and environmental degradation, global efforts are urgently
needed to collectively transform diets and food production.
An integrative framework combined with scientific targets
can provide essential support for a sustainable and healthy
food transformation. This Commission concludes that
global food systems can provide win-win diets to everyone
by 2050 and beyond. However, achieving this goal will
require rapid adoption of numerous changes and
unprecedented global collaboration and commitment:
nothing less than a Great Food Transformation.
We focus mainly on environmental sustainability of
food production and health consequences of final
consumption. However, the food system consists of
much more than these factors. A transformation of the
global food system should ultimately involve multiple
stakeholders, from individual consumers to policy
makers and all actors in the food supply chain, working
together towards the shared global goal of healthy and
sustainable diets for all.
However, humanity has never aimed to change the
global food system on the scale envisioned in this
Commission; this objective is uncharted policy territory
and the problems outlined in this Commission are not
easily fixed. Three lessons can be learned from other
examples of societal responses to global changes. First,
no single actor or breakthrough is likely to catalyse
systems change. Second, science and evidence-gathering
are essential for change. Third, a full range of policy
levers, from soft to hard, will be needed. Together, these
lessons guide the thinking that will be necessary to
transform the global food system. In addition, we outline
five specific and implementable strategies, which are
supported by a strong evidence base. Our modelling and
Key messages
1 Unhealthy and unsustainably produced food poses a global
risk to people and the planet. More than 820 million people
have insufficient food and many more consume an
unhealthy diet that contributes to premature death and
morbidity. Moreover, global food production is the largest
pressure caused by humans on Earth, threatening local
ecosystems and the stability of the Earth system.
2 Current dietary trends, combined with projected
population growth to about 10 billion by 2050, will
exacerbate risks to people and planet. The global burden
of non-communicable diseases is predicted to worsen and
the effects of food production on greenhouse-gas
emissions, nitrogen and phosphorus pollution,
biodiversity loss, and water and land use will reduce the
stability of the Earth system.
3 Transformation to healthy diets from sustainable food
systems is necessary to achieve the UN Sustainable
Development Goals and the Paris Agreement, and scientific
targets for healthy diets and sustainable food production
are needed to guide a Great Food Transformation.
4 Healthy diets have an appropriate caloric intake and consist
of a diversity of plant-based foods, low amounts of animal
source foods, unsaturated rather than saturated fats, and
small amounts of refined grains, highly processed foods,
and added sugars.
5 Transformation to healthy diets by 2050 will require
substantial dietary shifts, including a greater than 50%
reduction in global consumption of unhealthy foods, such
as red meat and sugar, and a greater than 100% increase in
consumption of healthy foods, such as nuts, fruits,
vegetables, and legumes. However, the changes needed
differ greatly by region.
6 Dietary changes from current diets to healthy diets are likely
to substantially benefit human health, averting about
10·8–11·6 million deaths per year, a reduction of 19·0–23·6%.
7 With food production causing major global environmental
risks, sustainable food production needs to operate within the
safe operating space for food systems at all scales on Earth.
Therefore, sustainable food production for about 10 billion
people should use no additional land, safeguard existing
biodiversity, reduce consumptive water use and manage water
responsibly, substantially reduce nitrogen and phosphorus
pollution, produce zero carbon dioxide emissions, and cause
no further increase in methane and nitrous oxide emissions.
8 Transformation to sustainable food production by 2050 will
require at least a 75% reduction of yield gaps, global
redistribution of nitrogen and phosphorus fertiliser use,
recycling of phosphorus, radical improvements in efficiency of
fertiliser and water use, rapid implementation of agricultural
mitigation options to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions,
adoption of land management practices that shift agriculture
from a carbon source to sink, and a fundamental shift in
production priorities.
9 The scientific targets for healthy diets from sustainable food
systems are intertwined with all UN Sustainable
Development Goals. For example, achieving these targets
will depend on providing high-quality primary health care
that integrates family planning and education on healthy
diets. These targets and the Sustainable Development Goals
on freshwater, climate, land, oceans, and biodiversity will be
achieved through strong commitment to global
partnerships and actions.
10 Achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems for
everyone will require substantial shifts towards healthy
dietary patterns, large reductions in food losses and waste,
and major improvements in food production practices.
This universal goal for all humans is within reach but will
require adoption of scientific targets by all sectors to
stimulate a range of actions from individuals and
organisations working in all sectors and at all scales. The Lancet Commissions
www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4 3
Italy (A Lartey PhD); The Beijer
Institute of Ecological
Economics, at the Royal
Swedish Academy of Sciences,
Stockholm, Sweden (M Troell,
T Lindahl); Public Health
Foundation of India,
Delhi,India NCR, India
(Prof K Srinath Reddy DM);
Centre for Science and
Environment, New Delhi, India
(S Narain PhD); Heartfile,
Islamabad, Pakistan
(S Nishtar MD); WHO High Level
Commission on NCDs, Geneva
Switzerland (S Nishtar); and
Chairperson Benazir Income
Support Program, Islamabad,
Pakistan (S Nishtar)
Correspondence to:
Dr Brent Loken, EAT, Oslo 0153,
Norway
brent@eatforum.org
analysis shows their effectiveness for achieving a Great
Food Transformation. These strategies are:
(1) Seek international and national commitment to
shift towards healthy diets. The scientific targets set by
this Commission provide guidance for the necessary
shift, which consists of increasing consumption of plant-
based foods and substantially reducing consumption of
animal source foods. Research has shown that this shift
will reduce environmental effects and improve health
outcomes. This concerted commitment can be achieved
by investment in public health information and sus-
tainability education, and improved coordination
between departments of health and environment.
(2) Re-orient agricultural priorities from producing
high quantities of food to producing healthy food.
Production should focus on a diverse range of nutritious
foods from biodiversity-enhancing food production
systems rather than increased volume of a few crops,
most of which are used for animal production.
(3) Sustainably intensify food production to increase
high-quality output. The current global food system is
unsustainable and requires an agricultural revolution
that is based on sustainable intensification and driven
by sustainability and system innovation. This change
would entail reducing yield gaps on cropland, radical
improvements in the efficiency of fertiliser and water use,
recycling phosphorus, redistributing global use of nitro-
gen and phosphorus, implementing climate mitigation
options, including changes in crop and feed management,
and enhancing biodiversity within agricultural systems.
(4) Strong and coordinated governance of land and
oceans. Such governance includes implementing a zero-
expansion policy of new agricultural land into natural
ecosystems and species-rich forests, management
policies aimed at restoring and re-foresting degraded
land, establishing mechanisms of international land-use
governance, and adopting a Half Earth strategy for
biodiversity conservation to safeguard resilience and
productivity in food production. The world’s oceans need
to be effectively managed to ensure that fisheries do not
negatively affect ecosystems, fish stocks are used
responsibly, and global aquaculture production is
expanded sustainably given its effect on and linkage to
both land and ocean ecosystems.
(5) At least halve food losses and waste, in line with
global sustainable development goals. Substantially
reducing the amount of food lost and wasted across the
food supply chain, from production to consumption, is
essential for the global food system to stay within its safe
operating space. Technological solutions will need to be
applied along the food supply chain and public policies
implemented to achieve a 50% reduction in food loss and
waste.
An opportunity exists to integrate food systems into
international, national, and business policy frameworks
aiming for improved human health and environmental
sustainability. Establishing clear, scientific targets to
guide food system transformation is an important step in
realising this opportunity.
Introduction
Food, planet, and health
In the past 50 years, global food production and dietary
patterns have changed substantially. Focus on increasing
crop yields and improving production practices have
contributed to reductions in hunger, improved life
expectancy, falling infant and child mortality rates, and
decreased global poverty.1,2 However, these health benefits
are being offset by global shifts to unhealthy diets that are
high in calories and heavily-processed and animal source
foods. These trends are driven partly by rapid urbanisation,
increasing incomes, and inadequate accessibility of
nutritious foods.3,4 Transitions to unhealthy diets are not
only increasing the burden of obesity and diet-related non-
communicable diseases, but are also contributing to
environmental degradation.5,6 Food in the Anthropocene
represents one of the greatest health and environmental
challenges of the 21st century.
The international community has taken steps in recent
decades to reduce hunger and improve nutrition through
global agendas such as the Millennium Development
Goals, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the
Decade of Action on Nutrition. However, wide-scale
undernutrition still exists alongside increasing prevalence
of overweight, obesity, and non-communicable diseases.
Low dietary quality contributes to undernutrition, over-
weight, and obesity, and has caused persistent micro-
nutrient deficiencies. Globally, more than 820 million
people remain undernourished,7 151 million children are
stunted, 51 million children are wasted,8 and more than
2 billion people are micronutrient deficient.9 Concurrently,
prevalence of diseases associated with high-calorie,
unhealthy diets are increasing, with 2·1 billion adults
overweight or obese10 and the global prevalence of diabetes
almost doubling in the past 30 years.11,12 Unhealthy diets
are the largest global burden of disease and pose a greater
risk to morbidity and mortality than does unsafe sex,
alcohol, drug, and tobacco use combined.4 Because
much of the global population is inadequately nourished
(ie, undernutrition, overnutrition, and malnutrition), the
world’s diets urgently need to be transformed.
Food production is the largest cause of global
environmental change. Agriculture occupies about
40% of global land, 13 and food production is responsible
for up to 30% of global greenhouse-gas emissions14
and 70% of freshwater use. 2,15 Conversion of natural
ecosystems to croplands and pastures is the largest factor
causing species to be threatened with extinction.16
Overuse and misuse of nitrogen and phosphorus causes
eutrophication and dead zones in lakes and coastal
zones. 17 Environmental burden from food production
also includes marine systems. About 60% of world fish
stocks are fully fished, more than 30% overfished, and
catch by global marine fisheries has been declining since ilossary
The Lancet Commissions
4 www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4
1996.18 In addition, the rapidly expanding aquaculture
sector can negatively affect coastal habitats, freshwater,
and terrestrial systems (related to the area directly used
for aquaculture and feed production). 19 Faced with the
challenge of feeding about 10 billion people a healthy and
sustainable diet by 2050, and with a rising number of
environmental systems and processes being pushed
beyond safe boundaries by food production, methods of
food production need to be urgently reviewed.
Integrated agenda for food systems
Diets are a major link between human health and
environmental sustainability.5,6 Lose-lose diets20 (ie, un-
healthy and environmentally unsustainable) are often
characterised as being high in calories, added sugars,
saturated fats, processed foods, and red meats. In addition,
environmental degradation resulting from these lose-lose
diets might further exacerbate poor health. Negative effects
include premature deaths caused by poor air quality from
biomass burning for agriculture and land clearing,21
reduced food security resulting from low yields due to
changing climatic conditions,22 diminished nutrient
content of some crops due to rising atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrations,23 and famine exacerbated by
extreme weather events such as drought.7 This Commission
focuses mainly on the link between diet, human health,
and environmental sustainability, whereas other Lancet
Commissions have explored additional areas.1,24,25
The global food system needs to be transformed to
reduce its effect on human health and environmental
Panel 1: Glossary
Anthropocene
A geological epoch that is characterised by humanity being the
dominating driver of change on Earth.
Biosphere
All parts of the Earth where life exists, including the lithosphere
(solid surface layer), hydrosphere (water), and atmosphere (air).
The biosphere plays an important part in regulating the Earth
system by driving energy and nutrient flow between
components.
Boundaries
Thresholds set at the low end of the scientific uncertainty range
that serve as guides for decision makers on acceptable levels of
risk. Boundaries are baselines, unchanging, and not time-bound.
Earth system
Earth’s interacting physical, chemical, and biological processes
consisting of land, oceans, atmosphere, and poles, and includes
Earth’s natural cycles— ie, carbon, water, nitrogen, phosphorus,
and other cycles. Life, including human society, is an integral
part of the Earth system and affects these natural cycles.
Food system
All elements and activities that relate to production, processing,
distribution, preparation, and consumption of food. This
Commission focuses on two endpoints of the global food
system; final consumption (healthy diets) and production
(sustainable food production).
Great Food Transformation
The unprecedented range of actions taken by all food system
sectors across all levels that aim to normalise healthy diets from
sustainable food systems.
Non-communicable disease
Long-term diseases, also known as chronic diseases, which are
caused by a combination of genetic, physiological,
environmental, and behavioural factors. The main types of
non-communicable diseases are cardiovascular diseases,
cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes.
Planetary boundaries
Nine boundaries, each representing a system or process that is
important for regulating and maintaining stability of the
planet. They define global biophysical limits that humanity
should operate within to ensure a stable and resilient Earth
system—ie, conditions that are necessary to foster prosperity
for future generations.
Safe operating space for food systems
A space that is defined by scientific targets for human health
and environmentally sustainable food production set by this
Commission. Operating within this space allows humanity to
feed healthy diets to about 10 billion people within biophysical
limits of the Earth system.
Scientific targets
Targets that are reached through international scientific
consensus, based on the latest available science, and are
time-bound. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
has provided scientific targets defining ranges of maximum
carbon dioxide emissions allowed to remain less than
different levels of average mean global temperature rise. This
Commission is providing global scientific targets defining
ranges of the amount and types of food groups necessary for
human health and boundaries we should stay within to
reduce environmental degradation due to food production at
all scales.
Science-based targets
Targets developed through collaboration and negotiation
that build on expertise and rigor used to reach international
scientific consensus on an issue (eg, scientific targets set by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). These
targets are used, for example, to allocate a proportion of the
required global emissions reduction targets, in line with the
Paris Agreement, to an individual company in a fair and
transparent way. These targets differ from scientific targets
because they are based on science but factor in feasibility
and viability. take of
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stability and begin reversing current trends. However,
this transformation will not be achieved without people
changing how they view and engage with food systems.
This change in thinking should recognise the inextricable
link between human health and environmental sus-
tainability and integrate these separate concerns into a
common global agenda to achieve healthy diets from
sustainable food systems. The call for an integrated agenda
began in the 1980s,26 whereas the concept of healthy and
sustainable food, the focus of this Commission, has only
emerged in recent years.
Two major global agendas focus on human health
and environmental sustainability. The UN Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs)27 seek to end poverty, protect
the planet, ensure prosperity for all, and eradicate hunger
and malnourishment. This ambitious and inclusive
international policy framework includes human health
or environmental sustainability in most of its goals. The
Paris Agreement, although focused on climate change,
also addresses the effects of climate change on human
health. Furthermore, reaching the Paris Agreement of
limiting global warming to well below 2°C, aiming for
1·5°C, is not possible by only decarbonising the global
energy system. Transitioning to food systems that can
provide negative emissions (ie, function as a major
carbon sink instead of a major carbon source) and
protecting carbon sinks in natural ecosystems are both
required to reach this goal. A revolutionary change in
food systems to support human health and environmental
sustainability is essential to the Paris Agreement. 28 Given
the disproportionate effect of food systems on human
health and environmental sustainability, these global
agendas provide an unprecedented opportunity for
catalysing the change in thinking that will be necessary
to transform the global food system.
Safe operating space for food systems
An integrated agenda of human health and environmental
sustainability alone will not be enough to achieve the
SDGs and Paris Agreement. Clear scientific targets that
define healthy diets and sustainable food production are
necessary to guide policy makers, businesses, and all food
system actors. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) has set scientific targets for climate,
defining ranges of maximum carbon dioxide emissions
allowed to remain within different levels of average global
temperature rise. These emission targets have provided
estimates of remaining carbon budgets and climate risks
for societies, which have formed the basis for the Paris
Agreement, by 195 nations. However, the 1·5–2°C Paris
range is a science-based target (panel 1), agreed on
through negotiations and political consensus and based
on the latest scientific understanding. For the global food
system, clear scientific targets do not exist. This absence
of targets is a barrier for policy makers and businesses
looking for guidance in achieving their food-related SDG
goals and commitments under the Paris Agreement.
We can conceptualise an integrated agenda of human
health and environmental sustainability for the global food
system that has clear scientific targets using the concept of
a safe operating space for food systems. The concept of a
safe operating space for humanity, proposed by Rockström
and colleagues in 2009,29 originates from the planetary
Macronutrient
intake (possible
range), g/day
Caloric
intake,
kcal/day
Whole grains*
Rice, wheat, corn, and other† 232 (total gains
0–60% of energy)
811
Tubers or starchy vegetables
Potatoes and cassava 50 (0–100) 39
Vegetables
All vegetables 300 (200–600) ··
Dark green vegetables 100 23
Red and orange vegetables 100 30
Other vegetables 100 25
Fruits
All fruit 200 (100–300) 126
Dairy foods
Whole milk or derivative equivalents
(eg, cheese)
250 (0–500) 153
Protein sources‡
Beef and lamb 7 (0–14) 15
Pork 7 (0–14) 15
Chicken and other poultry 29 (0–58) 62
Eggs 13 (0–25) 19
Fish§ 28 (0–100) 40
Legumes
Dry beans, lentils, and peas* 50 (0–100) 172
Soy foods 25 (0–50) 112
Peanuts 25 (0–75) 142
Tree nuts 25 149
Added fats
Palm oil 6·8 (0–6·8) 60
Unsaturated oils¶ 40 (20–80) 354
Dairy fats (included in milk) 0 0
Lard or tallow|| 5 (0–5) 36
Added sugars
All sweeteners 31 (0–31) 120
For an individual, an optimal energy intake to maintain a healthy weight will
depend on body size and level of physical activity. Processing of foods such as
partial hydrogenation of oils, refining of grains, and addition of salt and
preservatives can substantially affect health but is not addressed in this table.
*Wheat, rice, dry beans, and lentils are dry, raw. †Mix and amount of grains can vary
to maintain isocaloric intake. ‡Beef and lamb are exchangeable with pork and vice
versa. Chicken and other poultry is exchangeable with eggs, fish, or plant protein
sources. Legumes, peanuts, tree nuts, seeds, and soy are interchangeable. §Seafood
consist of fish and shellfish (eg, mussels and shrimps) and originate from both
capture and from farming. Although seafood is a highly diverse group that contains
both animals and plants, the focus of this report is solely on animals. ¶Unsaturated
oils are 20% each of olive, soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, and peanut oil. ||Some lard
or tallow are optional in instances when pigs or cattle are consumed.
Table 1: Healthy reference diet, with possible ranges, for an intake of
2500 kcal/day (1-80)
Jantify
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boundaries framework and is defined as “the safe
operating space for humanity with respect to the Earth
system and are associated with the planet’s biophysical
subsystems or processes”. We use the planetary boundaries
framework as a guide to propose a safe operating space
for food systems that encompasses human health and
environmental sustainability. This space is defined by
scientific targets that set ranges of intakes for food groups
(ie, 100–300 g/day of fruit) to ensure human health (table 1)
and planetary boundaries for food production to ensure a
stable Earth system. These boundaries include the total
global amount of cropland use, biodiversity loss, water use,
greenhouse-gas emissions, and nitrogen and phosphorus
pollution that can be due to food production (table 2).
These boundaries for human health and food production
identify the safe operating space within which food
systems should jointly operate to ensure that a broad set of
universal human health and environmental sustainability
goals are achieved.
Boundaries that define a safe operating space for food
systems are difficult to set in complex systems, and need
to be refined over time. The Earth system and human
biology are complex adaptive systems, characterised by
interactions and feedback loops. All scientific targets for
a safe operating space for healthy diets and sustainable
food production are therefore associated with uncertainty.
By applying a precautionary and risk perspective,
boundaries are placed at the lower end of the scientific
uncertainty range, establishing, with a high likelihood, a
safe space in which food systems can operate. 30 These
boundaries should be viewed as guides for decision
makers on acceptable levels of risk for human health and
environmentally sustainable food production. Operating
outside this space for any Earth system process (eg, high
rates of biodiversity loss) or food group (eg, insufficient
vegetable intake) increases risk for harm to the stability
of the Earth system and human health. When viewed
together as an integrated human health and environ-
mental sustainability agenda, win-win diets,20 that fall
within the safe operating space for food systems, will
help to achieve global human health and environmental
sustainability goals.
Scope and limitations
This Commission brings together scientists from several
disciplines to assess the global food system and set global
scientific targets for shifting the world towards healthy
diets and sustainable food production. Because setting
such targets can be difficult, this Commission focuses on
two endpoints of the global food system: final consum-
ption (healthy diets) and production (sustainable food
production). These factors disproportionately affect
human health and environmental sustainability; however,
the food system is not only affected by these two endpoints.
Throughout the Commission we use the term food system
and acknowledge that food systems are not limited to food
production and consumption. Food systems are
comprised of all the elements (eg, environment, people,
inputs, processes, infrastructures, and institutions) and
activities that relate to the production, processing,
distribution, preparation and consumption of food.31 By
referring to the food system throughout the Commission,
our intention is to emphasise that the Great Food
Transformation can only be achieved with all actors in all
parts of the food system working collectively towards this
transformation. Furthermore, we acknowledge that food
systems also affect society, culture, economy, and animal
welfare. However, given the breadth and depth of the
topics discussed, many important issues could not be
discussed. These and other issues should be considered to
achieve healthy diets from sustainable food systems.
This Commission is not setting actionable science-
based targets (panel 1) on behalf of any country, sector, or
business, nor does it have a mandate to do so. This
Commission is an independent scientific body using the
latest available science to make a global assessment of
the food system and set global scientific targets for
healthy diets and sustainable food production. These
targets form the first attempt to provide scientific
guidance for a transformation towards healthy diets from
sustainable food systems. The goal, in the absence of an
intergovernmental scientific panel or comprehensive
agreement for food, is for science to continue refining
definitions of global scientific targets for human health
and environmentally sustainable food production while
business and policy makers begin translating these
definitions into operational science-based targets for
various sectors, regions, and countries.
The planetary boundaries framework expands the
definition of sustainable food production to include the
global nature of food production’s environmental effects,
connecting local to global scales. However, this framework
does not provide a plan for translating global targets to
national and subnational governments, businesses, and
other local actors. This approach is intended to inform
national, sectoral, and sociopolitical targets and prioriti-
sations, highlighting the global environmental context
within which these diverse activity areas should fit. This
approach becomes a first step in connecting a planetary
perspective with context-specific levels of action.
Control variable Boundary (uncertainty range)
Climate change Greenhouse-gas (CH 4 and N2O)
emissions
5 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent
per year (4·7–5·4)
Nitrogen cycling Nitrogen application 90 Tg of nitrogen per year (65–90;* 90–130†)
Phosphorus cycling Phosphorus application 8 Tg of phosphorus per year (6–12;* 8–16†)
Freshwater use Consumptive water use 2500 km³ per year (1000–4000)
Biodiversity loss Extinction rate Ten extinctions per million species-years (1–80)
Land-system change Cropland use 13 million km² (11–15)
*Lower boundary range if improved production practices and redistribution are not adopted. †Upper boundary range
if improved production practices and redistribution are adopted and 50% of applied phosphorus is recycled.
Table 2: Scientific targets for six key Earth system processes and the control variables used to quantify the boundaries pr'appe
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In this Commission, we do not propose a simple
global fix to the problems discussed. The safe operating
space for food systems will require implementation of
a variety and multitude of solutions and innovations.
For food production, we avoid comparing specific
production systems (eg, organic vs conventional)
because numerous comparisons exist 32 and debates
about specific production systems and diets can be
overly prescriptive and mask diversity of contexts and
available solutions. We give guidance on healthy diets
but provide sufficient scope for many global dietary
patterns (eg, vegetarian and pescatarian) to be
considered. This scope is captured by use of broad food
groups and intake ranges that allow for various dietary
preferences to be considered. Guaranteed solutions
neither exist nor would allow users of this analysis to
adopt a holistic concept of a safe operating space for
food systems that will be needed.
This Commission does not explore various population
growth scenarios, such as the Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways. A major driver of increasing requirements for
food is a growing global population, which is expected to
increase from about 7·6 billion people in 2017, to
9·8 billion people in 2050. Reducing the rate of population
growth will therefore be essential for achieving healthy
and sustainable diets for the world’s population. Universal
access to sexual and reproductive health-care services
(including family planning), information, and education
will be necessary components of this goal. Our analysis
follows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 for a
moderate population growth (9·2 billion people), and
trends (ie, population growth, GDP) broadly follow
historical patterns (appendix p 1).
Lastly, although this Commission uses 2050 as a cutoff,
the issues discussed extend beyond 2050. Global
population is expected to exceed 11 billion people by 2100
unless actions are taken to stabilise population growth
(appendix p 2). Healthy diets from sustainable food
systems are possible for up to 10 billion people but
becomes increasingly unlikely past this population
threshold.
Treatment of uncertainty
Few decisions about diet, human health, and environ-
mental sustainability can be made on the basis of absolute
certainty because evidence is incomplete, imperfect, and
continually evolving; therefore, certainty should be
considered as a continuum. We have attempted to base
estimates on the best available science, and we acknowledge
that uncertainty exists. Therefore, when possible, we
acknowledge this uncertainty and our confidence in the
validity of our findings and qualitatively discuss this on the
basis of the type, quantity, quality, and consistency of
evidence. We have a high level of scientific certainty about
the overall direction and magnitude of associations
described in this Commission, although considerable un-
certainty exists around detailed quantifications. Modelling
and sensitivity analysis provide ways to explore the
implications of this uncertainty.
Section 1: Healthy diets
What is a heathy diet?
Defining healthy dietary patterns is important for many
reasons. For example, they are used to provide dietary
guidance to a population, provide assessment and
counselling in clinical settings, develop practices and
policies designed to enhance diet, and monitor trends in
diet quality for an individual or a population. However,
practical considerations make defining a global healthy
diet challenging. These difficulties include different
nutritional needs of people because of age, sex, disease
status, and physical activity levels, and needs of vulnerable
populations (ie, young children and pregnant women).
A healthy diet should optimise health, defined broadly
by WHO as being a state of complete physical, mental,
and social wellbeing, and not just absence of disease. We
focus on diets for generally healthy individuals aged
2 years and older. Young children (aged 0–2 years) have
unique requirements to support rapid growth and
development, but their diets have only minor effects on
food systems because they constitute a small proportion
of a stable population and have low absolute food
requirements. Because animal source foods can have
important effects on human health and environmental
sustainability, detail will be given to these foods. The
conclusions of this section are based only on health
outcomes. Although important, we do not consider food
safety (ie, microbial or other forms of contamination).
We define a healthy diet using food groups while taking
into consideration nutritional adequacy because this
most directly connects food production and health, and
because most dietary guidelines are based primarily on
food groups. However, a focus exclusively on food groups
does not incorporate added fats, sugar, salt, and other
constituents, so these will also be considered. The
definition of a healthy diet is based on evidence from
controlled feeding studies in humans with intermediate
risk factors as outcomes, observational studies, and
randomised trials. Where available, we cite systematic
reviews, meta-analyses, and pooled analyses of primary
data (appendix pp 4–12). Extensive reviews documenting
the importance of dietary quality have been published
elsewhere.33,34
The healthy dietary pattern we propose consists of
ranges of intakes for each food group. This pattern allows
for flexible, global application of these criteria (table 1),
with foods and amounts tailored to preferences and
cultures of different populations (panel 2).
Uncertainty in estimates of a healthy diet
We have a high level of confidence, based on many
reproducible lines of evidence, that the reference diet
that we have defined will meet nutritional requirements
for children older than 2 years and adults, and reduce
See Online for appendix nce diet
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the incidence of non-communicable diseases and overall
mortality. Optimal quantities of specific food groups are
often less clear partly because they depend on intakes of
other dietary components. Additionally, for some food
groups, the association between intake and health risks
is approximately linear, making specification of optimal
intake difficult. Although a linear positive association
would suggest an optimal intake of zero, an effect of
zero intake with an adverse outcome is not possible to
distinguish from that of a small intake. Furthermore, all
food groups in a diet need to fit within a constrained
total energy intake. To make calculations possible for
total nutrient intakes, health effects, and environmental
effects for overall diets, we provide a number for each
food group of the healthy reference diet. We also provide
an uncertainty range (upper and lower limits) that
appears to be compatible with optimal health and within
consumption ranges of at least some populations
globally because this provides some evidence of long-
term safety. In subsequent analyses, we use alternative
values for some key food groups for sensitivity analyses.
Using several approaches, we estimate the effect of the
reference diet on premature mortality. We anticipate
further research will provide improved precision in
defining ranges for optimal intakes of specific food
groups and health effects of overall diets.
Status of knowledge
Energy and energy balance
The global average per capita energy intake has been
estimated as 2370 kcal per day.30 In a rigorous and large
pooled analysis35 of adults from the USA, energy intake
was about 2800 kcal per day for men and 2000–2200 kcal
per day for women. Energy intake would be lower in
populations with lower body-mass index (BMI; calculated
as kg/m²) and higher in populations with greater physical
activity. We have therefore used 2500 kcal per day as a
basis for different isocaloric dietary scenarios (ie, having
similar caloric values). Consuming 2500 kcal per day
corresponds to the average energy needs of a 70-kg man
aged 30 years and a 60-kg woman aged 30 years whose
level of physical activity is moderate to high. This energy
intake is higher than the intake of 2100 kcal/day used in
other analyses that assumed a BMI of about 22, which is
substantially lower than the global average BMI.
Although an average BMI of 22 would be healthier than
population averages, effective means of reversing the
obesity epidemic in many countries have not been
identified. Thus, assuming this BMI and a lower energy
intake is risky and would leave little room for public
health goals to increase physical activity because this will
require additional food energy. Although use of different
values for energy intake would affect absolute required
food production, it would minimally affect conclusions
regarding relative effects of different dietary scenarios on
environmental or health outcomes.
Dietary components
Major protein sources
Adequate protein intake for adults is 0·8 g/kg
bodyweight, which is 56 g/day for a 70-kg individual or
about 10% of energy intake. Protein quality (defined by
effect on growth rate) reflects the amino acid composition
of the food source, and animal sources of protein are of
higher quality than most plant sources. High-quality
protein is particularly important for growth of infants
and young children, and possibly in older people losing
muscle mass in later life. However, a mix of amino acids
that maximally stimulate cell replication and growth
might not be optimal throughout most of adult life
because rapid cell replication can increase cancer risk.36
Protein can have indirect beneficial metabolic effects
by replacing excessive carbohydrate intake, especially
if this intake is refined starch and sugar. In a large
controlled feeding trial,37 replacing carbohydrate iso-
calorically with protein reduced blood pressure and blood
lipid concentrations. Similar effects were seen with
monounsaturated fat replacing carbohydrate, suggesting
that benefits were due to reduced carbohydrate intake.
Because protein is consumed as a part of foods that
contain fat and many other constituents that affect
health, protein food sources, or packages, should be
considered when investigating or making food choices.
Although most foods contain some protein, meat, dairy,
fish, eggs, legumes (including soy), and nuts (including
peanuts) are high in protein and often considered as
alternatives to one another in many culinary traditions.
These major protein sources are also commonly used to
define diets, such as omnivore, vegetarian, pescatarian,
or vegan.
Panel 2: Feasibility of reference diet
Although the reference diet, which is based on health considerations, is consistent with many traditional eating patterns, for some individuals or populations this diet might seem extreme or not feasible. However, from a global perspective the features of this diet, which could include strict vegetarian diets and consumption of modest amounts of animal source foods, have well established traditions in various regions. The best studied example is the Mediterranean diet, similar to the diet of Crete in the mid-20th century. This diet was low in red meat (average intake of red meat and poultry combined was 35 g/day)12 and largely plant-based, but high in total fat intake (about 40% of energy) consumed mainly as olive oil.13 Greeks had one of the longest life expectancies at the time.14
Many other traditional diets, such as those in Indonesia, Mexico, India, China, and West Africa, also include little red meat, which might be consumed only on special occasions or as minor ingredients of mixed dishes.15–17 Some of these cultures have also consumed few or no dairy foods, often corresponding with lactose intolerance and lower rates of bone fracture than have countries with high dairy consumption.18 High consumption of nuts is traditional in some West African populations (ie, about 100 g/day in Niger) and large amounts of soy foods are consumed in many Asian populations (ie, 46 g/day in Taiwan).16 Legume consumption has traditionally been high in many cultures, such as Mexico, India, and Rwanda. 15,19 Thus, ample precedent exists for the ranges of food intakes represented by the reference diet, and the culinary experiences of different regions provide many opportunities to learn new ways of preparing diets that are healthy and enjoyable. The Lancet Commissions
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In a review, 33 the 2015 US Dietary Guidelines Advisory
Committee concluded that for people older than 2 years,
a balanced vegetarian diet can be a healthy eating pattern.
In the largest prospective study38 of vegetarian diets,
people following vegan, vegetarian, pescatarian, or semi-
vegetarian diets had 12% lower overall mortality risk than
did omnivores; the lowest risk was among pescatarian
diets.38 Using another approach, a plant-based dietary
score (assigning positive values to the consumption of
healthy plant-based foods, but not refined grains or
sugar, and negative values to animal-sourced foods) was
inversely and linearly associated with risk of type
2 diabetes and coronary heart disease. 39,40 These findings
suggest that a shift towards a dietary pattern emphasising
whole grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts, and legumes
without necessarily becoming a strict vegan, will be
beneficial.
Most analyses of foods high in protein and health
outcomes have not specified any comparison food. Thus,
in an isocaloric analysis, the comparison food becomes
the mix of foods comprising the rest of the diet, to which
refined carbohydrates (eg, white bread, polished rice, or
corn and sugar) are typically the major contributors.
Despite this limitation, in a meta-analysis of prospective
studies,41 consumption of processed red meat (beef, pork,
or lamb) was associated with increased risk of death from
any cause and cardiovascular disease; unprocessed red
meat was also weakly associated with cardiovascular dis-
ease mortality. Although data were scarce, consumption of
white meat (poultry and fish) was not associated with
increased mortality. In other meta-analyses, consumption
of red meat was associated with increased risk of stroke42
and type 2 diabetes.43 In two large studies,44–46 red meat
(processed and unprocessed) was linearly associated with
total mortality, and without a threshold, suggesting that
optimal intake would be low (appendix p 2). In a pooled
analysis of three large cohorts, an increment of about
35 g/day of red meat was associated with a significant
increase (6%) in risk of type 2 diabetes, and this association
was also approximately linear.47
Other analyses have compared different protein
sources with risk of additional important health out-
comes. Although consumption of red meat was only
weakly associated with increased risk of coronary heart
disease when compared with the rest of the diet, red
meat was clearly associated with increased risk of
coronary heart disease when specifically compared with
consumption of poultry and fish, and especially nuts
and legumes. Similar associations have been seen in
analyses with type 2 diabetes, stroke, and total mortality
(appendix p 2). 44,45 Low intake of red meat is consistent
with traditional Mediterranean diets that have been
associated with exceptional longevity (panel 2). In the
1960s, when incidence of coronary heart disease and
overall mortality was low in Greek men living in Crete,
their average intake of red meat and poultry combined
was 35 g/day. 48
Based on evidence related to colorectal cancer,
processed red meat (eg, treated with salt or other
preservatives) was determined by the International
Agency for Research on Cancer review to be a group 1
carcinogen, and because data were less consistent,
unprocessed red meat was classified as a group 2
carcinogen. Consumption of other major protein sources
during midlife and later has not been clearly related to
other types of cancer, compared with a low intake of red
meat during adolescence 49 and early adult life, 50 high
intake has been associated with an elevated risk of breast
cancer.
In a prospective cohort analysis,51 protein intakes from
food sources were assessed in relation to total and cause-
specific mortality among 131 000 men and women
followed up with repeated measures of diet for up to
32 years. Replacing protein from animal sources with
protein from plant sources was associated with sub-
stantially reduced overall mortality. Hazard ratios were
0·66 (95% CI 0·59–0·75) when 3% of energy from plant
protein replaced an equivalent amount of protein from
processed red meat and 0·88 (0·84–0·92) from
unprocessed red meat.
High risks of cardiovascular disease and other
outcomes associated with high consumption of red meat
are probably partly due to multiple food constituents of
animal sources of protein. The high ratio of saturated to
polyunsaturated fat and high levels of heat-induced
carcinogens and haem iron might contribute to higher
risks of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and some
cancers in people who eat red meat than in people who
eat plant sources of protein.46 Notably, essential poly-
unsaturated fatty acids comprise only 4% of lipids in beef
tallow, but 21% in chicken fat, and 40% in salmon fat.
The composition of processed meats is heterogeneous,
but many contain high amounts of sodium, nitrates,
nitrites, and other preservatives that might add to cancer
risks.
Most of the available evidence has been from studies
done in Europe and the USA. In a pooled analysis of
Asian cohort studies, 52 poultry and red meat consumption
(mainly pork) was inversely associated with all-cause
mortality. The discrepancies between this analysis and
those from Europe and the USA might be partly
explained by the fact that Asian populations eat smaller
amounts of meat than European and American
populations. The authors noted that the findings could
be due to confounding factors because meat might be
more available to individuals of high socioeconomic
status, who also have better overall health, than those
of low socioeconomic status. Because many Asian
countries have only recently become affluent (ie, past
10–20 years), current red meat intake does not reflect
long-term intakes; like for smoking, many decades
are needed to show the full health consequences of
high consumption. Among Chinese people living in
Singapore, which has been affluent for several decades, 1 Africa
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red meat consumption has been associated with risk of
type 2 diabetes 47,53 However, in low-income populations
in which the majority of energy comes from starchy
carbohydrates, the addition of meat or other major
protein sources is likely to mitigate micronutrient
deficiencies and have metabolic benefits by reducing
high glycaemic load (panel 3).
Because intake of red meat is not essential and appears
to be linearly related to total mortality and risks of other
health outcomes in populations that have consumed
it for many years, optimal intake might be 0 g/day,
especially if replaced by plant sources of protein. Because
data on risk of low intakes of red meat are imprecise, we
have concluded that an intake of 0 g/day to about 28 g/day
of red meat is desirable and have used a midpoint of
14 g/day for the reference diet. Since consumption of
poultry has been associated with better health outcomes
than has red meat, we have concluded that the optimum
consumption of poultry is 0 g/day to about 58 g/day and
have used a midpoint of 29 g/day for the reference diet
(table 1).
High intake of dairy products, at least three servings
per day, has been widely promoted in western counties
for bone health and fracture prevention, primarily
because of their high calcium content. However, the
optimum calcium intake remains uncertain. Recom-
mendations in the USA of 1200 mg/day are derived from
balance studies lasting 3 weeks or less,54 which probably
reflect transient movements of calcium in and out of
bone rather than long-term requirements. A WHO
review, noting that regions with low intake of dairy foods
and calcium have lower fracture rates than regions with
high dairy consumption, 55 concluded that 500 mg/day is
adequate and lower intakes might be adequate in areas
with low fracture rates. The UK has concluded that
700 mg/day is an adequate intake. 56 These lower amounts
for adequate intake (compared with the USA) have major
implications for dietary recommendations because many
foods contain modest amounts of calcium, and eating a
wide variety of diets with no dairy foods will include
300–400 mg of calcium. Although prospective studies
have been heterogeneous, overall evidence suggests that
among adults, risk of fractures is not substantially
reduced with calcium intakes greater than 500 mg/day. 57
One 250 g serving of milk per day contains about 300 mg
of calcium. This reference diet contains 718 mg/day of
calcium.
Data on dairy consumption during childhood and
adolescence and long-term health outcomes are scarce,
but high intake might be particularly important because
of skeletal growth. However, high consumption of milk
in adolescent girls was not associated with reduced risk
of hip fracture later in life, and in adolescent boys, high
milk consumption was associated with increased risk of
fractures.58
Prospective studies do not show a significant increase or
decrease in risk of overall mortality or cardiovascular
disease with increasing consumption of dairy foods,59
although overall and cardiovascular mortality is likely to
decrease if dairy foods are replaced with nuts and other
plant sources of protein.51 High milk consumption,
probably because of its calcium content, is associated with
Panel 3: Animal source foods in sub-Saharan Africa
People in sub-Saharan Africa are some of the most nutritionally
insecure on the planet. About 220 million people have
inadequate nutrition.1 Despite micronutrient supplementation
programmes, the burden of multiple micronutrient deficiencies,
as well as anaemia and stunting, remains high. Although several
countries have substantially reduced the proportion of people
who are starving and whose growth is stunted (ie, Rwanda 44%
to 24·5%; Uganda 38·3% to 29%; Ghana 46% absolute decline;
Tanzania 50% to 34%; Malawi 53% to 37%), declines in children
who are stunted in Africa have been marginal—from 38% in
1990 to 34% in 2008.2 Of the 36 countries with the highest
burden of stunting among children younger than 2 years,
21 (58%) are in Africa, and 40% or more children in most of
those countries are stunted. This undernutrition is sometimes
associated with low consumption of animal source and other
protein rich foods.3
Because carbohydrate intake is high in many parts of
sub-Saharan Africa, promotion of animal source foods for
children, including livestock products, can improve dietary
quality, micronutrient intake, nutrient status, and overall
health.4–7 In observational studies, high intake of animal source
foods has been associated with improved growth,
micronutrient status, cognitive performance, and motor
development, and increased activity in children.
However, per-capita consumption of animal source foods in
sub-Saharan Africa has decreased in the past few decades and
remains low at about 164 kcal/capita per day (Zambia),
compared with 995 kcal/capita per day in the USA. Based on
projections by the Food and Agricultural Organization,
availability of animal source protein across sub-Saharan Africa
will only be 13 g/person per day in 2050, which is less than half
of the world average of animal source protein availability in
2011 and less than the recommended quantity in our healthy
reference diet (table 1).
Because many regions, such as sub-Saharan Africa, still face
severe burdens of undernutrition and malnutrition, and
growing children often do not obtain adequate quantities of
nutrients from plant source foods alone,8–11 the role of animal
source foods should be examined carefully. Achieving healthy
diets from sustainable food systems for everyone on the planet
is possible; however, to accomplish this goal, local and regional
realities need to be carefully considered. The Lancet Commissions
www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4 11
reduced risk of colorectal cancer,60 but also increased risk
of prostate cancer in men,61 especially advanced cases.62
Some evidence suggests that yoghurt might reduce risk of
diabetes and weight gain.63,64 Although low-fat dairy foods
might be preferable to high-fat dairy foods for health,
nearly all the fat in milk that is produced remains in the
human food supply, often as butter or cream. Thus, low-
fat dairy products will have little overall effect on
population health because fat is consumed in other forms.
Because a clear association does not exist between
intake of milk or its derivatives greater than 0–500 g/day
and major health outcomes, and competing risks for
some types of cancer, a wide range of intakes are com-
patible with good health. Because consumption of
unsaturated plant oils conveys lower risks of cardio-
vascular disease than does dairy fat, optimal intake will
usually be at the lower end of this range, and we have
used 250 g/day for the reference diet.
Fish intake has been associated with reduced risk of
cardiovascular disease. 65,66 Fish has a high content of
omega-3 fatty acids, which have many essential roles,
including being precursors of eicosanoids, a large com-
ponent of the CNS, a structural element of every cell of
the body, and a regulator of cardiac rhythm. Eating about
2 g/week of omega-3 fatty acids in fish, equal to about
one or two servings of fatty fish a week, might reduce
the chances of dying from heart disease by more than
a third.65
Fish that are high on the food chain can bioconcentrate
mercury, which has neurological toxicity. Mercury
concentrations are high in king mackerel, shark, sword-
fish, tuna, and tilefish, which should be avoided by
pregnant and lactating women. However, adequate
intakes of omega-3 fatty acids are essential for neuro-
development, and eating more than two servings of fish
per week or taking fish oil supplements during
pregnancy has been associated with improved child
cognitive performance. 67 Mercury toxicity can be
avoided by consuming small fish, and omega-3 fatty
acids from plant sources (specifically α-linolenic acid)
have been associated with reduced risk of coronary
heart disease. 68 The degree to which omega-3 fatty acids
from plant sources can substitute omega-3 fatty acids
from fish for other health outcomes is important to
determine because plant sources are more widely
available.
About 28 g/day of fish can provide essential omega-3
fatty acids and is associated with reduced risk of
cardiovascular disease; therefore, we have used this
intake for the reference diet. We also suggest a range of
0–100 g/day because high intakes are associated with
excellent health. Plant sources of α-linolenic acid can
provide an alternative to omega-3 fatty acids, but the
quantity required is not clear.
Eggs are a widely available source of high-quality
protein and other essential nutrients needed to support
rapid growth. Despite past concern about possible
increases in risk of heart disease because of their high
content of cholesterol, in large prospective studies69 high
consumption of eggs, up to one a day, has not been
associated with increased risk of heart disease, except in
people with diabetes. However, the default comparison
in these studies has been the remaining typical diet,
which is often far from ideal. Isocaloric substitution of
plant protein sources for eggs might therefore reduce
risk of non-communicable diseases. However, in low-
income countries, replacing calories from a staple starchy
food with an egg can substantially improve the nutritional
quality of a child’s diet and reduce stunting.70 We have
used an intake of eggs at about 13 g/day, or about 1·5 eggs
per week, for the reference diet, but higher intake might
be beneficial for low-income populations with poor
dietary quality.
Nuts, including peanuts, are nutrient-dense and
contain primarily unsaturated fatty acids, fibre,
vitamins, minerals, antioxidants, and phytosterols. In
observational and intervention studies 71,72 nut con-
sumption reduces blood lipid concentrations, oxidative
stress, inflammation, visceral adiposity, hyperglycaemia,
and insulin resistance. In a meta-analysis of 25 con-
trolled feeding studies, 72 participants were fed an
average of 67 g/day of nuts; blood concentrations of LDL
cholesterol and triglycerides and the LDL cholesterol to
HDL cholesterol ratio were reduced in a dose-response
manner. In prospective studies, high consumption of
nuts has been associated with reduced risk of
cardiovascular disease, 73–75 type 2 diabetes, and overall
mortality. 76,77 In the Spanish PREDIMED trial, 78 people
randomly assigned to 30 g of mixed nuts per day as
part of a Mediterranean diet had a 28% reduction in
cardiovascular disease risk. 78 Despite being an energy-
dense food, nut consumption strongly induces satiety
and is associated with no weight gain (or reduced
weight) and reduced risk of obesity in observational
studies and clinical trials. 73 As an alternative to red meat,
for the reference diet we use an intake of 50 g/day of
nuts, which can include peanuts and tree nuts. These
and other plant protein sources are generally
exchangeable, although a mix is desirable nutritionally.
Legumes have reduced concentrations of LDL-
cholesterol and blood pressure in controlled feeding
studies.79 In prospective studies,74,80 consumption of
legumes has been associated with lower risks of coronary
heart disease than has consumption of red meat; however,
the 95% CIs have been wide because legume consumption
was low. Soybeans have a high fat content, which is largely
polyunsaturated, and a high concentration of α-linolenic
acid. High concentrations of phytoestrogens in soy foods
have weak oestrogenic effects, which might block actions
of endogenous oestrogens, and thus reduce risk of breast
cancer and other hormonally-related cancers. In the
Shanghai Women’s Health Study,81 consumption of soy
foods during childhood and early adult life was inversely
associated with risk of premenopausal breast cancer. The Lancet Commissions
12 www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4
Given this association, we included 50 g dry weight per
day of beans, lentils, and peas, and 25 g/day of soy beans
in the reference diet.
Other protein sources such as insects, which are
important in some traditional diets, are being considered
for widespread consumption. These alternatives might
have little effect on the environment, but their long-term
health effects have not been studied. Cyanobacterium (ie,
blue-green algae) has traditionally been consumed in some
cultures and has a high protein content and a similar
amino acid profile to egg.82 In-vitro meat production from
cultured animal stem cells is being developed as an
alternative to traditional meat.83 The health effects of these
new foods are unclear, but nutritional composition of in-
vitro meat is more readily modifiable than that of
conventional meat.
Major carbohydrate sources (grains and tubers)
Grains are the largest source of energy in almost all diets
worldwide. Refining grains causes major loss of nutrients
and fibre, which has important health implications. High
intake of whole grains and fibre from grain sources has
been associated with reduced risk of coronary heart
disease, type 2 diabetes, and overall mortality.84 Few
studies have examined associations between total or
refined grains and health outcomes, but refined grains
are a major source of high-glycaemic carbohydrates,
which have adverse metabolic effects and are associated
with increased risk of metabolic abnormalities, weight
gain, and cardiovascular disease.64,85 In a prospective
international study,86 done mainly in low-income and
middle-income countries, total carbohydrate intake
accounting for more than 60% of energy, was associated
with increased total mortality. In controlled feeding
studies, 37,87 high carbohydrate intake increases blood
triglyceride concentration, reduces HDL cholesterol
concentration, and increases blood pressure, especially
in individuals with insulin resistance. These findings are
of global significance because declining levels of physical
activity and increasing adiposity will raise insulin
resistance and exacerbate these metabolic responses to
carbohydrate intake, and thus increase the risk of
cardiovascular disease and diabetes. 88,89
Potatoes, although containing large concentrations of
potassium and some other vitamins, provide a large
amount of rapidly absorbed carbohydrate, or glycaemic
load. Daily consumption has been associated with
increased risk of type 2 diabetes, 90 hypertension, 91 and
weight gain. 92 Globally, cassava is grown for its resilience
in semi-arid conditions, but when processed into flour,
as is done in Africa, it has low nutritional value and high
glycaemic load, which might increase metabolic abnor-
malities, weight gain, and cardiometabolic disease.
We use major carbohydrate sources to maintain target
energy intake. Evidence does not suggest a specific
proportion of energy intake from carbohydrates, but
keeping this to less than 60% of energy appears desirable,
and consumption of whole grains is emphasised. Thus,
we use 232 g/day of whole grains and 50 g/day of tubers
and starchy vegetables (with a limit of 100 g/day of tubers
and starchy vegetables).
Fruits and vegetables
Fruits and vegetables are an essential source of many
micronutrients, including provitamin A for prevention
of night blindness. Substantial evidence indicates that
fruit and vegetable consumption is also important for
prevention of cardiovascular disease; benefit is mostly
achieved by consuming about five servings per day, 93,94
although higher intakes might provide some benefits.
High intake of vegetables reduces blood pressure 95 and
is associated with reduced risk of type 2 diabetes. 96
Increasing intake of most non-starchy vegetables has
been associated with reduced weight gain in long-term
follow-up of adults in the USA,92 but intakes of potatoes,
corn, and peas were each associated with increased
weight gain. High fruit and vegetable consumption is
weakly associated with reduced cancer incidence after
adjusting for differences in other lifestyle factors such as
smoking and BMI.97,98
We use intakes of 300 g/day of vegetables and
200 g/person per day of fruits, or about five servings of
fruits and vegetables each day. Most benefit from these
foods is probable if a mix is included as suggested.
Added fat: total and specific fatty acids and sources of fats
Added fats from animal sources (eg, ghee, butter, and
lard) or plants (eg, oils, margarines, and shortening) are
used in countless recipes and in cooking of many foods;
they can comprise up to about 30% of total energy in
some diets. Most dietary recommendations suggest
reducing or limiting total fat intake to decrease risks of
coronary disease and cancer. However, evidence from
prospective cohort studies and randomised trials has
not suggested a benefit of reducing total fat intake.99,100
Evidence supports a substantially reduced risk of
cardiovascular disease by replacing saturated fat with
unsaturated vegetable oils, especially those high in
polyunsaturated fats that include omega-3 and omega-6
fatty acids. 99,101–103 Intake of trans isomers from partly
hydrogenated oils is particularly deleterious.104
Although intakes of specific fatty acids have been
studied extensively in relation to risk of heart disease,
edible oils are always a combination of saturated, mono-
unsaturated, and polyunsaturated fatty acids, depending
on the source and processing. Palm and soybean oil
are the most widely consumed oils globally. Compared
with soybean oil, palm oil is low in polyunsaturated fat
(9% vs 60%) and high in saturated fat (52% vs 16%), and is
widely consumed in many low-income and middle-
income countries. Consistent with this fatty acid com-
position, consumption of industrially processed palm oil
raises LDL-cholesterol compared with less saturated plant
oils.105 In a case-control study106 done in Costa Rica, The Lancet Commissions
www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4 13
consumption of industrially processed palm oil was
significantly associated with greater risk of myocardial
infarction than was nonhydrogenated soy bean oil. In
many West African countries and parts of Brazil,
minimally processed red palm oil is an important source
of provitamin A because of its high β-carotene content.
Consumption of red palm oil has not been studied in
relation to risk of heart disease and moderate intake might
be compatible with low rates of heart disease.
In the PREDIMED trial,78 compared with a low-fat diet,
a Mediterranean diet high in extra virgin olive oil reduced
incidence of cardiovascular disease and improved
cognitive function. Rapeseed oil, also called canola oil, is
high in monounsaturated fats and contains a substantial
amount of omega-3 fatty acids. In a randomised trial
among survivors of acute myocardial infarction, a
Mediterranean-type diet high in rapeseed oil greatly
reduced risk of recurrent infarction or death.107 In the
most successful national programme to reduce rates of
coronary heart disease (Finland), rapeseed oil was used to
replace dairy fat.108 Dairy fat has one of the highest
proportions of saturated fatty acids in natural foods. In a
detailed prospective analysis109 among men and women,
when compared isocalorically, dairy fat was associated
with greater risk of coronary heart disease than was
unsaturated plant oils.
Low-fat diets have been widely promoted for weight
loss or prevention of weight gain. Most of the randomised
trials 110 were less than 1 year in duration, which can be
misleading because initial reductions in weight are often
reversed. Furthermore, the intensity of intervention was
not balanced in many trials, 111 which is important because
monitoring intake and social support can lead to modest
reductions in weight independent of dietary com-
position.112 In a meta-analysis113 including more than
50 randomised trials lasting at least 1 year, reductions in
dietary fat were associated with slightly less weight loss
than was the high-fat control diet when intensity of
intervention was similar.
Evidence supports consumption of plant oils low in
saturated fat as an alternative to animal fats; however, no
clear upper limit of consumption exists. Thus, a wide
range is suggested, and we use 50 g/day of total added fat
with a mix emphasising predominately unsaturated
plant oils.
Sugar and other sweeteners
Sugar, like refined starches, has multiple adverse metabolic
effects, and at high intakes might further increase plasma
triglyceride concentrations.114 High intakes of added
sugars, especially sugar-sweetened beverages, have been
associated with weight gain,115,116 type 2 diabetes,117 and
increased cardiovascular mortality.118 WHO recommends
that sugar intake be less than 10% of energy and suggests
that reducing to 5% would provide further benefits; the
American Heart Association suggests approximately 5% of
energy or less. Because sugar has no nutritional value and
adverse metabolic effects, we use a limit of 31 g/person per
day of all sweeteners, or less than 5% of energy.
Special considerations
Young children and adolescents
Global and most regional guidelines recommend that
infants should be exclusively breastfed for the first
6 months of life and continued breastfeeding until at
least age 2 years. Benefits include healthy growth and
expected cognitive development as well as possibly
reduced risk of becoming overweight or obese and
developing non-communicable diseases later in life.119,120
For children aged 12–23 months, whether breastfed or
not, a diet with daily inclusion of at least four of seven
food groups has been recommended. 121
Adolescent girls are at risk of iron deficiency because of
rapid growth combined with menstrual losses. Menstrual
losses have sometimes been a rationale for increased
consumption of red meat, but multivitamin or multi-
mineral preparation provide an alternative that is less
expensive and without adverse consequences of high red
meat intake. WHO suggests extra iron for adolescent girls
by supplementation where the prevalence of anaemia is
high, with extra caution in malaria endemic regions.122
Pregnancy and lactation
During pregnancy and lactation, overall food intake is
important to support organ, muscle, and bone growth, as
well as sustain physiological and metabolic health.
However, excessive protein intake from animal sources
has been associated with an increased risk of obesity
in offspring 20 years later.123 In a systematic review,124
maternal consumption of dairy foods was inconsistently
associated with birthweight or fetal length. Although
inclusion of some animal source foods in maternal diets is
widely considered important for optimal fetal growth and
increased iron requirement, especially during the third
trimester of pregnancy, evidence suggests that balanced
vegetarian diets can support healthy fetal development,
with the caveat that strict vegan diets require supplements
of vitamin B12.125 WHO recommends a healthy diet during
pregnancy defined as adequate energy, protein, vitamins,
and minerals obtained through consumption of various
foods, including green and orange vegetables, meat, fish,
beans, nuts, whole grains, and fruits.126
Summary of evidence describing healthy diets
Evidence from controlled feeding studies with inter-
mediate-risk factors as outcomes, long-term observational
studies relating individual dietary components and
overall dietary patterns to major disease endpoints and
quality of life ,127–129 and randomised clinical trials supports
the conclusion, with a high level of certainty, that dietary
patterns with the following characteristics promote low
risk of major chronic disease and overall wellbeing:
(1) protein sources primarily from plants, including soy
foods, other legumes, and nuts, fish or alternative ERDEGOEED
The Lancet Commissions
14 www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4
sources of omega-3 fatty acids several times per week
with optional modest consumption of poultry and eggs,
and low intakes of red meat, if any, especially processed
meat; (2) fat mostly from unsaturated plant sources, with
low intakes of saturated fats, and no partly hydrogenated
oils; (3) carbohydrates primarily from whole grains with
low intake of refined grains and less than 5% of energy
from sugar; (4) at least five servings of fruits
and vegetables per day, not including potatoes; and
(5) moderate dairy consumption as an option.
These elements of a healthy diet allow great flexibility
because they are compatible with a wide variety of foods,
agricultural systems, cultural traditions, and individual
dietary preferences. These elements can be combined in
various types of omnivore, vegetarian, and vegan diets.
The findings of benefits in many populations for overall
dietary patterns, such as the Mediterranean and healthful
plant-based diets, show that healthy dietary patterns can
be achieved in contemporary populations in many
countries. The intakes in table 1 provide a starting point
for further analyses to evaluate the potential for feeding
the world’s population a healthy diet while remaining
within food production boundaries (panel 2).
Analyses of total diets: nutrient adequacy and mortality
We quantified the healthiness of the reference diet in
two ways: assessment of nutrient adequacy and
prediction of mortality rates. To assess nutrient
adequacy, we first analysed the nutrient composition of
this diet using data primarily from the USA (appendix
p 13). We also paired data on country-specific food
composition and diet (figure 1) to evaluate the effect of
changing to the reference diet on nutrient adequacy. In
this analysis, changing to the reference diet improves
intakes of most nutrients. Consumption of healthy fats
(mono and polyunsaturated fatty acids) increases,
whereas unhealthy fats (saturated fatty acids) decreases.
The adequacy of most micronutrients increases,
including several essentials ones, such as iron, zinc,
folate, and vitamin A, as well as calcium intake in low-
income countries. The only exception is vitamin B12
that is low in animal-based diets. Supplementation
or fortification with vitamin B12 (and possibly with
riboflavin) might be necessary in some circumstances. 131
We analysed potential effects of dietary change on diet-
related disease mortality using three different approaches
(table 3). The first used a global comparative risk
assessment framework with agricultural production and
consumption statistics.131 The risk factors included high
consumption of red meat (including beef, lamb, and
pork), low consumption of fruits, vegetables, legumes,
nuts, and fish, and being underweight, overweight, or
obese. The disease endpoints included coronary heart
disease, stroke, type-2 diabetes, site-specific cancers, and
an aggregate of other diseases. Relative risk factors that
connect changes in dietary risks to changes in disease
mortality in a dose-response manner were adopted from
meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies42,43,66,75,77,94
(appendix pp 12–13). We estimated that adopting the
reference diet could avoid about 11·1 million deaths per
year in 2030 and reduce premature mortality by 19%. 131
Using a conceptually similar approach but different
assumptions and data sources based on dietary surveys
and food expenditure data, the Global Burden of
Disease Collaborators estimated that universal adoption
of a diet similar to the reference diet would prevent
10·9 million deaths per year or 22·4% of adult deaths
(table 3). 132 Reduced intakes of sodium and increased
intakes of whole grains, nuts, vegetables, and fruits,
Figure 1: Diet gap between dietary patterns in 2016 and reference diet intakes of food Data on 2016 intakes are from the Global Burden of Disease database.130 The dotted line represents intakes in reference diet (table 1).
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Nuts
Whole grains
Legumes
Fruit
Vegetables
Fish
Total dairy
Poultry
Eggs
Starchy vegetables
Red meat
2016 dietary intake versus reference dietary intake (%)
Region
Global
East Asia Pacific
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa
Europe and central Asia
North America
Percentage Number Comments
Comparative Risk
Model*
19% 11 100 000 (using Global
Burden of Disease number of
total deaths; 158 regions)
Changes in fruits, vegetables, nuts, and
legumes were main contributors
Global Burden of
Disease Model†
22·4% 10 886 000 (195 countries) Changes in sodium, fruits, vegetables,
whole grains, and nuts were main
contributors
Empirical Disease
Risk‡
23·6% 11 600 000 (190 countries) Estimates based on a 10-variable index of
diet quality
*Dietary factors included high consumption of red meat (including beef, lamb, and pork), low consumption of fruits,
vegetables, legumes, nuts and seeds, fish, and being underweight, overweight, and obese.131 †The Global Burden of
Disease estimates132 are based on an optimal diet similar to the reference diet. Dietary factors included fruits,
vegetables, legumes, whole grains, nuts and seeds, milk, red meat, processed red meat, sugar-sweetened beverages,
fibre, calcium, marine n-fatty acids, polyunsaturated fat, trans fatty acids, sodium. ‡The Alternative Healthy Eating
Index-2010133,134 used in the analysis included vegetables (potatoes not included), fruits, whole grains, sugar-sweetened
beverages and fruit juices, nuts and legumes, red meat, trans fatty acids, marine n-3 fatty acids, polyunsaturated fat,
and sodium (alcohol not included).
Table 3: Estimated avoided premature deaths among adults by global adoption of reference diet The Lancet Commissions
www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4 15
and low sodium intake contributed most to reduced
mortality.
The third approach scored the reference diet and other
diets using the Alternative Healthy Eating Index 2010, 133,134
which has predicted low mortality and disease risks in
many populations.135,136 Low scores are given for high
consumption of trans fat and sugar-sweetened beverages
and high scores for high consumption of polyunsaturated
fat in addition to variables included in the other analyses.
Sex-specific relative risks relating increments in index
scores to total and disease-specific mortality rates were
estimated with two large cohorts with many repeated
assessments of diet (appendix pp 14–15). By applying
these relative risks to dietary data and disease rates for
190 countries, we estimated that adoption of the reference
diet could prevent about 11 600 000 deaths per year or
23·6% of total deaths among adults. Although methods,
assumptions, and input data varied across these three
approaches, they all show major health benefits of
shifting global food consumption toward patterns
consistent with the reference diet.
Section 2: Sustainable food production
Earth system perspective on sustainable food production
The need to develop and use sustainable food production
practices that safeguard Earth system processes, on
which food production and human wellbeing depend,
has become widely recognised. Farming and fishing
practices are being developed that use ecosystem services
such as pest control, pollination, water regulation, and
nutrient cycling to achieve productivity and resilience
in agricultural landscapes, while reducing harmful
environmental effects.137 These practices include many
approaches such as conservation agriculture, sustainable
and ecological intensification, agroecological and
diversified farming systems, precision agriculture, and
organic farming.138–140 Most of these practices focus on
sustainability at the farm scale, including improvement
of soil carbon concentrations, reduction of nutrient
leakage from fields, and enhanced efficiency of water use
by crops. Many practices also take a landscape or
watershed perspective, or both by aiming to improve
management of ecological processes across the whole
landscape in which production is embedded. 137,141 There-
fore, most work on defining environmentally sustainable
food production has been done at field to landscape
levels. This approach is important because visible effects
on agriculture are primarily local and differ worldwide,
with varying soils, hydroclimates, and agroecological
zones. Thus, methods needed to minimise environmental
effects of food production will vary between regions.
In the geological epoch, the Anthropocene,142 pace
and scale of local environmental effects have grown
exponentially since the mid-1950s. Humans have become
dominating drivers of change, and food production is
the largest source of environmental degradation and has
the greatest effect on the Earth system. Despite the
aggregation of global effects caused by the food system,
recognition of the need to adopt an Earth system
approach to sustainable food production is increasing,
which can no longer be defined only in terms of reducing
environmental effects from local farming systems.
Sustainable food production needs to include the role of
food production in regulating the state of ecosystems, the
biosphere, and the Earth system. Therefore, complex
systemic interactions from local to global scales should
be considered and global boundaries identified within
which global food production needs to stay to safeguard
biophysical processes that support a stable Earth system.
This approach widens the perspective of how sustainable
food production is defined at all scales. Increasing
human change to global biogeochemical cycles provides
an example. At the field scale, sustainable food production
can be, and generally is, defined from a nutrient
perspective (nitrogen and phosphorus application) as a
system with no nutrient leakage into local groundwater
and rivers. However, nitrogen and phosphorus form part
of the agricultural harvest and are transported to cities or
markets often far from where they were applied, causing
direct nutrient pollution as food waste or untreated
excreta, or partial downstream pollution after passing
through municipal sewage treatment. A large proportion
of nitrogen and phosphorus contributes to nutrient
loading in aquatic systems, causing eutrophication of
freshwater systems or coastal zones, often far from
where it was originally applied as fertiliser. This process
affects ecosystem resilience, carbon sequestration, and
climate forcing. With increasing human extraction and
loading of nitrogen and phosphorus into the biosphere,
cumulatively interfering with global cycles of nitrogen
and phosphorus in the Anthropocene, an Earth system
perspective on nitrogen and phosphorus is necessary.
Therefore, not only do environmental effects of nitrogen
and phosphorus in farmers’ fields need to be reduced but
also the total amount of reactive nitrogen and phosphorus
being added globally from the atmosphere and mines to
the biosphere.
Increasing evidence shows that food production is the
largest cause of global environmental change, and a
transition to sustainable food production is necessary for
global sustainable development. A universal definition of
sustainable food production should use a system-wide
assessment of environmental effects of a comprehensive
set of parameters at various scales. Greenhouse-gas
emissions, land and water use, nitrogen and phosphorus
application, biodiversity loss, and chemical pollution
from herbicides and pesticides are increasingly assessed
and used in definitions of sustainable food pro-
duction. 143–145 Using a uniform set of parameters when
defining sustainable food production also enables
consistency in meeting sustainability criteria at local
and global scales. A framework that meets these two
criteria—integration of a comprehensive set of system-
wide environmental parameters and scale relevance from The Lancet Commissions
16 www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4
field to planet—is the planetary boundaries frame-
work.2,29,146 Planetary boundaries identify and define the
biophysical safe operating space for environmental
systems and processes that contribute to the stability and
resilience of the Earth system.
We have chosen to use the planetary boundaries
framework as a guide to define scientific targets for
sustainable food production. The planetary boundaries
framework is also useful because the six systems and
processes quantified by this Commission are found within
this framework; we are setting global targets and this
framework relates to Earth system processes at planetary
scales; and this framework has already provided various
countries and sectors with a practical method of
considering multiple anthropogenic, global, and environ-
mental pressures. However, the framework does not cover
interactions between various Earth system processes,
although it was devised with recognition of such dynamics.
Earth system science and social-ecological resilience
research show that system components and processes
exist that regulate the behaviour of the Earth system and
are key for global sustainability (appendix pp 15–16). 147–149
This Commission focuses on these converging strands of
research to identify six systems and processes that are
the main environmental systems and processes affected
by food production: climate change, biodiversity loss,
land-system change, freshwater use, and nitrogen and
phosphorus flows. 2,150 Scientific evidence of their
behaviour in the Earth system enables us to provide
quantified scientific targets. These processes and systems
are being increasingly recognised as necessary param-
eters for a system-wide definition of sustainable food
production. For each of these systems and processes, we
focus on the available science to propose boundaries that
sustainable global food production should stay within to
decrease the risk of irreversible and potentially
catastrophic shifts in the Earth system. These boundaries
conceptually define the upper limit of environmental
effects for food production at the global scale.2,148
Uncertainty in estimates of sustainable food production
The definition of sustainable food production requires
setting planetary boundaries for effects of food production
on the climate system, land systems, freshwater, bio-
diversity, and nutrient cycles of nitrogen and phosphorus.
We present underlying scientific rationale, literature
sources, and assumptions behind each of the boundaries
for our definition of sustainable food production.
However, boundary limits for each process demarcating
the shift to irreversible and deleterious changes in the
Earth system are difficult to set with precision because
of scientific uncertainty, natural variability, and inter-
dependencies of Earth system processes. We use
uncertainty ranges, on the basis of scientific literature
and our judgment of the level of confidence, to reflect
uncertainty that exists in setting global boundaries for
sustainable food production (table 2).
Climate change
Overview
Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases cause
climate change, which leads to disruptions in the Earth
system, such as sea-level rise and increasing frequency of
extreme weather events.151 Systems of food production
release greenhouse gases (eg, carbon dioxide, methane,
and nitrous oxide) into the atmosphere directly and drive
land use change that releases additional carbon dioxide
when forests are cleared, wetlands drained, and soils are
tilled. Food production is a prime source of methane,
and nitrous oxide, which have 56 times and 280 times the
global warming potential (over 20 years) of carbon
dioxide, respectively.151 Methane is produced during
digestion in ruminant livestock, such as cows and sheep,
or during anaerobic decomposition of organic material
in flooded rice paddies. Nitrous oxide mainly arises from
soil microbes in croplands and pastures and is affected
by soil fertility management, such as fertiliser application.
Carbon dioxide is released by agricultural land from
tillage of soils and during burning to clear land of plants,
soil, organic matter, and agricultural residues, and from
burning fossil fuels by farm machinery, for production of
fertilisers, and in transport of agricultural products.
Carbon dioxide is also released when converting natural
ecosystems, especially forests, to agriculture.
Biological processes that produce emissions are
intrinsic to crop and livestock production and some
greenhouse gases will always be generated by biological
processes associated with agriculture. Therefore,
although ambitious targets for reducing emissions of
anthropogenic greenhouse gases should be set,
eliminating all greenhouse-gas emissions (ie, methane
and nitrous oxide) related to food production is not
feasible. We propose a boundary for greenhouse-gas
emissions from food production that is necessary and
difficult to set any lower, at least before 2050, if healthy
diets for the global population and targets of the Paris
Agreement are to be achieved.
A global carbon budget
The Paris Agreement frames political and scientific
consensus to keep the increase of global mean
temperature by 2100 to less than 2°C, and closer to 1·5°C,
relative to 1861–80 temperatures. To stay within this
boundary, a maximum amount of greenhouse gases can
be emitted (ie, carbon budget). This translates to a
remaining budget of total global emissions from 2011
onwards of approximately 800 Gt for carbon dioxide
alone, or 1000 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent for carbon
dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide combined.151
Most scenarios underlying the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration
Pathway (RCP) 2.6 involve overshooting the carbon
budget initially and then compensating, particularly
from 2040 onwards, via large removals of carbon dioxide
from the atmosphere. 152 Various negative emission The Lancet Commissions
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technologies and actions could remove this carbon
dioxide, with the most commonly promoted approaches
being carbon capture and storage, and bioenergy with
carbon capture and storage. However, bioenergy with
carbon capture and storage might compete with land use
for food production and thus have major implications for
food security (appendix p 16–17).
Figure 2 summarises data 28 on probable requirements,
in terms of projections of global greenhouse-gas
emissions, to reach the Paris climate target. For a
66% probability of maintaining less than 2°C global
warming, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil
fuel burning and industrial processes should peak no
later than 2020 and reach about 5 Gt of carbon dioxide
equivalent per year by 2050. Land use, land-use change,
and forestry (LULUCF) emissions, dominated by
emissions from agricultural expansion and land use, will
have to transition by 2050 from a net global source (about
5 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent per year) to a net carbon
sink (–10 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent per year)
by 2100. The method of food production is essential to
whether the Paris Agreement target of less than 2°C is
attainable. Non-carbon dioxide emissions will need to be
reduced, particularly methane and nitrous oxide, in food
production and the world’s food production systems
transformed from net carbon sources to net carbon
sinks. Achieving the Paris Agreement will also require
rapid global decarbonisation of the energy system,
including that used by agriculture.
Status of emissions associated with food production
Estimates of agriculture’s net greenhouse-gas emissions
vary widely depending on which subcategories are
included: emissions of non-carbon dioxide gases
(methane and nitrous oxide) from agricultural production
are estimated to be 5·0–5·8 Gt of carbon dioxide-
equivalent per year;153 carbon dioxide emissions from
conversion of natural ecosystems, especially forests, to
croplands and pastures is estimated to be 2·2–6·6 Gt of
carbon dioxide equivalent per year, 154 and a small amount
from biomass burning of about 0·3 Gt of carbon dioxide
equivalent per year;153 and carbon dioxide emissions from
energy use in agricultural machinery are estimated at
1·0 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.155 The total
estimate of all greenhouse-gas emissions from food
production is 8·5–13·7 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent
per year. Total emissions from food production have
been stable since 1990, growing less than 1% per year,
because increases in production have been offset by
decreasing emissions intensity per unit of product.153,155
Determining the maximum allowed share of the
remaining global carbon budget that might come from
food production is complex, and any scientific target, if all
emission sources are considered equal, will depend on
viability and costs of emission reductions in other sectors.
Therefore, we attempt to estimate the maximum allowable
carbon budget for food production, which is based on an
estimate of the minimum amount of greenhouse-gas
emissions from biological activities associated with
agriculture that we consider are difficult, if not impossible,
to avoid over the next 30 years. We assess the unavoidable
share of greenhouse-gas emissions from food production
until 2050. This excludes all carbon dioxide emissions
from burning of fossil fuels and from land use change,
which we assume have been reduced to zero, and consider
only methane and nitrous oxide associated with biological
processes in crop and livestock production.
We propose that global greenhouse-gas emissions of
methane and nitrous oxide from food production be kept
at or less than 5 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent per year
in 2050. This scientific target represents nearly half of
the allowable global emissions from all sources in 2050,
consistent with the RCP2.6 and a 2°C temperature rise.
This proportion of food production’s share of global
greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050 is thus larger than
today’s share, which accounts for about a quarter of total
global greenhouse-gas emissions.
This scientific target is based on combined projections
of methane and nitrous oxide emissions of 4·7 Gt of
carbon dioxide equivalent per year from food production,
which is derived from three integrated assessment
models:156 IMAGE 4.28, MESSAGE 4.41, and GCAM 5.30
under RCP2.6 reported by Wollenberg and colleagues156
and corroborated for IMAGE by van Vuuren and
colleagues. 157 Integrated assessment models generate
these results by running submodels of climate systems,
socioeconomics, energy use, land use, and other
Figure 2: Projections of global emissions to keep global warming to well below 2°C, aiming for 1·5°C Data are from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fifth assessment report (RCP2.6 data for nitrous oxide and methane) and Rockström and colleagues28 (for fossil-fuel emissions, land use, land-use change, and forestry, and biosphere carbon sinks).
Non-CO 2-related greenhouse-gas
emissions from food production
Agriculture transitions from net source
to net sink of greenhouse-gas emissions
2100
–10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Gt CO
2 -equivalent
2020 2050
Years
CH4 from agriculture
N2 O from agriculture
CO2 from fossil fuel and cement
Land use and land-use change from agriculture
Natural land ecosystem sink
Land-use sink from agriculture
Ocean sink The Lancet Commissions
18 www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4
sub systems, to allocate emission reductions most cost-
effectively across sectors and greenhouse gases. RCP2.6
projects that methane emissions from food production
will decrease gradually throughout the 21st century,
whereas nitrous oxide emissions are expected to plateau
after 2050. 157,158 In addition to methane and nitrous oxide
emissions, biomass burning on agricultural land, which
releases carbon dioxide, is expected to contribute an
additional 0·7 Gt of carbon dioxide in 2050 under
RCP2.6.157,158 Combining these three gases gives a total of
5·4 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. Because of
the uncertainties associated with emission estimates, we
set the boundary as 5 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent per
year with an uncertainty range of 4·7–5·4.
The scientific target for greenhouse-gas emissions
from food production will be achieved on the basis of
two fundamental assumptions. First, zero carbon dioxide
emissions will be associated with land clearance for food
production. If land-use change (eg, deforestation and
other land conversion) for food production is reduced
to zero, then no greenhouse gases will be released from
this source. This goal is ambitious and goes beyond
the RCP2·6 for carbon dioxide emissions associated
with land-use change. Second, zero net emissions will
come from energy use in food supply chains.
Greenhouse-gas emissions from use of fossil fuels in
food production are ascribed to the energy sector, not the
agriculture sector, in the IPCC and other emissions-
accounting frameworks. Analyses also propose a global
transition to clean energy by 2050, bringing emissions
from energy use in all sectors to zero.28
Freshwater use
Overview
Food production is the world’s largest water-consuming
sector. 84% of cropped land uses freshwater from rain,
and the remaining 16% uses irrigation (ie, water in
freshwater lakes, rivers and aquifers).159 70% of all global
water withdrawals are used for irrigation. This share of
water withdrawals for food production varies between
regions, from 21% in Europe to 82% in Africa. Water
consumption for food production has more than doubled
between 1961 and 2000.160
Water is the bloodstream of the biosphere.161 Water
supports all biomass growth and determines the extent
and distribution of biomes and ecosystems. Water drives
nutrient cycles, including flushing and leaching of
nutrients and pollutants (heavy metals and plastics). The
hydrological cycle is associated with climate systems,
including moisture feedback dynamics determining
regional precipitation. 162 However, we focus on the
quantity of water needed to maintain minimum levels of
environmental water flow in watersheds and river basins,
and thus to sustain ecosystem health and benefits that
society receives from these systems.
Environmental flows are the “quantity, quality and
timing of water flows required to sustain freshwater and
estuarine ecosystems and the human livelihoods and
well-being that depend on these ecosystems”.163 These
flows are the result of upstream freshwater partitioning
of rainfall into evaporation or runoff and are affected by
withdrawals of water for irrigation or other uses. For
example, irrigated agriculture upstream requires large
withdrawals of water, which will decrease environmental
water flow in rivers. This reduction in flow can affect
downstream ecological functions that are important for
society, such as drinking water supplies, fisheries,
nutrient retention, and pollution control.
To understand the effects of water withdrawals on
environmental flows, the difference between consumptive
water use and non-consumptive water use should be
recognised. Consumptive water use refers to water that is
removed from a watershed by evapotranspiration (loss of
water from direct evaporation or plant transpiration),
thereby directly reducing environmental water flows.
Non-consumptive water use refers to water use that flows
back to rivers and aquifers after use. Most irrigated water
is for consumptive water use thus making it unavailable
for other uses in the watershed. Only a small proportion
returns directly to watersheds as surface or groundwater
runoff. Up to 75–84% of global consumptive water use
can be attributed to agriculture.160,164
Environmental flow requirements (EFRs) are the
minimum water volume, timing, and quality needed to
maintain environmental function and downstream
benefits. The EFR defines allowable upstream with-
drawals and consumption that sets basin-scale boundaries
for water use that ensures adequate environmental flows
in watersheds. Hydrological dynamics (ie, low-flow and
high-flow values) and the ecological context of individual
watersheds and river basins affect EFR values.165 Therefore,
water is best analysed regionally at the basin level.
The original planetary boundary for water was proposed
as 4000 km³/year on the basis of a global analysis that did
not account for distinct hydro-ecological contexts and
EFRs of individual river basins.146 This boundary did not
include water use by crops in rain-fed agriculture nor
water loss through evaporation from dams.166 Some people
have argued that this boundary is too high and should
be lower.167 Gerten and colleagues168 refined the water
boundary with a global analysis at the scale of river basin
EFRs, quantifying available freshwater withdrawals if EFR
requirements were to be respected. Gerten and colleagues
offer a conservative global freshwater planetary boundary
of 2800 km³/year for all human use including food
production.168 Consumptive water use by all human
activities has been estimated to be 1800–2100 km³/year,
of which food production uses 1400–1800 km³/year.160,164
For setting a global scientific target for consumptive
water use from food production, we have chosen to adopt
the conservative planetary boundary of 2800 km³ year.168
Agriculture’s share of global consumptive water use
is 75–84%. 169 If this quantity is maintained, food
production’s share of the planetary boundary for The Lancet Commissions
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freshwater would be 2100–2352 km³/year. Because food
production is fundamental to human wellbeing and
closing yield gaps in many parts of the world is essential
to feeding the global population, we suggest that the
agriculture sector should be allowed a larger future
allocation of the overall planetary boundary. Setting the
agricultural share of the 2800 km³/year planetary
boundary to 90% by 2050, rather than 75–84%, yields a
global water boundary for food production of about
2500 km³/year. However, because of uncertainty in these
estimates, we have used Gerten and colleagues’168 un-
certainty range of 1100–4500 km³/year. Applying a
90% allocation for food production gives an uncertainty
range rounded to 1000–4000 km³/year.
We believe increasing food production’s share of global
consumptive water use to 90% is feasible because many
technological solutions can limit consumptive water use
in industry and domestic sectors. Wada and colleagues160
found that in high-income countries with advanced
technologies, 20% of consumptive water losses in
industry are due to water withdrawals, whereas in middle-
income countries and low-income countries, water with-
drawals causes 35% and 60% of losses, respectively. This
finding suggests that substantial reductions are possible
through improved use of existing technologies. In food
production, consumptive water use is unavoidable since
plants transpire to grow and water evaporates from soil.
Management practices can reduce evaporative losses
through improved irrigation technologies; however, some
losses will remain unavoidable because of plant growth.
Regional considerations
The global estimate of consumptive water use masks
substantial regional variations, with some regions well
within the boundary and others facing severe water
shortages. Severe water shortages are particularly
common in arid regions that are chronically short of
water and where basin scale EFRs are overtaken by
irrigation (appendix p 17). Water use is an issue at the
regional and river-basin level and local and regional
boundaries need to be set depending on their specific
EFRs. The global boundary we propose is an aggregate of
water use by region. In addition to using EFRs, Gleick
and Palaniappan170 propose using peak non-renewable
water and peak ecological water, whereby total costs of
ecological disruptions from water use exceed the total
value provided by humans, as indicators of freshwater
withdrawal and use.
Assuming an ideal trade scenario, integrity of water
basins could be maintained through trade. Basins with
surplus water could deliver water to basins in deficit by
trading water-intensive food products. This would
require unimpeded food trade and all countries to
possess sufficient foreign currency to purchase food.
However, in the current political climate, high pressure
exists towards enhancing food sovereignty (or self-
reliance) through local food production. This pressure
places large demands on water resources, especially in
arid and semi-arid developing countries. Low-income
nations that are unable to trade because of political or
economic reasons are most at risk.
Nitrogen and phosphorus flows
Overview
Nitrogen and phosphorus are nutrient elements, vital to
the structure and metabolism of living organisms on
land and in oceans. Nitrogen and phosphorus are crucial
for plant growth, but their natural availability limits plant
growth in most terrestrial ecosystems. Supply of nitrogen
and phosphorus fertilisers to croplands is essential for
maximising crop yields and will continue to be necessary
for feeding a growing global population.171
Production, application, and trade of fertilisers disrupts
global nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. Excessive appli-
cation of nitrogen and phosphorus in food production
has substantial consequences, notably in runoff into
streams and rivers, driving eutrophication of freshwater
and marine ecosystems and subsequent development of
hypoxic (oxygen-free) conditions causing fish dieback
and other environmental harm.17 Although mostly driven
by excessive application of fertiliser in food production,
human sewage is also an important source. Atmospheric
nitrogen deposition, usually carried by rain, snow, or fog
to the Earth’s surface, is a third important contaminant
source, particularly in countries with high nitrogen
oxides (ie, nitrogen oxide and nitrogen dioxide) and
ammonia emissions. 172
In addition to eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems,
nitrogen application in agriculture can have several
other environmental and health effects, including eutro-
phication of terrestrial ecosystems, reducing their
biodiversity and altering ecosystem functions; 173,174 acidi-
fication of water and soils by ammonia emissions; 175
nitrous oxide emissions, which is a potent greenhouse
gas; 176 groundwater contamination by nitrates, which
negatively affects human health; 177 and creation by
ammonia of fine atmospheric particulate matter and
its harm to human health. 178 Agricultural nitrogen
also drives nitrogen oxides emissions, which are a
major source of particulate and ozone pollution 179 and
contribute to reduced crop yields. 180
Nitrogen fertiliser is created using the Haber-Bosch
industrial process to convert plentiful non-reactive
nitrogen gas to ammonia. This process is highly energy
intensive and associated with high levels of greenhouse-
gas emissions. Conversely, phosphorus fertiliser is a
non-renewable resource that is mined from a finite
number of phosphate rock deposits. At existing and
projected rates of exploitation, these deposits are
estimated to run out within 50–100 years.181
Nitrogen and phosphorus for people and planet
A major challenge for humanity is to harmonise the
maximum allowed nitrogen and phosphorus loading into The Lancet Commissions
20 www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4
the biosphere to maintain a stable Earth system, with the
necessary amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus required
to feed the global population.182 Estimates of human needs
show that feeding about 10 billion people by 2050 on
existing cropland will require higher annual global
applications of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilisers183 that
exceed the planetary boundaries for nitrogen (62–82 Tg
per year) and phosphorus (6·2–11·2 Tg per year). However,
this Earth system approach increases opportunities to
feed humanity if practices are adopted in which more food
is produced per unit of nitrogen or phosphorus input, loss
of nutrients is reduced to a minimum, and nutrients are
recycled, not only on farmers’ fields, but also at system
level (eg, in the rural–urban interface). Experience shows
that ample opportunities exist to reduce environmental
effects of food production by eliminating nutrient overuse
and run-off into aquatic systems, while still allowing
increased food production.184
Closing nutrient loops and using nitrogen and
phosphorus efficiently is one opportunity for increasing
food production without releasing more reactive nitrogen
and phosphorus into the biosphere. This strategy
includes applying the right type and quantity of fertiliser,
at the right time, and in the right place. The strategy also
involves efforts to recover nutrients (ie, recycling) in
usable forms from places in the food system where they
concentrate, such as sewage treatment plants, food
processing plants, compost operations, and livestock
production facilities. Adopting a closed loop system in
global food production recycles nitrogen and phosphorus
within food systems, keeping it out of the biosphere, and
decreasing environmental effects. Improved nutrient use
and re-use efficiency can permit increased global
application of nitrogen and phosphorus to close yield
gaps (ie, the difference between attainable and actual
yields) while reducing total global need for synthesis of
new nitrogen and phosphorus fertilisers.
Another opportunity arises from redistribution of
nitrogen and phosphorus use to close yield gaps. On a
global scale, application of nitrogen and phosphorus
fertiliser is highly unevenly distributed, ranging from
nitrogen and phosphorus inputs insufficient to close
yield gaps to excessive surplus application in many
developed and rapidly growing economies.185 Many
developed nations apply nitrogen in excess, with rates of
nitrogen application exceeding those needed to obtain
yields. By contrast, many developing countries have yields
that are only a half to a quarter of those that could be
obtained with appropriately increased and well-timed
applications of fertiliser.184,185
Nitrogen fluxes (ie, net movement of nitrogen) to air
and water react directly to increases in nitrogen input
because nitrogen does not accumulate in soils. Therefore,
increases in nitrogen added to croplands increases
expected nitrogen losses due to leaching and runoff into
aquatic systems, volatilisation to air, and crop removal,
which accounts for most nitrogen that leaves the soil
system. This direct link between inputs and losses
formed the basis of the anthropogenic nitrogen input
calculation by De Vries and colleagues,183 which is the
amount of nitrogen that can be applied (from fixation by
legumes and fertiliser) globally for food production
without causing eutrophication. The essential input of
nitrogen (ie, nitrogen application) is a fraction of the
existing global nitrogen input, which currently exceeds
planetary boundaries.
The nitrogen boundary for global food production is
derived by muliplying estimated global application and
biological fixation with mean fractions varying between
0·50 and 0·67 of global nitrogen application. These mean
fractions relate to the percentage of reductions in global
nitrogen application necessary to keep nitrogen
concentrations in runoff within safe limits of 1–2·5 mg of
nitrogen per L.183 Total global application of nitrogen is
estimated to be about 130 Tg per year.183 Multiplying 130 Tg
of nitrogen per year by 0·50 and 0·67 gives 65–87 Tg of
nitrogen per year, with the proposed global application
boundary of nitrogen for food production set at 90 Tg of
nitrogen per year and an uncertainty range of 65–90. This
application boundary is slightly higher than that proposed
by Steffen and colleagues2 who used a total global nitrogen
application of 121·5 Tg per year, which might be based on
an underestimation of fertiliser use.
The proposed nitrogen boundary from food production
might still be an underestimate because it is based on
global patterns of nitrogen use, which includes overuse
in some areas and underuse in others. In deficit areas,
additional nitrogen input to increase crop yield is
possible without negatively affecting the environment.
Additionally, the nitrogen boundary does not consider
efficiency gains through closing nitrogen loops. If global
redistribution of nitrogen and closing nitrogen loops are
considered, a higher global use of nitrogen than 90 Tg
per year might be possible without exceeding the
boundary for food production. We therefore include an
upper uncertainty range of 90–130 Tg of nitrogen per
year that considers an increase in use of nitrogen
fertiliser184 if nitrogen is globally redistributed and
nitrogen loops are closed. This upper value of 130 Tg of
nitrogen per year is a human needs estimate for nitrogen
that might be required to feed a global population of
about 10 billion people.
The planetary boundary of 6·2 Tg of phosphorus per
year (uncertainty range 6·2–11·2), originally proposed by
Carpenter and Bennett186 and adopted by Steffen and
colleagues2 was a regional level, short-term boundary to
avert widespread eutrophication in regional watersheds.
This boundary was applied primarily to global croplands
because most phosphorus addition to watersheds is from
fertiliser use. This boundary is based on the total global
flow of phosphorus in erodible soil to freshwater systems
minus weathering rates. However, this approach assumes
that soil erosion is the main source of phosphorus to
freshwater systems. Phosphorus that is removed from iversity
The Lancet Commissions
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fields by crops, consumed by animals and humans, and
excreted as manure and human waste and ending up as
phosphorus inputs to freshwater systems are excluded.
This exclusion might drive overestimation of the long-
term global phosphorus boundary of sustained flow of
11 Tg of phosphorus per year (uncertainty range 11–100)
from freshwater systems into the ocean.
De Vries and colleagues183 developed a global phosphorus-
flow model for food production that considers some
criticisms of the original approach used by Carpenter and
Bennett186 but did not consider other fluxes, such as
weathering rates. In this model, the external, acceptable,
global input of phosphorus from food production to the
biosphere is determined by long-term (thousands of years)
acceptable accumulation of phosphorus in soil and
sediments and inputs to surface water (oceans) from
runoff and leaching that increases phosphorus concen-
tration to a threshold for eutrophication. Phosphorus
uptake and excretion by humans to freshwater systems
(stored in sediments) and recycling of human waste to
soils (stored in soils) affects this boundary. This boundary
assumes full phosphorus recycling from animal manure.
Using this approach and assuming no recycling of human
waste gives a long-term global input of phosphorus from
food production of about 6–12 Tg of phosphorus per year.
This new estimate is similar to the Carpenter and Bennett186
input range. We therefore propose the global long-term
boundary of phosphorus application from food production
to be 8 Tg of phosphorus per year (uncertainty range 6–12).
This phosphorus boundary might be underestimated
because the effect of improving efficiency of phosphorus
use through closing phosphorus loops by recycling and
reducing point source loads is not considered. This
boundary also does not consider global redistribution
of phosphorus use from regions that overapply phos-
phorus fertiliser to those that underapply. This
redistribution is important because, unlike nitrogen,
phosphorus is adsorbed onto soil and can accumulate and
be stored in stocks of soil phosphorus. Increasing organic
matter and stored carbon in soils increases the capacity of
soils to store phosphorus. Phosphorus leaching and runoff
to surface waters occurs when phosphorus stocks in soils
are saturated and phosphorus input from fertiliser is
greater than the quantity of phosphorus removed during
cultivation and harvest. When soils are deficient in
phosphorus (ie, stocks are not saturated), additional inputs
of phosphorus are possible and will increase yields with
minimal environmental harm. Together, these consider-
ations effectively increase the phosphorus boundary.
Global stocks of phosphorus are deficient in some
areas and saturated in others. To increase crop yields,
global phosphorus stocks should be saturated globally,
and phosphorus application should maintain saturation
by replacing phosphorus that is removed during
cultivation and harvest. This process would close yield
gaps, which is necessary for feeding about 10 billion
people by 2050. We estimate that this target can be met
through short-term time-bound (over a few years) global
phosphorus application of 16 Tg per year, targeting soils
with phosphorus deficit. Therefore, we propose an upper
input of 8–16 Tg of phosphorus per year, while main-
taining a boundary of 8 Tg per year, which can be achieved
by recycling 50% of human waste and reapplying recycled
phosphorus to croplands. 187 This approach will increase
in importance as the global population increases by more
than 2 billion people by 2050.
Biodiversity loss
Overview
The diversity and richness of all living organisms on
land and in water is necessary for the stability of eco-
systems, 188,189 and productivity and resilience of food
production systems. This functional value of biodiversity
is often poorly understood and hugely undervalued. 190,191
Biodiversity enhances ecosystem services necessary for
human wellbeing, including food production, polli-
nation, pest control, heat regulation, carbon sinks, and
moisture feedback for rainfall. Nutritional quality,
protective attributes, and flavours of most plant foods is
a function of evolutionary interactions between species
(panel 4). 192
Panel 4: Agricultural biodiversity
Agricultural biodiversity, or agrobiodiversity, is important to human wellbeing and is directly associated with dietary health. Agrobiodiversity, often referred to as crop diversity, includes cultivated and uncultivated species that comprise foods we eat or support food production. Cultivated agrobiodiversity encompasses species intentionally planted or reared by farmers. This diversity originates from tens of thousands of years of farmer selection producing various edible species suited to many social and environmental contexts.
Non-edible agricultural biodiversity includes a myriad of species, from soil microbiomes, to insects, birds, and mammals that pollinate crops, regulate pests, absorb excess nutrients from fields, and store carbon in soils. Benefits provided by this biodiversity are called agroecosystem services. Production practices such as agroforestry, riparian buffers, wild field margins, or conservation tillage help to conserve biodiversity in fields, and these services are managed and secured31 for food production.
Because plants are non-mobile, they have evolved numerous chemical adaptations for protection against predators and diseases—sweet rewards to animals who disperse their seeds (eg, fruits and berries) or providing their offspring with large energy stores for germination and growth (eg, seeds and nuts). These adaptions are the source of the diverse nutritional values of plant foods. Consuming a diversity of fresh fruits and vegetables, whole grains, seeds, and nuts is an important part of a healthy diet, benefiting from this evolutionary history and resultant diversity.32
However, of more than 14 000 edible plant species, only 150–200 are used by humans with only three (rice, maize, and wheat) contributing 60% of the calories consumed by humans.32,33 Many underused plant species have excellent nutritional profiles, as well as traits of interest for adapting food production to climate change (ie, quinoa, millet, sorghum, or teff for grains, or zapote, chaya, or chenapodes for fruits and legumes). These qualities are especially important considering the increasing risk that climate change will pose on crop yields and the nutritional content of foods. However, food system
simplification drives loss of these plant species and varieties, reducing options that support healthy diets from sustainable food systems. The Lancet Commissions
22 www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4
We have entered the sixth mass species extinction on
Earth, losing species at a rate 100–1000 times greater than
Holocene rates.193–195 This loss is measured through rates
of species extinction,194,195 local changes in community
composition, declines in population abundance,194 and
reduced biodiversity intactness.150 This species extinction
is an increasing threat to the Earth system188,189 and global
food security and has the potential to fundamentally
undermine our ability to sustainably feed the global
population by 2050.
Food production as a driver of biodiversity loss
Multiple human actions contribute to biodiversity loss.
Terrestrial and aquatic habitat loss, habitat fragmentation,
climate change, chemical pollution, invasive species, and
unsustainable harvest of wild species have been identified
as primary drivers.190,196 However, habitat loss and frag-
mentation, particularly through human appropriation of
land for food production, is the greatest driver of
biodiversity loss.190,197 Based on the International Union for
Conservation of Nature classification of bird and mammal
extinction risks, 80% of extinction threats to mammal and
bird species are due to agriculture (appendix p 17).
Current extinction rates198 and population declines194 are
higher than those in the Holocene of about one extinction
per million species per year. The number of species that
can become extinct while maintaining the ability to feed
humanity remains unknown, but each additional species
lost represents a fundamental reduction in resilience
and capacity to respond to environmental change.199 A
precursor to extinction is the reduction of species’
population sizes and local extinctions. Insect biomass has
reduced by 75%200 in 30 years and farmland birds by 30%
in 15 years; this decline has occurred long before global
extinctions but has severely affected biodiversity’s capacity
to support food production, gene flow, and other
ecosystem services.
A background extinction rate of one extinction per
million species per year across many taxa has been
proposed as a benchmark against which to assess effects
of human actions.195 A high degree of uncertainty exists
about the rate of extinctions that the Earth system can
tolerate, which is distinct from, and less conservative
than, intrinsic biodiversity value benchmarks that argue
for zero species loss. This uncertainty therefore justifies
high uncertainty and our proposed scientific target of
less than ten extinctions per million species per year,
which is within one order of magnitude greater than the
background extinction rate and the same target suggested
by Steffen and colleagues.2 However, because the rate or
types of biodiversity loss that could trigger irreversible
changes to the Earth system are unknown, the boundary
from food production should be set at a rate of loss
no greater than the historical background rate. There-
fore, we suggest an uncertainty of 1–80 extinctions per
million species per year, with the lower value (ie, 1) being
equal to the background extinction rate and the upper
value (ie, 80) being agriculture’s share of effect on species
decline—ie, 80% of the upper value of the uncertainty
range (100 extinctions per million species per year)
proposed by Steffen and colleagues. 2
Although extinction per million species per year is a
logical metric for measuring biodiversity loss, several
caveats are important to recognise. First, extinction per
million species per year is typically measured on
geological timescales rather than on ecological time
scales of global environmental conventions, including
the Convention on Biological Diversity. However, early
indications of global extinctions are becoming observable
in ecological timescales and is cause for concern
requiring urgent action. Second, regional reductions in
species populations194 and local extinctions are a precursor
to global extinction and better measured with a regional
metric, such as biodiversity intactness index, than a
logical metric. Third, not all species have the same
measurable effect on Earth system processes, and thus
species loss might not capture the extent to which an
individual species lost affects global processes. 201 Despite
these limitations, models based on well documented
species area relationships have been used to extrapolate
the extent to which anticipated land conversion could
contribute to species loss.202,203 Therefore, we maintain
extinction per million species per year as the appropriate
metric for measuring global biodiversity loss from food
production.
Land-system change
Overview
Globally, the net area for food production has remained
constant since the mid-20th century. However, this trend
masks the real picture because substantial reductions in
agricultural land have occurred in temperate regions of
Europe, Russia, and North America, whereas substantial
expansion of agricultural land has occurred in bio-
diversity-rich tropics. Food production is the largest driver
of land use and land-use change, mainly through clearing
of forests and burning of biomass. Between 2000 and
2014, Brazil lost on average 2·7 million ha/year of forest,
the Democratic Republic of Congo lost 0·57 million ha/year
with a 2·5 factor increase since 2011, and Indonesia lost
1·3 million ha/year, with 40% occurring in primary
forest.204 This land-system change is a major contributor
to biodiversity loss and greenhouse-gas emissions and
undermines other Earth system processes.
The challenge of land use is to safeguard essential
terrestrial and marine biomes that regulate the state of
the planet and provide ecological functions that support
food production. About 51% of the global land surface
can be classified as intact ecosystems with a biodiversity
intactness index greater than 90.150,205 The biodiversity
intactness index provides a measure of the intactness of
local communities within a region relative to their
original state. However, intact ecosystems vary globally
with highly intact biomes in boreal and tundra biomes.205 The Lancet Commissions
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Of this 51%, approximately 15% of global land area has
legal protection status and can be classified as natural
habitats, which are home to unique species. Many of
these species are severely threatened and require large
intact areas with little to no human intervention. The
Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi Target 11 has
set a global target to protect 17% of terrestrial and inland
water areas, with a focus on legal protection of key
biodiversity areas206 and hotspots.207
The remaining 36% of intact ecosystems do not have
legal protection status but maintain high values of
biodiversity intactness.205 The most threatened biomes are
those with greatest agricultural value, including
grassland, dry tropical forest, and temperate forest
biomes. By contrast, biomes that have low values of
biodiversity intactness for food production are well
conserved and protected, notably high latitude tundra and
boreal forest biomes. The combination of intact biome
areas (>50%) and biodiversity intactness (>90 biodiversity
intactness index) provide a set of metrics that highlight
the extent to which progress should be made to protect
global biodiversity (figure 3). Because biodiversity is local
and non-tradable, these targets should be set at the
ecoregion level thus ensuring an even distribution of
conservation efforts globally.
Most of the remaining land surface is dedicated to
croplands and grazing lands (ie, rangelands and pasture-
lands), which occupy about 40% of ice-free terrestrial
landmass. Jointly, these agricultural systems are the
world’s largest ecosystems and, in addition to food
production, they provide other important services, such
as habitat for biodiversity and carbon sinks. Of this 40%,
grazing lands occupy about 23% of land surface and are
important for biodiversity conservation and carbon
sequestration. Grazing lands might also be particularly
important in restoration strategies in formerly grassland
biomes or reforestation in formerly forest biomes, both
of which are important carbon sequestration strategies.
However, reforestation is constrained by land availability
and therefore reforestation of degraded pastures and
rangelands in original forest biomes offers an opportunity
to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere while
providing additional benefits of biodiversity conser-
vation. 208 Conversion of the remaining rangelands and
pasturelands should be treated with caution because the
opportunity cost resulting from biodiversity loss and
carbon dioxide emissions is high.
We use minimum forest cover, biodiversity intactness
index, and area-based intactness for key biomes as guides
for setting the scientific target for land use from food
production.2 Since agriculture is the largest driver of
deforestation and land-use globally, to achieve the Paris
Agreement and reduce biodiversity loss, agricultural
expansion into forest areas and other natural ecosystems
should be stopped. Therefore, global land use from
food production should be kept at or below 13 M km²
(11–15 M km²).
Half Earth strategy
Proposals suggest that we can halt biodiversity loss and
conserve at least 80% of preindustrial species richness
by protecting the remaining 50% of Earth as intact
ecosystems.205,209 Quantitative boundary estimates for
land-system change and biodiversity loss proposed by
this Commission can thus be translated to (globally) zero
future land conversion of natural ecosystems into
farmland (ie, to implement a Half Earth strategy). This
strategy complies with the biome or regional boundary
proposed by Steffen and colleagues2 of maintaining a
biodiversity intactness index of 90% (figure 3).
Implementing a Half Earth strategy by biome would
have multiple co-benefits, such as maintaining functional
diversity in ecosystems, reducing greenhouse-gas
emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land use,
and stimulating afforestation or reforestation efforts,
which are important for helping to meet the Paris
Agreement. Half Earth can be achieved through legal
protection or land uses compatible with biodiversity such
as sustainable harvest of native forests, indigenous areas,
or low-intensity grazing systems in grassland ecosystems,
or other land uses that maintain a biodiversity intactness
index of less than 90.
Staying within the biodiversity boundary for food
production also depends on fine-scale conservation efforts
within agricultural landscapes. Most of biodiversity loss
is driven by habitat fragmentation and agricultural
Figure 3: Association between area-based intactness of ecosystems and the species composition-based biodiversity intactness index to measure current biome status with regard to area-based and species-based conservation targets
The size of the circles reflects the extent (ie, area) of the biome. The dashed lines represent area-based (x axis) and species-based (y axis) targets. Area-based intactness and Half Earth target (50%) was proposed by Wilson209 and Dinerstein and colleagues.205 The species composition-based biodiversity intactness index was proposed by Steffen and colleagues,2 representing functional biodiversity, and analysed globally by Newbold and colleagues.150 Four biomes (green shaded area) have a biodiversity intactness index greater than 90 and an area-based intactness of more than 50%; one biome, temperate grasslands, is below 50% area-based intactness and 90 species-based intactness index. Four biomes fall below area-based and species-based targets if the biodiversity intactness index threshold is 80%. The remaining biomes fall below one, but not both area or species composition-based targets. For descriptions of each biome see the appendix (pp 18–19).
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Biodiversity intactness index
Intact ecosystems (% area)
Tundra
Boreal forests
Moist tropical forests
Dry tropical forests
Mangroves
Desert
Montane grasslands
Temperate grasslands
Tropical
grasslands luction
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intensification, including loss of fallows, buffer systems,
and embedded conservation structures in agriculture.
Integrating a minimum of 10% of ecologically conserved
land at fine scales (<1 km²) into agricultural systems
enables habitat connectivity, which is essential for species
survival, and access to the services biodiversity provides to
support food production. In addition, alteration of
ecosystems due to climate change causes less biodiversity
loss than does land use change. Ensuring that species can
adapt to the pace of climate change requires conservation
of habitat and connectivity.210
Scientific targets and strategic directions for sustainable
food production
Table 2 provides scientific targets for the planetary
boundaries for food production presented in this
Commission. These global scientific targets provide an
integrated definition of sustainable food production, which
can be translated to science-based targets for different
scales (regions and nations) and sectors. Furthermore,
scientific targets for sustainable food production can be
translated to strategic directions including: (1) decarbonise
the food value chain from production to consumption—ie,
zero fossil fuels by 2050 and maintain greenhouse-gas
emissions at or less than 5 Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent
per year for methane and nitrous oxide associated with
food production; (2) radical improvement in efficiency of
systems-scale (including rural and urban) nutrient use and
recycling of nitrogen and phosphorus; (3) urgent move
towards zero loss of biodiversity; (4) feed humanity on
existing agricultural land—ie, transition to zero expansion
of new agricultural land at the expense of natural
ecosystems; (5) integrate 10% of ecological conservation
into existing agricultural landscapes and regenerate and
reforest degraded land; (6) adopt a Half Earth strategy for
biodiversity conservation by protecting 50% of Earth as
intact ecosystems; (7) reduce food loss and waste by 50% to
decrease pressure on food demand; and (8) transform to
sustainable intensification of food production and adopt
sustainable practices for soil, water, nutrients, and
chemicals thus revolutionising agriculture.
Section 3: Achieving healthy diets from
sustainable food systems
Introduction
Devising a sustainable food system that can deliver healthy
diets for a growing population presents formidable
challenges (see Section 4). Finding solutions to these
challenges requires understanding of the environmental
effects of multiple variables. We apply a global food system
modelling framework to analyse what combinations of
readily implementable measures (table 4) are needed to
stay within food production boundaries (table 2) while still
delivering healthy diets (table 1) by 2050. The aim is to find
a set of actions within scientific targets set by this
Commission for human health and environmental
sustainability.
Environmental effects of foods
Methodological inconsistencies and data gaps make it
difficult to distinguish and compare, with a high certainty,
the precise environmental footprints of individual food
products. Most existing food and diet studies assessing
environmental impacts consider only greenhouse-gas
emissions and recent reviews of the literature show a lack
of integrated analysis and an under-representation of
some of the core environmental impact dimensions of
food systems. Particularly biodiversity, animal welfare,
nutrient leaching, and the use of chemicals are generally
missing from food footprint studies. However, results
from a large and growing body of literature points towards
a very likely clear hierarchy of impacts among larger food
categories. For instance, Clune and colleagues216 present
greenhouse-gas emissions of different food categories
from life-cycle assessment studies and show that grains,
fruits, and vegetables have the lowest environmental
effects per serving, and meat from ruminants the highest
effects per serving. Other studies217 have assessed the
environmental effects of water use. Overall, studies
concur that plant-based foods cause fewer adverse
environmental effects per unit weight, per serving, per
unit of energy, or per protein weight than does animal
source foods across various environmental indicators
Assumptions
Dietary shift Reference (table 1); vegetarian: meat-based protein sources replaced by a mix of plant-based proteins and fruits and vegetables (eggs and dairy consumed); vegan: all animal-based protein sources replaced by a mix of plant-based proteins and fruits and vegetables (no eggs and dairy consumed); pescatarian: meat-based protein sources replaced by a mix of seafood and fruits and vegetables (eggs and dairy consumed)
Improved production
practice (PROD)
Standard level of ambition for improved food production practices including closing of yield gaps between attained and attainable yields to about 75%;184,211 rebalancing nitrogen and phosphorus fertiliser application between over and under-applying regions;184 improving water management, including increasing basin efficiency, storage capacity, and better utilisation of rainwater;211 and implementation of agricultural mitigation options that are economic at the projected social cost of carbon in 2050,212 including changes in irrigation, cropping and fertilisation that reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions for rice and other crops, as well as changes in manure management, feed conversion, and feed additives that reduce enteric fermentation in livestock213
Improved production
practice (PROD+)
High level of ambition for improved food production practices on top of PROD scenario, including additional increases in agricultural yields that close yield gaps to 90%;184 a 30% increase in nitrogen use efficiency,214 and 50% recycling rates of phosphorus;215 phase-out of first-generation biofuels, and implementation of all available bottom-up options for mitigating food-related greenhouse-gas emissions213
Reduced food waste
and loss (halve waste)
Food losses and waste reduced by half, in line with Sustainable Development Goals target 12.3
Table 4: Measures considered for reducing environmental effects of food production << —-l__ssstts 5
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(figure 4). Seafood is a particularly diverse food category
and environmental effects can differ substantially
between captured and farmed fish and shellfish, and
within certain subgroups (eg, farmed salmon vs farmed
freshwater fish such as carp, and farmed shrimps vs
farmed mussels.
Environmental effects of foods can be measured with
various units, including per kcal, per g protein, or per
serving, depending on the nutritional contribution of each
food.4 Using a universal indicator to measure environ-
mental effect can be misleading for some foods. For
example, vegetables contain few calories per serving and
thus using kcal to measure their environmental effect
would indicate that some vegetables have high environ-
mental footprints whereas, from a per serving basis, their
environmental effects are low. Given this ambiguity,
environmental effects are shown per serving in figure 4.
Environmental effects of overall dietary patterns
Many studies have assessed environmental effects of
various diets, with most finding decreasing effects with
increased replacement of animal source foods with plant-
based foods.5,6,218–220 Vegan and vegetarian diets were
associated with the greatest reductions in greenhouse-gas
emissions and land use,5,221 and vegetarian diets with the
greatest reductions in water use.219 Diets that replaced
ruminants with other alternatives, such as fish, poultry,
and pork, also show reduced environmental effects, but to
a smaller extent than plant-based alternatives.220 These
studies show a diet including more plant-based foods than
animal source foods would confer environmental benefits
and improved health (Section 2). By contrast, agricultural
studies140,184,222 have investigated potential changes in
technologies and management that could decrease
environmental effects—eg, increasing yields of existing
croplands and improving water and fertiliser management.
Scenarios for achieving healthy diets from sustainable
food systems
To analyse environmental effects of various measures on
each boundary of food production, we use a global food
systems model with country-level detail that converts
consumption patterns, such as the healthy reference diet,
into associated requirements of food production (table 4).
The model considers existing and future projections of
food demand, trade, requirements of livestock feed,
processing of oilseeds and sugar crops, and non-food
demands for agricultural products by industry. A full
description of the model is provided in the appendix
(pp 19–23) and by Springmann and colleagues. 187 Here
we extend the analysis by considering a broad set of
dietary scenarios and sensitivity analyses.
To assess the environmental effects of food
consumption, we paired the model’s projections for food
consumption for 2050 with country-level environmental
footprints that we obtained from various sources
(appendix p 24).211,223–225 Our results show that animal
source foods have large environmental footprints per
serving for greenhouse-gas emissions, cropland use,
water use, and nitrogen and phosphorus application,
which supports study findings.32 Total environmental
effects are determined by combining region-specific
environmental footprints per unit of food with estimates
of food demand.
Future demand of food in this model is affected by
changes in population size and income (ie, GDP).
Figure 4: Environmental effects per serving of food produced
Bars are mean (SD).5,216 Some results are missing for fish due to lack of data for some impact categories (eg, land use stemming from plant-based feeds in aquaculture). This was, however, accounted for in the global food systems modeling framework used in Section 3. CO2=carbon dioxide. Eq=equivalent. PO4=phosphate. SO2=sulphur dioxide.
Ruminant meat (28 g)
Pork (28 g)
Chicken (28 g)
Fish (28 g)
Dairy (1 cup)
Eggs (1 egg)
Sugar (4 g)
Oils (14 g)
Nuts (28 g)
Roots (1 cup)
Soybeans (28 g dry)
Legumes (28 g dry)
Vegetables (1 cup)
Fruits (1 cup)
Cereals (28 g dry)
Serving of food
0 1200 800 400
Greenhouse gases
(g CO2-eq/serving)
0 6 4 2
Land use
(m2/serving)
0 1500 1000 500
Energy use
(kj/serving)
Environmental effect
0 15 10 5
Acidification potential
(g SO2-eq/serving)
0 6 4 2
Eutrophication potential
(g PO 4-eq/serving)
Plant-based foods Fish Dairy and eggs Meat Food group ased on
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Population size changes the absolute quantity of food
produced and income affects the types of foods produced.
With increasing income, consumption of animal source
foods, such as meat and dairy, and fruits and vegetables is
expected to increase.226 Our baseline (business-as-usual)
projections follow a moderate socioeconomic develop-
ment pathway (appendix p 1), whereby global population
is projected to grow by a third and income is projected to
triple.211 For the business-as-usual scenario, we project
that food production could increase greenhouse-gas
emissions, cropland use, freshwater use, and nitrogen
and phosphorus application by 50–90% from 2010 to
2050 in absence of dedicated mitigation measures.187 This
increase would push key biophysical processes that
regulate the state of the Earth system beyond the
boundaries and safe operating space for food production
(figure 5). Different food groups affect the environment
to different extents: animal source foods are responsible
for about three-quarters of climate change effects,
whereas staple crops, such as wheat, rice, and other
cereals, are responsible for a third to a half of pressures
on other environmental domains.
Several measures reduce environmental effects of food
production. For our analysis, we grouped these measures
into three categories: dietary changes towards healthy
diets, technological and management-related changes in
food production, and reductions in food loss and waste
that involve technical changes (related to food loss
during production) and behavioural changes (related to
food waste at the point of consumption). The measures
we considered (table 4) have been proposed in research
literature and some have been declared as global or
national goals (eg, reductions in food loss and waste). 27
We focused on measures that are feasible with existing
technologies but have not been widely implemented.
Our analysis shows that to stay within the safe operating
space for food systems, a combination of dietary changes
and production and management-related measures are
required (figure 6). Although implementation of some
measures are sufficient to stay within particular
boundaries, no single intervention is enough to stay
within all boundaries simultaneously.
Climate change
Several studies have analysed measures to reduce
greenhouse-gas emissions associated with food
production. Although food production practices have an
important role,213,220,227 many studies highlight that a
dietary change towards increased adoption of plant-based
diets has high mitigation potential, which is probably
needed to limit global warming to a less than 2°C
increase.5,6,228 Improved production practices to reduce
greenhouse-gas emissions include changes in irrigation,
cropping, and fertilisation, which can reduce methane
and nitrous oxide emissions from rice and other crops, as
well as changes in manure management, feed conversion,
and feed additives, which can reduce enteric fermentation
in livestock.213 We estimated that changes in food
production practices could reduce agricultural
greenhouse-gas emissions in 2050 by about 10%, whereas
increased consumption of plant-based diets could reduce
emissions by up to 80%.187 A further 5% reduction could
be achieved by halving food loss and waste.
Staying within the boundary for climate change can be
achieved by consuming plant-based diets. Improved
production practices are less effective than a shift to
healthy diets in abating food-related greenhouse-gas
emissions because most emissions are associated with
production of animal source foods whose characteristics,
such as enteric fermentation in ruminants, have little
potential for change. Increasing shift toward more plant-
based diets will enable food production to stay within the
climate change boundary.
Land-system change
Future land-use changes depend greatly on agricultural
yields (ie, the output of food production per area) and
the composition of crops that are demanded and
produced,140,144,184,226 which in turn are influenced by dietary
choices and changes in technologies and crop manage-
ment. It has been estimated that current yield trends are
insufficient to meet global demand for wheat, maize, rice,
and soybean if trends continue towards diets that are high
in animal source foods.229 Currently, almost two thirds of
all soybeans, maize, barley, and about a third of all grains
are used as feed for animals, so reductions in the portion
Figure 5: Environmental effects in 2010 and 2050 by food groups on various Earth systems based on business-as-usual projections for consumption and production
2010
Food groups
2050
2010
2050
2010
2050
2010
2050
2010
2050
Greenhouse gas
emissions
Cropland use
Freshwater
use
Nitrogen application
Phosphorus application
0 50 100 150 200 250
Food systems
Environmental effect (percentage of boundaries)
Staples Legumes Nuts and seeds Fruits and vegetables Vegetable oils
Sugar Other crops Animal products TRUE
ENNILE:
LL LE M Le
FERE SEE
CRE 4 ER de
LORIE |
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of animal products in our diets would make the cropland
associated with feed production available for other uses.144
However, whether changing dietary preferences would
result in a net decrease in the use of cropland depends
also on the yields of the replacing crops, and those
Differences in yield might not be as favourable as one
might expect, considering that investments in high-
yielding varieties have been primarily directed towards
major grains over the last half century.230,231 Our dietary
scenarios include large amounts of nutritionally important
but lower yielding crops, such as legumes and nuts.144
Our results indeed portray a complex picture. 187 The
impacts of dietary changes resulted in small reductions
in cropland use of 0–2%. The reason that we did not
observe greater reductions from dietary change alone
was that the reductions in cropland demand by countries
with high portions of animal source foods were
compensated by increases in cropland demand by
countries that consume poor quality diets high in grains.
By food group, the reductions in cropland use for feed
crops was, to a large extent, compensated by large
increases in cropland use for legumes and nuts which
are relatively low-yielding. Redirecting investments
towards higher-yielding varieties of those crops could be
an effective strategy for reducing cropland use in the
context of changes towards healthier diets which contain
larger amounts of legumes and nuts. Our estimates of
projected yield trends, and of changes in food loss and
Figure 6: Various scenarios demonstrating the environmental effects of implementing measures considered for reducing environmental effects of food production
Colours indicate whether environmental effects transgress food production boundaries. Red cells indicate above upper range value. Orange cells indicate above boundary but below upper range value. Light green cells indicate below or equal to boundary but above lower range value. Scenarios increase in ambition from 1 to 6, with 1 being low and 6 being high. Gt CO2-eq/yr=Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. OPTM=optimisation managed habitat. E/MSY=extinctions per million species-years. MAN=managed or secondary habitat. OPTN=optimisation natural habitat. NAT=natural habitat. BAU=business as usual. PROD=improved production practice. PROD+=improved production practice+.
Greenhouse-gas
emissions
(Gt CO2-eq/yr)
Cropland use
(M km2)
Water use
(M km 3)
Nitrogen
application (Tg)
Phosphorus
application
(Tg)
OPTM
biodiversity
loss (E/MSY)
MAN
biodiversity
loss (E/MSY)
OPTN
biodiversity
loss (E/MSY)
NAT
biodiversity
loss (E/MSY)
Food production boundary 5·0 (4·7–5·4) 13 (11·0–15·0) 2·5 (1·0–4·0) 90 (65·0–140·0) 8 (6·0–16·0) 10 (1–80) 10 (1–80) 10 (1–80) 10 (1–80)
Baseline in 2010 5·2 12·6 1·8 131·8 17·9 100 100 100 100
Production
(2050)
Waste
(2050)
Diet
(2050)
·· ·· ·· ·· ·· ·· ·· ·· ··
BAU full waste BAU 9·8 21·1 3·0 199·5 27·5 2 36 153 1067
BAU full waste reference 5·0 21·1 3·0 191·4 25·5 2 45 120 1309
BAU full waste pescatarian 3·2 20·6 3·0 189·7 25·3 2 46 118 1313
BAU full waste vegetarian 3·2 20·8 3·1 186·9 24·7 2 48 122 1374
BAU full waste vegan 2·1 20·7 3·3 184·1 24·4 2 50 128 1431
BAU halve waste BAU 9·2 18·2 2·6 171·0 23·2 1 24 105 716
BAU halve waste reference 4·5 18·1 2·6 162·6 21·2 2 32 81 940
BAU halve waste pescatarian 2·7 17·6 2·6 160·0 20·8 2 33 78 940
BAU halve waste vegetarian 2·7 17·8 2·7 158·5 20·5 2 35 83 1000
BAU halve waste vegan 1·7 17·7 2·8 155·0 20·0 2 36 90 1051
PROD full waste BAU 8·9 14·8 2·2 187·3 25·5 1 7 68 237
PROD full waste reference 4·5 14·8 2·2 179·5 24·1 1 14 54 414
PROD full waste pescatarian 2·9 14·6 2·2 178·2 24·0 1 15 54 426
PROD full waste vegetarian 2·9 14·6 2·2 175·5 23·6 1 15 56 462
PROD full waste vegan 2·0 14·4 2·3 172·8 23·4 1 17 59 507
PROD halve waste BAU 8·3 12·7 1·9 160·1 21·5 0 3 41 103
PROD halve waste reference 4·1 12·7 1·9 151·7 20·0 1 9 33 270
PROD halve waste pescatarian 2·5 12·4 1·9 149·3 19·8 1 9 34 281
PROD halve waste vegetarian 2·5 12·5 1·9 148·0 19·5 1 10 36 317
PROD halve waste vegan 1·6 12·3 2·0 144·6 19·2 1 12 40 358
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
PROD+ full waste BAU 8·7 13·1 2·2 147·6 16·5 1 10 61 292
PROD+ full waste reference 4·4 12·8 2·1 140·8 15·4 1 14 47 414
PROD+ full waste pescatarian 2·8 12·4 2·2 139·3 15·3 1 15 46 424
PROD+ full waste vegetarian 2·8 12·5 2·2 136·6 14·8 1 16 47 456
PROD+ full waste vegan 1·9 12·3 2·3 133·5 14·4 1 17 49 494
PROD+ halve waste BAU 8·1 11·3 1·9 128·2 14·2 0 7 38 196
PROD+ halve waste reference 4·0 11·0 1·9 121·3 13·1 0 10 28 290
PROD+ halve waste pescatarian 2·4 10·6 1·9 118·8 12·9 0 10 27 298
PROD+ halve waste vegetarian 2·4 10·7 1·9 117·6 12·6 0 11 29 330
PROD+ halve waste vegan 1·5 10·5 2·0 113·9 12·1 0 12 33 366 change
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waste are more straight-forward. Based on data on yield
trends and potential yield improvements across regions,
we estimated that no cropland expansion will be needed
if current yield gaps (ie, the difference between current
and attainable yields) were closed to about 75% and food
loss and waste was halved. Adopting even more
ambitious levels of production improvements in
combination with dietary shifts and reductions in food
loss and waste would result in a net contraction of
cropland use (panel 5).
Freshwater use
Previous studies have highlighted the potential of
increasing water-use efficiency by improving water
management and technologies, such as irrigation
systems,232 as well as by dietary change towards diets
lower in animal products. 233 Using data from basin-scale
hydrological models, 211 we estimated that improved
production practices could reduce water use by
about 30%, and halving food loss and waste could reduce
water use by about 13%. 187 For dietary changes, we
identified similar trade-offs as for cropland use, water
use could increase by 1–9% as reductions related to lower
consumption of animal products and sugar are
overcompensated by increases related to greater
consumption of nuts and legumes. The lower end of the
reductions is for the more plant-based scenarios that
include larger amounts of water-intensive nuts and
legumes.
According to our estimates, staying within the planetary
boundary for water use can be achieved by combining
improvements in water-use efficiency with reductions in
food loss and waste. However, our analysis does not
highlight regions or nations that currently face water
shortage and are already above regional or national
boundaries for EFRs. This is discussed in more detail in
chapter 3 and the appendix (p 17).
Nitrogen and phosphorus application
The reduction of effects related to the overapplication of
nitrogen and phosphorus fertilisers is receiving increasing
interest. The discussed measures include technology-
driven increases in use efficiencies,234 improvements in
management of livestock and manure,235–237 improvements
in fertiliser application and distribution,184,232,237 reductions
in household waste,236 nutrient recycling (eg, through
improvements in sewage systems),214 and dietary changes
towards diets with few animal products.236 In our analysis,
we represented various mitigation strategies by increases
in use efficiencies, improvements in fertiliser application
and distribution, and dietary changes.187 We estimated that
increased use efficiencies and optimised application of
fertilisers, including recycling of phosphorus and
rebalancing between regions that overapply fertiliser and
those that underapply could reduce nitrogen use by
about 26% and phosphorus use up to 40%. Reductions in
food loss and waste could reduce use of each nutrient by
up to 15%, and dietary change towards healthy diets could
reduce total application needs by about 10%. Staying
below the upper ranges for nitrogen and phosphorus
required the most ambitious improvements in food
production practices, dietary shifts, and reductions in food
loss and waste. The challenge of staying below the
boundaries for nitrogen and phosphorus highlights the
need to identify further ways to control their use.
Biodiversity
Studies have investigated the effect of increasing
agricultural expansion on biodiversity loss, especially in
tropical countries where biodiversity is highest. 16,190,197
Biodiversity loss is most severe when natural habitat (eg,
primary tropical forest) is converted to agricultural land,
especially when compared with conversion of secondary
or degraded habitats: our results support this finding
(figure 6).
We found that cropland use and extinction rates were
synergistic, with greatest reductions occurring with
Panel 5: The future of food in the face of climate change
Most studies investigating the effect of climate change on food production indicate an aggregate reduction in future agricultural productivity, particularly in low-latitude regions.36–39 Knox and colleagues36 project an 8% reduction in mean yield of all crops by 2050 across Africa and south Asia. For major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) in tropical and temperate regions, local temperature increases of 2°C or more without adaptation will negatively affect production. However, substantial variability exists between regions, crops, and adaptation scenarios. About 10% of projections for 2030–49 show more than 10% increase in food production, whereas about 10% of projections show more than 25% decrease,37 with risks of more severe effects increasing after 2050.
Climate change will also affect fisheries and aquaculture.40–42 Increased productivity is estimated at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low and mid latitudes, with considerable regional variation. For example, poleward migration of fish alone has been estimated to reduce maximum catch potential in some tropical areas by up to 40%.44 However, deviation from current yields rarely exceeds 10%.44
The effects of climate change on agriculture are expected to substantially impact human health. Reductions in agricultural production due to climate change have been estimated to cause 500 000 climate-related deaths in 2050, most of which are due to reduced fruit and vegetable production and consumption, followed by increases in underweight from reduced availability of food.45 In addition, nutritional quality of food and fodder is predicted to decrease because of elevated carbon dioxide concentrations.37 For example, grains and legumes contain lower concentrations of iron and zinc when grown at elevated carbon dioxide concentrations that are predicted for mid-century than do grains and legumes grown at current carbon dioxide concentrations.46 At elevated carbon dioxide concentrations, protein and amino acid concentrations decrease in spring wheat (a major staple crop), whereas non-structural carbohydrates (except starch) and lipids significantly increases.47
Crop diversity might be a solution to decreasing yields and nutritional quality caused by climate change. A report by the Food and Agriculture Organization places crop diversity at the forefront of adaptation solutions.48 New and improved crop varieties are needed that can withstand challenges that climate change will pose to global food security.
Developing crop varieties that can withstand heat, drought, flood, and other extreme weather events might be the most important step to adapt to climate change. wa
wa
wa
wW
wa
wa
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improved production practices and reductions in food
loss and waste. Projected extinctions in our analysis
show high spatial variation, with many extinctions
projected to occur in tropical countries and island
countries with high richness of endemic species.
Projected future extinction rates exceed extinction rates
of the past century195 if cropland expansion occurs at the
cost of existing primary habitat.
Extinction risk can be reduced through various
measures. First, expanding cropland into existing
secondary habitat (eg, logged forests and plantations) or
other managed ecosystems (eg, pastures and rangelands)
reduces the number of species lost by more than 90%.
Second, adopting technologies and management-related
changes reduces cropland expansion and has the
greatest potential of reducing global biodiversity loss
(about 75% relative to business-as-usual scenario).
Third, halving food loss and waste can reduce projected
biodiversity loss by up to 33% relative to the business-as-
usual scenario and has a smaller potential than other
measures (ie, dietary shifts and improved production
practices) to benefit biodiversity.
We found that adopting the reference diet (or one of
its variations) could increase the global number of
extinctions if land-use change occurs in areas of food
production. This effect is mainly a result of increased
caloric intake to 2500 kcal/capita per day in the reference
diet in countries where caloric intake is lower than this
value, and shifting production priorities to produce crops
(eg, nuts and pulses) needed to support the reference
diet. However, these results assume that domestic
production will meet a proportion of the additional
demand. Rebalancing regional production on the basis of
biodiversity concerns could mitigate those additional
stresses and have the greatest effect on reducing
biodiversity loss (figure 6).144,206 Results from all of our
optimisation scenarios can be found in the appendix
(p 25). In addition, biodiversity data that integrates the
impact of expansion into managed habitat and land
optimisation into a single set of data can be found in the
appendix (p 26).
Staying below the upper range for biodiversity required
the most ambitious improvements in food production
practices, dietary shifts, and reductions in food loss and
waste and getting near the boundary only happened in
the most ambitious scenarios. The challenge of staying
below the biodiversity boundary highlights the need to
implement additional measures. These include
establishment of new protected areas,238 expansion and
increased enforcement of protected areas in key bio-
diversity areas,238 increasing international trade from high
yielding nations with low biodiversity to low yielding
nations with high biodiversity,16,202,203 and minimising
agricultural expansion into species rich areas.
Sensitivity analysis
We did a series of sensitivity analyses to identify
additional dietary aspects of importance for staying
within boundaries for food production. For that purpose,
we varied the composition of the reference diet by
changing its meat and dairy content and assessed the
importance of scale effects by considering a scenario of
low caloric intake (figure 7). Increasing the limit on red
meat intake from one 100 g serving per week to three
servings (the limit put forward by the World Cancer
Research Fund for lowering cancer-related risks of red
meat consumption) 239 increased food-related green
house-gas emissions by nearly 50% and also increased
other environmental effects compared with the same
scenarios found in figure 6. Increasing milk con-
sumption from 250 g/day in the reference diet to
500 g/day (a level less than dietary guidelines in the
USA) increased greenhouse-gas emissions and total
environmental effects. Neither scenario could be
Figure 7: Environmental effects of increased meat (ref high meat) and milk (ref high milk) consumption above those described by the reference diet and reduced caloric intake to 2100 kcal/day (ref low cal)
Colours indicate whether environmental effects transgress food production boundaries. Red cells indicate above upper range value. Orange cells indicate above boundary but below upper range value. Light green cells indicate below or equal to boundary but above lower range value. Dark green cells indicate below lower range value. Gt CO2-eq/yr=Gt of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. OPTM=optimisation managed habitat. E/MSY=extinctions per million species-years. MAN=managed or secondary habitat. OPTN=optimisation natural habitat. NAT=natural habitat. BAU=business as usual. PROD=improved production practice. PROD+=improved production practice +.
BAU halve waste ref high meat 6·7 18·7 2·8 168·9 23·0 2 36 108 1029
PROD halve waste ref high meat 6·0 13·0 2·0 158·7 21·4 1 9 41 268
PROD+ halve waste ref high meat 5·9 11·5 2·0 127·0 14·2 0 15 37 403
BAU halve waste ref low cal 4·3 16·1 2·3 147·2 19·0 1 22 81 647
PROD halve waste ref low cal 3·3 11·4 1·6 137·3 18·1 1 8 33 246
PROD+ halve waste ref low cal 3·8 9·7 1·6 109·3 11·6 0 5 28 170
BAU halve waste ref high milk 6·7 18·8 2·6 171·3 22·7 2 34 109 983
PROD halve waste ref high milk 6·0 13·3 1·9 161·4 21·4 1 10 43 299
PROD+ halve waste ref high milk 5·8 11·4 1·9 130·0 14·3 1 11 39 309
Greenhouse-gas
emissions
(Gt CO2-eq/yr)
Cropland use
(M km2)
Water use
(M km 3)
Nitrogen
application (Tg)
Phosphorus
application
(Tg)
OPTM
biodiversity
loss (E/MSY)
MAN
biodiversity
loss (E/MSY)
OPTN
biodiversity
loss (E/MSY)
NAT
biodiversity
loss (E/MSY)
Food production boundary 5·0 (4·7–5·4) 13 (11·0–15·0) 2·5 (1·0–4·0) 90 (65·0–140·0) 8 (6·0–16·0) 10 (1–80) 10 (1–80) 10 (1–80) 10 (1–80)
Production
(2050)
Waste
(2050)
Diet
(2050)
·· ·· ·· ·· ·· ·· ·· ·· ·· al diets
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combined with improvements in production practices to
become a feasible combination that would stay within
the boundaries for food production. By contrast,
reducing caloric intake from 2500 kcal/day to
2100 kcal/day, an intake assuming that BMI is reduced
to 22 kg/m² globally, which complies with WHO
recommendations on healthy bodyweight and physical
activity levels, 240 slightly reduced environmental effects
when compared with the same scenarios in figure 6.
Global use of the reference diet would have important
implications for food production (figure 8). By contrast
with the business-as-usual model, production of grains
would change minimally from 2010, and production of
beef, pork, and lamb would decrease. Production of
sugar, milk, poultry, and eggs would change minimally,
and production of fruits, vegetables, legumes, nuts,
soybeans, oil crops, and fish would increase substantially
(panel 6). These changes contradict projections
widely used by international organisations that have
emphasised large increases in grain production to feed
an increased population of animals. 241 According to our
analysis, these projections would substantially exceed
food production boundaries and highlight the urgency
for using scientific targets to guide transformation of
the food system.
Uncertainty in modelling results
We have a higher level of certainty in the overall direction
and approximate magnitude of the relationships presented
in figure 6 than we do about specific quantitative details.
For example, we can be certain about the trend of
decreasing rates of biodiversity loss with dietary changes
and improved production practices. However, we are less
certain about the exact number of species that will be lost
in each scenario and dietary change. This is also the case
for other control variables: we are less certain about exact
numbers resulting from each scenario but have higher
certainty in the trends of decreasing environmental effect
with improvements in production practices, reduction in
food loss and waste, and shifts towards healthy diets.
We did not investigate the role of innovative tech-
nologies that are not yet proven at scale but might
become operational in the future because of the paucity
Figure 8: Predicted change in production from 2010 to 2050 for the business-as-usual with full waste scenario and the healthy reference diet with full or half waste scenarios
Wheat Maize Rice
Other grains
Roots
Vegetables Starchy fruits
Temperate fruits Tropical fruits
Legumes Soybeans
Nuts or seeds
Oil crops Palm crops Sugar crops
Beef Lamb Pork Milk Eggs
Fish or seafood
Poultry
–150
–100
–50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Change (%)
Food group
Business-as-usual with full waste
Healthy reference diet with full waste
Healthy reference diet with half waste
Scenario
Panel 6: The role of seafood in global diets
Seafood provides 3·1 billion people with about 20% of their daily intake of animal protein and is particularly important for the world’s poorest for whom fish eaten whole constitute a crucial source of essential micro nutrients.55,56 With 90% of global wild fish stocks being overfished or fished at capacity, seafood extraction potential from the wild has probably reached a ceiling56 or is declining.57 Future expansion of seafood should come from aquaculture, which is one of the fastest growing food production sectors in the world. However, such rapid development can also have negative environmental and social effects including habitat destruction, overfishing for feed ingredients, and social displacement.58
Aquaculture production is projected to increase from 60 million tons in 2010 to 100 Mt in 2030,59 and up to 140 Mt by 2050.60 Key constraints include competition for feed resources58 and available land for freshwater farming. Research in sustainable aquaculture feeds is rapidly developing; however, development and implementation still remains in its infancy.61 Farmed non-feed dependent animal species (ie, mussels and oysters) might be a more sustainable alternative than farmed feed-dependent species and account for 31% of global aquaculture production.56 However, future development might be hampered by deteriorating water quality due to pollution and ocean acidification.
The future environmental footprint of seafood depends on the species farmed, what they eat, and where aquaculture takes place. Aquaculture will not solve the challenges posed by feeding about 10 billion people healthy diets but could help steer production of animal source proteins towards reduced environmental effects and enhanced health benefits. :action
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of data available on the environmental effects of those
technologies. Some examples of potential innovative
techniques include using insects, algae, and microbes as
human or animal feed, 19 and laboratory-cultured meat. 242
In this Commission, we chose to focus on solutions that
are readily available but might not have been
implemented at scale.
Section 4: Framework for a Great Food
Transformation
Lessons from past successful global transformations
This Commission does not underestimate the importance
of its message or the urgency of the task it sets, which are
in line with international reviews4,243–253 of different aspects
of global food systems over the past decade. The
Commission highlights the need for a Great Food
Transformation—ie, a substantial change in the structure
and function of the global food system so that it operates
with different core processes and feedback. This
transformation will not happen unless there is wide-
spread, multi-sector, multi-level action to change what
food is eaten, how it is produced, and its effects on the
environment and health, while providing healthy diets for
the global population.
Solutions to the problems highlighted by the
Commission will require hard work, political will, and
many resources. People might warn of unintended
consequences or argue the case for action is premature
or should be left to existing dynamics; however, we
disagree. Data are sufficient and strong enough to
warrant action, and delay will increase the likelihood of
serious, even disastrous, consequences. The approaches
taken in the Great Food Transformation should be guided
by scientific targets that define the safe operating space
Location Problem Timing Action Multilevel intervention Success?
Food supply Global 1920s and 1930s food system
exhibited major problems of
hunger, inequality,
environmental damage, and
political upheaval
The US Dust Bowl;259,260
recession-led hunger and famine,
exacerbated by war (eg, Soviet
Union 1932–33; Bengal, India;
UK 1936) 261–264
Hot Springs Conference 1943 began
the mapping, food and Agriculture
Organization of the UN created in
1945, and widespread food welfare
programmes implemented (eg, in
schools)265
Policy pressure from health,
agriculture and social
research combined with
political will across
ideological divides to build
action at the global, national,
and local (farm, citizen, and
school) level
A transformation of
world food supply
followed, but it came at
the cost subsequently
noted as threats to
ecosystems and the
growth of new
diet-related ill health
HIV/AIDS Global Approximately 70 million people
affected since outbreak:
35 million deaths from HIV, and
36·7 million living with
HIV/AIDS 266
Almost certainly first emerged in
the 1940s, and identified with
male-to-male sex in the USA in
1970s
Virus identified in 1983;
antiretroviral therapy developed
(19·5 million people vaccinated in
2016); prevention of mother-child
transmission; and facilities for
testing and counselling
established 266
Sound data and research,
mass education
programmes, peer-to-peer
learning, pharmaceutical
development, and finance
support
Containment is
possible; no eradication
yet; more success in
affluent countries with
infrastructural support
Tobacco
controls
Global Causal link between smoking
tobacco and premature death
from preventable disease
Causal link between smoking
tobacco and lung cancer shown
in 1952
Years of action lead to WHO
Framework on Tobacco Control, a
treaty adopted at 56th World Health
Assembly, May 2003—the first WHO
treaty adopted under article 19 of
the WHO constitution
Decades of research showing
link between smoking and
disease, patient organisation
neutralising opposition,
a mix of fiscal and
educational programmes,
and a mix of actions from
global to individual 267
Clear evidence for
action plus wide
support for controls but
the product is still
legally available and
widely used
Trans fatty
acids in the
food supply
Global Industrially produced trans fatty
acids (trans fats) contribute to
premature death from heart
disease of 500 000 people
annually268
First noted in 1950s,269 with
1970s research meeting strong
resistance from vested interests,
solid research from the 1980s
showed the health effect of trans
fats270
2015 decision by US Food and Drug
Administration to ban trans fats;
2018 call by WHO for global
elimination; and restrictions or bans
in Denmark, Switzerland, Canada,
Britain, and USA
Public health concerns are
beyond doubt, WHO
endorses a REPLACE strategy,
and food industries recognise
alternatives
The movement to
remove or reduce trans
fats, or both, is
accelerating worldwide
Energy shift Global Fossil fuels are a source of
greenhouse-gas emissions, and
were noted as potential
disruptors of the carbon cycle
Oil becomes major fuel source in
mid 19th century; the
assumption that oceans would
absorb excess carbon was
questioned in late 1950s
Alternative energy research and
development; public awareness;
scientific monitoring of climate
change (eg, Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change) 271
Research data, technology
development, rise of
renewable energy, cheaper
alternatives, and a mix of
mass and localised actions
and interventions
Fossil fuel use still high
but rise of renewables
now considered a major
and growing feature of
energy provision272
Effect of
fertiliser use
on water
quality
Global Indiscriminate use by farmers;
high cost; environmental effects
(eg, run-off)273
Concerns about the effect of
nitrogen run-off on various
outcomes ranging from blue
baby syndrome, to biodiversity
loss and water pollution
A systemic approach was adopted by
the EU in the 1991 Nitrate Directive
and 2000 Water Framework
Directive
These reduced nitrogen fertiliser use
by 19% in 1990–2010 274
Inefficient use, cost savings,
strong regulatory framework,
public pressures, and water
companies working with
farmers to prevent overuse
Fertiliser use is rising
again in the EU but
dropping in some
countries, leading to
pressure to target use
more efficiently275
EU=European Union.
Table 5: Reasons to be cheerful: examples of systems change and systemic action ystems
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for food systems: the combination of healthy diets and
planetary systems and processes, which underpin human
health and environmental sustainability.
Humanity has never aimed to change the food system
so radically at this scale or speed. In the 20th century,
major transformations have occurred in the national
food system in countries such as China, Brazil, Vietnam,
and Finland, 254–256 and lessons can be learnt from these
transformations. The world’s diet can change rapidly. In
the past few decades, countries have changed diets and
gone through a nutrition transition. The health effects of
some of these transitions, such as increased consumption
of sugar, are beginning to show.257
Wars and disasters cause food insecurity and highlight
the issues faced when nutrition is inadequate and food
becomes scarce. Wars and natural disasters also provide
opportunities from which the food system can be
transformed. However, only at the end of World War 2 was
a global effort and commitment introduced to redirect the
food system.258 New institutions were created or revised at
the global level such as WHO, the Food and Agriculture
Organization, and World Bank, which allied with new and
renewed national Ministries of agriculture and health to
stop pre-war food problems caused by market distortions,
environmentally-damaging farming, and social in-
equalities.259 However, the negative consequences of the
post-war food revolution are now becoming increasingly
clear (ie, negative environmental and health consequences,
as outlined in this Commission).
Our evidence offers the ability to anticipate events and
shape better outcomes. Table 5 lists some examples of
when science has informed or led global transformations.
However, these transformations are not as extensive as is
required by the Great Food Transformation, but optimism
and lessons can be derived. The first lesson from past
global transformations is that no single actor or
breakthrough is likely to catalyse systems change. Systems
change is extensive and will therefore require engagement
of actors at all scales and in all sectors working towards a
shared set of goals. This lesson is fundamental to
Sustainable Development Goal 17, which recognises that “A
successful sustainable development agenda requires
partnerships between governments, the private sector and
civil society. These inclusive partnerships built upon
principles and values, a shared vision, and shared goals that
place people and the planet at the centre, are needed at the
global, regional, national and local level.”
Second, scientific research is essential to change the
global food system. The gap between evidence of problems
with the food system and policy leverage to induce change
should be acknowledged. However, modelling suggests
the goal of providing healthy diets for the global population
from sustainable food systems can be met, and 10 billion
people could be fed a healthy and sustainable diet. The
present unhealthy, unequal, unsustainable food system
can be transformed into an improved system.
Interdisciplinary research and monitoring will be essential
in this process, not least to maintain the scale and pace of
change. Although long-term research is important, short-
term research is urgently needed to help policy actors to
operate on a strong evidence base.
Third, the full range of policy levers is likely to be
needed (table 6). 277 Faced with challenges, policy makers
might initially implement soft policy interventions, such
Description Indicative government role Indicative industry role Indicative civil society role
Eliminate
choice
Channel actions only to the
desired end and isolate
inappropriate actions
Set goals for a zero or negative-effect food system Withdraw inappropriate products; diversify the business
Win public support for elimination
of unhealthy diets
Restrict choice Remove inappropriate choice
options
Model choice editing or rationing on a population
scale
Allocate funding to favour sustainable and
healthy products
Campaign for banning and pariah
status of key products and processes
Guide choices
through
disincentives
Apply taxes or charges Develop multicriteria interventions, building on
existing developments such as carbon and sugar
taxation, and scoping others such as marketing
controls, carbon-calorie connections
Use of contracts and conditions to shape supply
chains
Disinvestment campaigns
Guide choices
through
incentives
Use regulations or financial
incentives
Interagency, cross-government engagement with
the consuming public
Consumer reward schemes Build cultural appeal for healthy
diets from sustainable food
systems
Guide choice by
changing
default policy
Provide better options Recognise the problem but not give it high priority Already being pioneered by retailers in their own-label products, and by in food service actors
through menu planning, reformulation
Legislative change campaigns
Enable choice Enable individuals to change
behaviour
The market economics position, currently manifest
via logos and branding appeals
Focused marketing on only healthy and
sustainably produced foods
Campaign for alternative products
Provide
information
Inform or educate the public Mass, public information campaigns Prioritisation of brands which appeal to eat differently,
Led by NGOs, brands and some
commercial interests
Do nothing No action or only monitor
situation
The all-too common baseline of inactivity, which
can be maintained by vested interest support
Rely on public relations or media advisers to alert
as to coming difficulties
Ignore the wider picture and stick
to narrow spheres of interest
Interventions are hard to soft from top to bottom.276 NGO=Non-governmental organisation.
Table 6: Applying the Nuffield Ladder of Policy Intervention to Health Diets from Sustainable Food Systems The Lancet Commissions
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as consumer advice, information, education, or, in the
case of food, labelling. These interventions assume that
consumer actions will generate sufficient change278 and
are slow in effect unless mass public interest in change
exists. However, the scale of change to the food system
is unlikely to be successful if left to the individual or
the whim of consumer choice. This change requires
reframing at the population and systemic level. By
contrast, hard policy interventions include laws, fiscal
measures, subsidies and penalties, trade reconfiguration,
and other economic and structural measures. These
interventions alter conditions in which the whole
population exists. The type of interventions adopted is
the prerogative of governments, people, and processes.
However, countries and authorities should not restrict
themselves to narrow measures or soft interventions. Too
often policy remains at the soft end of the policy ladder.
The policy terrain indicated by this Commission is
broad. Some people argue that focusing on a few
achievable targets is the best strategy. However, a shared,
planetary overview requires a parallel, extensive, policy
umbrella. Our vision, with scientific targets for healthy
diets and sustainable food production, integrates food,
health, and environmental policy into many policy areas,
including trade, economics, rural livelihoods, equity,
culture, society, and community. This inclusion is a
strength, not a diffusion of effort. For the food system to
change and for healthy diets to be available to all requires
not only food production or consumption to change, but
also active involvement of sectors in the middle of the
food chain, such as food processing, storage, logistics,
retail, and food service. These sectors need to be engaged
in the transformation, not least because these inter-
mediary sectors have economic power and cultural
influence in food systems.279,280 The Commission therefore
calls for more work on these stages of global food systems.
Five strategies for a Great Food Transformation
In addition to the lessons learnt from past global
transformations, we established five readily implemen-
table strategies and recommendations for how a
sustainable food system transformation could be
achieved. For each strategy, the evidence base is strong,
and our modelling and analysis shows the potential
effectiveness of these strategies for the achievement of a
sustainable food system transformation. The strategies
are proposals to begin processes. This Section does not
provide an exhaustive nor prescriptive list of actions.
Rather, these strategies are presented as indicative entry
points for further context-specific national, regional, city,
and local change.
Strategy one: seek international and national commitment to
shift towards healthy diets
Concerted commitment from national and international
bodies can be achieved by, first, improving the availability
and access to healthy diets from sustainable food systems.
Retailers and food services shape the immediate
environment in which people buy food. In high-income
societies, a priority is to offer less than what is currently
offered by reducing portions, choice, and packaging, as
well as introduce new, innovative packaging to preserve
perishable foods. Whereas, low-income countries should
increase the range and seasonality of foods by cutting
waste on or near primary production, improving logistics
and storage, and increasing the range and seasonality
of foods. In high-income and low-income societies, stan-
dards of public and private sector procurement should be
guided by the need to improve diets and access to outlets
or vendors providing healthy products. Local authorities
need powers to apply zoning regulations in low-income
areas to restrict unhealthy food outlets.281 Contracts and
procurement policies can be used to promote healthy diets
from sustainable food systems in workplaces, schools, and
venues where public meals are provided, but these policies
need persistence and continued political leadership for
success. Multiple indicators of human and environmental
health discussed in this Commission need to be applied.
Public distribution programmes targeting low-income
households and individuals can improve nutritional
status.282 Evidence that improved infrastructure or zoning
regulations could increase healthy food consumption or
reduce BMI is scarce, possibly because of poor policy or
evaluation design and insufficient data. Further research is
thus warranted in this area.283 Urban planning interventions
should account for local context and address ways in which
residents of low-income areas interact with local food
systems, such as their ability or desire to travel to different
areas to buy food.284
In low-income countries, ensuring adequate infra-
structure (eg, roads, bridges, and transportation) to remote
or rural areas can improve access to sellers of healthy food
and reduce food prices, food price volatility in local
markets,285 and food losses during transport. Agricultural
extension programmes that focus on nutrition and food
security can help ensure that rural farmers and women in
rural households are equipped with the information and
skills they need to obtain healthy diets from sustainable
food systems.286,287 In areas with informal markets, price
incentives for street vendors to use healthy and sustainable
ingredients and investment in sanitary locations for these
outlets have been recommended to increase availability of
safe, nutritious food.253
Second, healthy diets from sustainable food systems
should be made affordable. Primary producers are
locked into demands from suppliers to produce
commodities cheaply but plentifully. Consumers value
food being sufficiently low cost to enable them to make
other domestic purchases. Low-income societies spend a
high proportion of household budgets on food, whereas
high-income societies spend a low proportion. Food
prices are relative to social circumstance within and
between societies. Increased affordability of consumer
food has been a success of the post-World War 2 food The Lancet Commissions
34 www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4
revolution. Some foods are under pressure to increase in
price to include externalities. Experimentation with
sugar or soft drink taxes is one example.
We believe that food prices should fully reflect the true
costs of food. Subsidies on fertilisers, water, fuels,
electricity, and pesticides should be critically reviewed,
with some authorities arguing for their removal, and
environmental and societal health costs of food supply and
consumption should be fully reflected in pricing by
introducing taxes. As a result, food prices might increase.
Therefore, where appropriate, social protection or safety
nets (eg, increasing income through cash transfers) can be
established to protect vulnerable populations, particularly
children and women, while keeping trade open. We
recommend an expert panel be set up to model different
economic interventions, noting the work already underway
from UN Environment Programme’s initiative, The
Economics of Ecosystems & Biodiversity for Agriculture
and Food.288 Taxes and subsidies should encourage
healthy289 and sustainable diets.290 These measures
combined limit the potentially regressive nature of either
measure implemented in isolation.291 Social protection or
safety nets could substantially improve nutrition outcomes
in low-income households, but these programmes should
be explicitly nutrition-sensitive to be effective.292
In rural areas, increasing food security can improve
access to and affordability of healthy diets from sustainable
food systems. Access to economic resources and measures
for poverty alleviation, particularly among women, are
crucial for securing healthy diets from sustainable food
systems. Market access and off-farm opportunities are
essential for providing these rural farmers with the income
needed to remain food secure.293 Reducing volatility of food
prices is important to ensure affordability of healthy diets
from sustainable food systems, particularly at the regional
or local level. Key policies to reduce this volatility include
removing market barriers across local regions or markets,
ensuring access to price information and early warning
systems, implementing strict regulations against over-
speculations, international management of food stocks,
revisions of biofuel subsidies and tariffs to avoid diversion
of food to energy use, and establishing social protection
schemes, insurance programmes, and other safety nets.294
Third, renewed efforts by governments, industry, and
society are required to restrict advertising and marketing
of unhealthy, unsustainable foods, and to support
positive discrimination of healthy diets from sustainable
food systems. These efforts are in line with numerous
calls from the 2013 WHO Global Action Plan, 2011 UN
conference, 2010 WHO recommendations for marketing
of food and non-alcoholic beverages to children, and the
WHO Ending Childhood Obesity Commission. 295–298 The
INFORMAS framework is a tool that civil society and
researchers can use to monitor food labelling, promotion,
and retail (among other) activities in a particular food
environment and then compare those activities to best-
practice for creating healthy food environments.299
Fourth, individuals should be educated on healthy diets
from sustainable food systems. Although education
campaigns are less effective than regulatory or fiscal
measures in creating sustained change,300 educational
efforts might be a necessary precursor to strong inter-
vention because of substantial barriers to implementing
hard regulatory measures. Such education on healthy
diets could be integrated into schools (eg, school feeding
and school meal programmes), all national services, social
protection programmes (eg, cash transfer programmes),
and peer groups (eg, women farmer groups and co-
operatives). Civil society groups, the media, and other
leaders have an important role in increasing public
knowledge of healthy diets from sustainable food systems
through informational campaigns and starting social
movements to shift diets or reduce food waste.
Dietary guidelines that integrate health and environ-
mental sustainability considerations could be one tool
for nutrition education. The introduction of such
guidelines has been slow, and official dietary guidelines
are still absent in many countries. 301 In countries with
official advice, these guidelines are rarely followed
through with enabling or enforcing legislation or other
policies thus remaining as the softest form of consumer
advice. 302 Relevant national bodies should implement
guidelines for healthy diets from sustainable food
systems, supported by enabling policies and incentives,
and reflected through public procurement policies.
Public sector organisations could work with non-
governmental organisations progressing guidelines for
healthy diets from sustainable food systems. 303,304
Fifth, sustainable diets that taste good and are culturally
appropriate should be promoted. Chefs and foodservice
sectors increasingly recognise that they have an important
role in the Great Food Transformation. Whether
designing new menus,305–307 taking a lead in national
public campaigns about health and sustainability—as did
130 chefs from 38 countries on World Food Day on
Oct 10, 2017, and did Nordic chefs with the New Nordic
Kitchen Manifesto in 2004308—or pioneering peer-group
education with other chefs via professional bodies,309 the
cooking and catering enterprise is essential for this public
health change. Healthy, delicious, affordable food can be
essential to mass dietary change. Consumers can and
should like and help to drive the dietary shift.
Sixth, physicians and health-care service workers can
engage with other industries to redesign public food
provisions, such as school and hospital meals, and advise
food service industries. 305 Because food preferences can
develop during the first years of life and even during
gestation,310 nutrition counselling (ie, breastfeeding
promotion and appropriate complementary feeding)
should be integrated into maternal and child-care
programmes. Since medical education largely omits the
importance of nutrition to health, curricula should be
revised and new training packages created that combine
nutrition and ecosystems as determinants of health. The Lancet Commissions
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Food services in health-care facilities could demonstrate
to patients a high standard for healthy foods and
beverages from sustainable food systems.
Strategy two: reorient agricultural priorities from producing
large quantities of food to producing healthy food
Food policies need reframing to shift emphasis from
high volumes of outputs to high diversity of crops and
nutritional quality of foods produced. Researchers and
public health professionals are calling for accurate data
to track diet quality, 311 recommending improvement of
diet quality assessments,312 and emphasising the
importance of diet quality to food security.313 Resources
should be directed to creating robust diet quality
assessment tools, which could serve as an SDG indicator,
with requisite capacity building and regular data
gathering efforts at the country level. Emphasis could be
placed on sustaining agricultural diversity to ensure
nutrition quality by supporting small and medium
farms, which supply more than 50% of many essential
nutrients in the global food supply. 314
Agriculture is a core determinant of nutrition, and
national and global agricultural policies should work to
enhance nutrition outcomes.315 Actions can include
providing incentives for primary producers to produce
nutritious plant-based foods, focusing investments in
agricultural research on identifying pathways for
increasing nutrition and sustainability, or developing
programmes to support diverse and environmentally
sustainable production systems. Because evaluations of
the effectiveness of agricultural policies on nutrition and
health outcomes can be challenging, more resources need
to be directed at developing high-quality evaluations of the
effect of upstream policies on nutritional outcomes.316
The growing demand for animal source foods puts
pressure on land use, increases greenhouse-gas emissions,
and, if the animals are grain-fed, are water intensive.5,6,16,228
However, in some contexts, animal production can also be
essential for supporting livelihoods, grassland ecosystem
services, poverty alleviation, and benefits of nutritional
status (particularly in children and vulnerable populations;
panel 3).317 Therefore, animal production should be
considered in specific environmental contexts to determine
the extent to which production should decrease, and how
sustainable practices (eg, increasing efficiency of feed
use318 and reducing feed-food competition) can support a
range of issues, such as animal welfare and antimicrobial
resistance. Discussion about what large quantities of food
and healthy food means in different contexts is emerging.319
We support the continuation of this holistic assessment of
context-specific trade-offs or win-wins that could arise
from animal production.
Strategy three: sustainably intensify food production,
generating high-quality output
Agricultural practices could be better adapted to soil
characteristics, water availability, and climatic drivers
of evapotranspiration.320 For example, in arid regions,
drought-tolerant crop varieties can be selected, adequate
cropping patterns used, and deficit irrigation (only applied
during drought-sensitive growth stages of a crop) and
supplemental irrigation (to complement rainfall)
applied.321,322 Local to global scale land-use planning
incorporating these considerations can improve sustain-
ability of food production, but complementary measures
might also need to be incorporated to ensure these regions
have access to a diverse range of nutritious foods (panel 6).
In addition, matching production practices to local
conditions can increase food production sustainably.323
Precision agriculture techniques could be scaled up and
subsidised. To obtain high yields of crop per litre of water,
it is important to select the right crop cultivar planted at
the right density, time, and rotation, and to practice
water capture (for increased reliance on green water), soil
restoration, and drip irrigation, combined with soil
water harvesting and soil conservation practices.320 These
practices will reduce nutrient applications in some
countries and increase applications in others. Technologies
needed for precision agriculture are expensive, thus private
sector companies scale them up for affordability.
Governments should provide subsidies to enable their
adoption in low-income and middle-income countries.
Practices to prevent nutrient losses from the farm
include no or low tillage, using nitrogen-fixing cover crops
or crop varieties with large root mass, rotational grazing,
and crop residue management or field margin
management, such as riparian forests.324 Further examples
include recycling and efficient use of manure and soil
erosion control measures (eg, buffer strips to intercept
soils and nutrients).325–327 Additional on-farm measures
include covered manure storage, anaerobic digestion for
adjustment of nutrient ratios to match crop needs, and
biogas production from manure (possibly to power on-
farm machinery).224 Large-scale measures include recycling
nitrogen and phosphorus from wastewater systems, cities,
agriculture, and industry, and implementing governance
mechanisms to ensure regional compliance with water
and air quality targets related to formation of reactive
nitrogen and nitrogen oxides.
Redistributing fertiliser from over-applying to under-
applying regions would increase global food production
and improve efficiency of nutrient use and water
quality. 184 Increasing nutrient inputs in regions with
already high nutrient inputs tends to increase agricultural
runoff and reduce efficiency of nutrient use and water
quality. 328 In over-applying regions, regulations could be
used to mandate water quality targets. For example, after
the EU Nitrates Directive was put in place to reduce
nitrate concentrations in water, decreases in fertiliser use
in the EU have been associated with improved water
quality.329 In under-applying regions, subsidies that
increase access to fertiliser can increase yields.330
Large increases in carbon sequestration in agricultural
soils and above ground are needed28,208 and can be The Lancet Commissions
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achieved through various measures. Such measures
include incorporating farm organic wastes into soil, low
or no tillage, nitrogen-fixing cover plants, replacement of
annuals with perennial crops and pastures, agroforestry,
establishing buffer strips, and keeping some farmland
with natural vegetation. These measures might come at a
cost to near-term yields and consequently to farm
economy, thus calling for substantial policy support and
financial incentives. The 10% conservation in agriculture
recommended in Section 3 can, in many contexts, serve
multiple roles including carbon capture, nutrient
interception, and habitat and corridors for biodiversity
(eg, riparian forests).
Biodiversity conservation is essential to maintain
ecosystem services that support agriculture. In addition
to land-sparing measures, practices that enhance
biodiversity within agricultural systems are needed (eg,
riparian buffer strips or flower field margins). Presence
of natural enemies from increased biodiversity within
agricultural systems could prevent yield losses by
contributing to integrated weed, pest, and disease
management and could increase crop yields via increased
pollination by natural pollinators. 331,332 Sparing remaining
intact ecosystems is essential to achieving climate and
biodiversity boundaries described in Chapter 3. However,
sharing space for biodiversity in production landscapes
is necessary to secure biodiversity’s contribution to food
production, including pollination, pest control, carbon
capture, and regulating water quality.
Strategy four: strong and coordinated governance of land and
oceans
Effective governance of land can be achieved by halting
expansion of new agricultural land at the expense of
natural ecosystems. Direct regulatory measures include
strict protections on intact ecosystems, suspending con-
cessions for logging in protected areas, or conversion of
remaining intact ecosystems, particularly peatlands and
forest areas. Other measures include land-use zoning,
regulations prohibiting land clearing, and incentives for
protecting natural areas including forests. Approaches
that extend beyond the public sector, such as community
forest management, can also promote conservation, 333
but their effectiveness varies greatly across contexts. 334,335
Use of private sector approaches (market-based
instruments) has increased, but these do not substitute
for regulatory governance structures. 336 The boundary of
zero net expansion of agricultural land allows for some
local expansion in defined contexts. Implementing and
enforcing policy mechanisms that ensure that any
agricultural expansion occurs in existing managed
forests (eg, plantations), abandoned agricultural areas, or
other managed ecosystems is particularly important,
rather than expanding into natural habitats and other
species-rich areas. 144 Conversion within agricultural land
is also important, and trade-offs among multiple
ecosystem services (eg, potential biodiversity loss or
reduction in greenhouse gases, or both, when shifting
land uses) need to be considered.337
Collective action at local to global levels are needed to
stay within the boundary of zero net land use. Coordinated,
international governance across national borders is needed
to minimise deforestation leakage or harmonise land
controls across regions.338 At the regional and local levels,
pairing intensification of sustainable yields with
governance and establishment of conservation areas is
vital to preventing land-use expansion, conserving bio-
diversity in production landscapes, and protecting the
wellbeing of indigenous communities and shareholders
who are dependent on the land (panel 7).339
Where appropriate, restoration of degraded land can be
promoted through financial incentives for landholders to
undertake restoration projects or sanctions for land-
holders who do not initiate restoration of their land. 340
Active restoration techniques include soil management,
planting, or using thinning or burning to speed up
vegetation recovery. These approaches have been
favoured by decision makers and implementers in the
past, yet they are often costly and not always best suited
to the area. 341 For example, in tropical forests, natural
regeneration is more effective than active restoration at
promoting biodiversity and structure of natural
vegetation. 341 Policy makers should determine which
approach, or what combination of natural and active
restoration approaches, are best suited for specific
ecological conditions. 341 The global restoration movement
could be supported through political commitment to
existing frameworks, such as the Bonn Challenge and
the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Aichi Targets.342
Rigorous governance of aquatic ecosystems is
fundamental for protecting marine biodiversity as well as
ensuring ecosystem functions and continued future
supply of wild seafood.18 The ecosystem approach to
fisheries and aquaculture343,344 should be implemented,
implying use of the Code of Conduct for Responsible
Fisheries.345 Harmful subsidies to world fisheries will need
to be removed because these lead to over-capacity of the
global fishing fleet.346 In accordance with SDG, number 14,
by 2020 at least 10% of marine areas should be closed to
fishing. Focus should lie on closure of high seas thus using
these areas as a fish bank. This closure can greatly reduce
inequality of volume and value distribution of global
fisheries and increase net gains of most coastal countries,
including the least developed.347 Other essential measures
include general prevention of overfishing and application
of the precautionary approach in which absence of
scientific information about the effect of a fishery on
marine species and ecosystems is not an excuse for
delaying crucial action.348 Moreover, future risks and
opportunities related to anticipated aquaculture expansion
need to be managed. This management includes imple-
mentation of strict regulation on where to locate new
operations, antibiotic and chemical use, nutrient runoff,
and application of sustainably sourced feed from terrestrial nd food
The Lancet Commissions
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and marine origin. Seafood transparency and eco-
certification schemes can also be viable mechanisms for
improving performance of the expanding seafood sector.348
Strategy five: at least halve food loss and waste, in line with
global SDGs
Food loss and waste at initial production stages is highest
in low-income and middle-income countries 349 and can
be due to poor harvest scheduling and timing, rough or
careless handling of produce, or absence of market
access. Inadequate cooling and storage facilities can
cause farmers to leave crops unharvested or in fields,
thus increasing the risk of rotting and contamination.
Increased investment in post-harvest infrastructure
can help reduce food loss and waste.350 Investment in
processing technologies such as drying and packaging
solutions are also needed.
Steep reductions in food loss and waste will require
cooperation among multiple actors in the food system to
assess sources of food loss and waste and develop targeted
solutions. For example, the Save Food Initiative has been
used to develop policies, strategies, programmes, and
financing strategies for reducing food loss and waste.351
Infrastructural solutions include initiating collective
storage facilities, developing food processing technologies
and infrastructure, or investing in cold chains.352
Growers can be encouraged to adopt on-farm practices
to reduce food loss and waste, such as good animal
hygiene (reducing risk of contamination) or improved
harvesting and storage techniques. To build this capacity
of producers, investment in education, training, and
extension services is needed. Because of the high
involvement of women in post-harvest handling (as well
as many other activities),353 these services should be
designed to engage with and be accessed by women
producers in developing countries.
Particularly in highly-developed countries, the public is
responsible for a large proportion of food waste.349 The
Panel 7: Free trade and food
The role of trade in supporting health and environmental and
social development goals is heavily debated.62,63 For example,
although some people promote a liberalised environment for
international trade to shift nutritious foods and food
production inputs from areas of surplus to areas of deficit,
others raise concerns about the negative effects on diet-related
health. Evidence suggests that the following factors need to be
considered to ensure trade policy is enhancing the ability to
consume healthy diets from sustainable food systems.
The first factor is natural resource endowment and
environmental effects of food production, which vary
substantially between regions.64,65 However, some complexities
should be considered. Optimising global land use for food
production would be challenging because labour and capital are
not always easily shifted from producing one food to another.63
Providing compensation and social assistance to producers
could support these global shifts in patterns of food production.
The second factor is conditions affecting food security. Trade has
been promoted as a crucial means of achieving food security by
increasing the availability and stability of food supply at
affordable prices.63,66–68 For example, an analysis69 found that
without liberalised trade, low-income countries might find it
particularly difficult to meet their collective macronutrient and
micronutrient needs. Increasing employment and income-
generating opportunities is also favourable to food security. By
contrast, orienting agricultural policy around imports and
exports can displace national production and compromise the
ability of small-scale farmers and farm labourers in low-income
and middle-income countries to produce for local and national
markets, thus creating hardship for food-insecure populations.70
Evidence indicates that policies that liberalise trade have mixed
outcomes. For example, policies have been associated with
increased food availability in some countries but not in others.71,72
Likewise for employment and income, trade liberalisation has
been associated with increased income and employment
opportunities among poorer populations in some countries but
not others.73 Evidence also suggests that the overall effects on
food security depend on the context. For example, in case of
emergencies, evidence shows that international trade can
mitigate volatility of food prices and increase food security in the
event of extreme weather conditions and long-term climactic
changes that can disrupt regional crop production.74 Whereas,
evidence suggests that international trade rules are inadequate
at addressing import surges and expose countries to food price
volatility.75 Therefore, trade policy needs to consider factors
affecting food security among its people, and the context in
which it is used, to assess how it can be used as a tool to most
effectively support food security.
The third factor is the causes of unhealthy diets and diet-related
health. Increased open trade policies have made it easier for
transnational corporations selling foods associated with
unhealthy diets, such as sugary drinks, salty snacks, and fast
food, to make their foods available, affordable, and
appealing.76–78 Trade rules can restrict policy space to implement
public health measures designed to improve diets.63,79 The ways
in which trade policies affect these outcomes therefore need to
be reviewed when considering how trade could most effectively
support the goal of healthy diets from sustainable food systems.
International trade is complex. Opportunities to increase
coherence between trade policy goals80 and actions designed to
achieve health and sustainability goals should consider
vulnerable populations. Policy makers, public health
professionals, nutritionists, environmental scientists, and trade
bodies could work together to explore policy objectives that
support trade to achieve healthy diets from sustainable food
systems. mation
The Lancet Commissions
38 www.thelancet.com Published online January 16, 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4
Commission envisages use of campaigns to promote
improved planning of purchases, understanding of best
before and use by labels, storage practices, assessment of
portions needed, food preparation techniques, and
knowledge of how to use leftovers. Appropriate public
policy can be one mechanism to achieve these actions.
Food loss and waste can be incorporated into national
waste policies, food safety policies, food standard
rules, food labelling regulations, food redistribution
policies, and food subsidies.352 Financial incentives or
national waste reduction programmes can encourage
collaboration or national innovation competitions among
actors to reduce food loss and waste in their supply chains.
Tools for a Great Food Transformation
Evidence suggests that steps to begin this Great Food
Transformation should be taken quickly. Moving towards
this transformation requires good data on each country’s
status of their diet and food system. Diets, effects of their
food systems, and particularities of their immediate
challenges vary between countries. Opportunities to act
inevitably differ across contexts. Despite these varying
starting points, common tools that have not been discussed
can be used to spur the Great Food Transformation.
Although different priorities and pathways need to be
tailored to different contexts, they all need to encourage
the global trajectory towards a single set of shared goals.
This Commission aimed to set scientific targets for
healthy diets and sustainable food production. Gaining
consensus on these targets is a first step in urging actors
to agree on a common agenda. Targets will then be
refined and engaged with at all policy levels.
Because these goals cross-cut political, sectoral, and
geographical boundaries, an integrated approach is
needed. Integrated approaches can be advanced by
establishing formal and frequent interactions between
governing groups. For example, UN bodies should
facilitate inter-institutional working groups and meetings
that focus on cross-sectional issues, such as sustainable
diets. The Food and Agriculture Organization, UN
Environment Programme, UN Educational, Scientific
and Cultural Organization, and UNDP on the Inter-
governmental Panel on Ecosystem Services is exploring a
specific assessment on food and food systems.
Engineering change across the food system (even if
narrowly conceived as economics of supply chain
management) is complex enough, but if multi-level,
multi-actor, multi-sector, multi-disciplinary change is
required, governance faces serious challenges. Because
many governments have adopted laissez-faire approaches
to consumer choice, the leadership required by govern-
ments and food system actors is considerable. This
leadership demands coordination, consultation, and good
policy facilitation by important policy actors.
Domestic spending will need to increase for policy
instruments supporting healthy diets from sustainable
food systems. The absence of dedicated funding to support
the transformation towards sustainable food systems is a
crucial barrier to progress.354 Investment flows can be
leveraged in innovative ways to create multiple wins
across the sustainable development challenges. Donors
and multi-lateral organisations should be engaged, and
reporting processes by the Organisation for Economic Co-
operation and Development could be refined to improve
tracking of this funding.311
Building an alliance of forces that can operationalise the
Commission’s broad recommendations is challenging.
These alliances could include actors at all stages of the
Purpose Tasks 1 Tasks 2
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change-type mechanism
for healthy diets from sustainable
food systems
To be a consortium of scientists which collates and updates
data for the UN
Provide regular sources of impartial state of the
art summaries, which combine data across
disciplines
Review policy options for the UN system
UN Framework Convention on
Sustainable Food Systems
To provide a framework for healthy diets from sustainable
food systems with functions akin to those of the Framework
Conventions on Climate Change356 and on Tobacco357
Produce guidelines and protocols that set targets
and enable monitoring
Host a Food Meeting of the Parties akin to
the Convention of the Parties process
International Working Party on
Sustainable Dietary Guidelines
To produce evidence-based guidelines to add sustainability
criteria to existing food-based and nutrient-based dietary
guidelines
Provide science-based advice for a wide range of
bodies
Set healthy and sustainable dietary
guidelines to meet the food-related
Sustainable Development Goals
A Standing Panel of Experts on
healthy diets from sustainable
food systems
To be a subcommittee or standing Advisory body to an
existing body such as the UN Standing Committee on
Nutrition or UN Codex Alimentarius Commission
Produce expert reviews of problem issues for the
parent body
Advise national governments on healthy
diets from sustainable food systems
standards
Roadmaps to healthy diets from
sustainable food systems
To generate one-off sector plans for public or private sectors
or both
Industry-specific and sector-specific plans to
contribute to healthy diets from sustainable food
systems
Develop plans with phased processes of
change to meet specific targets
Global Food Systems Report To author an authoritative annual report, ideally under the auspices of a UN or Bretton Woods body, jointly with others
Produce an annual overview report of the world
food system
Conduct special reviews attached to the
report
Global Food Systems Observatory Consortium of scientists providing high quality evidence on interventions, modelled on the Cochrane Collaboration and
Health/Obesity Observatories
Create a global working network of Universities
and scientists to refine evidence-based policy
Monitor regional and national performance
in line with agreed targets and criteria
Table 7: Potential new evidence-based institutions which could champion and monitor the Great Food Transformation Lancet 2015;
The Lancet Commissions
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food system and operate at all scales so that local actions
can be in line with global goals. Such alliances can play a
part in bolstering support for the agenda on healthy diets
from sustainable food systems and exert influence within
and outside of government.
Many annual official or officially approved reports by
reputable bodies already exist. Some health-oriented
reports might be broadened to include sustainability
aspects or, vice versa, environmental or food security
reports might include strong nutritional and cultural
dimensions. The alternative would be initiating a new
annual or biannual report on healthy diets from sustainable
food systems; methodology for this report would need to
be replicable at national and other levels. In addition,
monitoring and reporting should go beyond lists of actions
and statistics of effects to include regular synthesis and
dissemination of lessons learned. Transferable lessons
should be spread widely to inspire action.
Expert reports from existing bodies such as UN
Environment Programme,254 UN Committee on World
Food Security,352 and UN Standing Committee on
Nutrition have highlighted different aspects of the agenda
explored by this Commission.355 The value of bodies such
as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and
the Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity and
Ecosystem Services is that they constantly champion
narrowing the gap between scientific evidence and policy
making. These bodies continually collect high-quality
data and are subject to intergovernmental agreements,
conventions, and Conferences of the Parties. The Great
Food Transformation can help to meet existing
agreements such as the SDGs, the Paris Agreement, and
elements of the WHO-Food and Agriculture Organization
Decade of Nutrition Action, but a new Convention or
agreement is almost certainly needed. The Commission
recommends that international bodies review whether a
new oversight body or bodies might be needed, or
whether existing bodies could coalesce or have their remit
and functions revised to provide necessary focus on
healthy diet for all from sustainable food systems (table 7).
Conclusion
The food we eat and how we produce it will determine
the health of people and planet, and major changes must
be made to avoid both reduced life expectancy and
continued environmental degradation. This Commission
presents an integrated framework providing quantitative
scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable food
production, which together define a safe space within
which food systems should operate to ensure that a
broad set of human health and environmental
sustainability goals are achieved. This framework is
universal and provides boundaries that are globally
applicable with a high potential of local adaptation and
scalability. By defining and quantifying a safe operating
space for food systems, diets can be identified that will
nurture human health and support environmental
sustainability. Our universal healthy reference diet
largely consists of vegetables, fruits, whole grains,
legumes, nuts, and unsaturated oils, includes a low to
moderate amount of seafood and poultry, and includes
no or a low quantity of red meat, processed meat, added
sugar, refined grains, and starchy vegetables. Our
definition of sustainable food production stays within
safe planetary boundaries for six environmental
processes that together regulate the state of the Earth
system, and include climate change, land-system
change, freshwater use, biodiversity loss, and
interference with the global nitrogen and phosphorus
cycles. Applying a global food system modelling
framework, we show that it is possible to feed a global
population of nearly 10 billion people a healthy diet
within food production boundaries by 2050. However,
this Great Food Transformation will only be achieved
through widespread, multisector, multilevel action that
includes a substantial global shift towards healthy
dietary patterns, large reductions in food loss and waste,
and major improvements in food production practices.
Data are sufficient and strong enough to warrant action;
delay will increase the likelihood of not achieving the
Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris
Agreement. This Commission shows that a Great Food
Transformation is both necessary and achievable.
Contributors
This Commission is an international collaboration between EAT, the
Stockholm Resilience Centre, the Wellcome Trust, and the Stordalen
Foundation, and is led by EAT. The Commission is co-chaired by WW and JR, with contributions from a panel of expert Commissioners (TL, SV, TG, DT, JF, CH, RZ, JAR, LMS, RA, FB, AL, SF, KSR, SNa, SNi, and CJLM)
and contributors (BL, MS, FD, AW, MJ, MC, LTG, WDV, AA, AC, MH,
BC, EF, VB, MT, TL, SS, and SEC). Coordination and development was
led by the EAT–Lancet secretariatat the Stockholm Resilience Centre
(BL, FD, AW, and MJ). All Commissioners and contributing authors
contributed to the manuscript ideas, structure, and reviewing and have
seen and approved the final version of the manuscript.
Declaration of interests
All authors received funding from EAT and the Wellcome Trust.
Acknowledgments
We acknowledge funding from The Wellcome Trust, including financial support to the secretariat to coordinate collation of the Commission and for travel fares, accommodation, and food for the Commission meetings. The Wellcome Trust also provided administrative help in hosting two
Commission meetings at their offices in London. This Commission was also funded by the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation for
developing graphics and for future communications and outreach. Both organisations had no role in the writing of the manuscript. All
Commissioners were supported by their employing organisations (see
author affiliations) to undertake the Commission’s work. The findings
and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily
reflect recommendations or policies of their employing organisations or of the funders. We are partnered by the Stockholm Resilience Centre
and EAT, and we thank these organisations for continuous support in
writing the manuscript. We acknowledge Per Olsson and Brian Lipinski for their comments on the draft of the manuscript, and Theresa Marteau for acting as an adviser to the policy working group.
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PLAN CLIMAT PAYS BASQUE – Livre blanc concertation et bilan consultation - version du 19 juin 2021
LIVRE BLANC DE LA CONCERTATION ET
BILAN DE LA CONSULTATION
Annexes de la concertation
Contributions des internautes sur la
plateforme « Climat Action Pays
Basque »
Fichiers partagés atelier « Adaptation
au changement climatique » 1/4
Contribution au PCAET
de la Communauté d’Agglomération Pays Basque
Volet numérique
Le numérique : vorace énergétique
Nul besoin de revenir sur la place prépondérante, et probablement amenée à croître fortement,
de l’informatique et du numérique dans nos vies personnelles et professionnelles. Mis en avant
comme un levier de développement économique et social, le numérique voit ses impacts
environnementaux, directs ou indirects, de plus en plus pointés du doigt. En 2019, au moment
où les risques climatiques deviennent enfin un sujet largement diffusé (permettant par là-même
de pouvoir se concentrer sur la recherche de solutions), la quote-part du numérique est très
largement sous-estimée, peut-être à cause de l’aspect virtuel de ce secteur d’activité.
Quelques chiffres pour donner l’ampleur du mouvement (source education.francetv.fr) :
● En 2019, pour 7,7 milliards d’êtres humains sur terre, nous trouvons : environ 2 milliards d’ordinateurs, 5 milliards de smartphones, 7 milliards d’objets connectés, 800 millions d’équipements réseaux et 60 millions de serveurs hébergés dans les 9 millions de Datacenters.
● Selon les sources, le numérique représente entre 3 et 10% de la consommation électrique mondiale.
● Le numérique émet environ 4 % des émissions de gaz à effet de serre (contre 2% pour le transport aérien), avec un taux de croissance de 8 % par an.
● Envoyer un mail court, avec une pièce jointe de 1 méga-octet, équivaut à l’utilisation d’une ampoule de 60 watts pendant 25 minutes.
● Visionner un film haute définition d’une heure sur votre smartphone revient à laisser cette même ampoule de 60 watts allumée pendant 10 jours. A ? 7 Fabrication Transport
Extraction
des matières
premieres este CYCLE DE VIE
este UN PRODUIT A
"> Valorisation
NE 4 dd 4 8
Fin de vie
Distribution
2/4
Comprendre l’impact environnemental du numérique
Partant de ce constat, que peuvent faire la puissance publique, les entreprises et les citoyens de la CAPB, dans leurs usages personnels et/ou professionnels, pour réduire cet impact environnemental galopant ?
Pour penser l’impact énergétique d’une filière, qui s’appuie sur la production de biens (matériels ou logiciels), il faut d’abord l’appréhender dans la totalité de son cycle de vie :
● Production (incluant la conception, l’extraction de matières premières et d’énergie, la fabrication et le transport)
● Utilisation
● Fin de vie
Source Ademe
Il ne suffit donc pas de prendre en compte la phase “Utilisation” (la plus visible), mais l’ensemble des phases, d’autant plus que les équipements concernés sont particulièrement coûteux en matières premières et difficiles à recycler en fin de vie.
Partant de là, quels composants doit-on évaluer ? Le numérique est un concept flou qui met en œuvre des produits très divers et distants pour délivrer un service à un utilisateur, que ce soit l’accès à un site web ou l’utilisation d’une application sur smartphone. Voici ces catégories de produits :
● Terminaux : ordinateurs, smartphones, tablettes
● Réseaux : toutes les technologies permettant la connexion au réseau internet (wifi, 4G…), ainsi que l’infrastructure mondiale du réseau internet (maillage mondial)
● Datacenter : bâtiments sécurisés et très énergivore hébergeant les serveurs et les espaces de stockage de nos applications
Pour être complet, il ne fait pas oublier que ces catégories “matérielles” portent toutes des logiciels les faisant fonctionner, depuis les systèmes d’exploitation jusqu’aux applications finales. Data Center Terroinaux
GES
Ressources
Déchets
3/4
Selon une étude récente de GreenIT.fr, voici la répartition de l’impact environnemental :
On y constate que ce sont les terminaux qui portent la part la plus importante de par leur l’impact environnemental unitaire, mais aussi de par leur volume. Il semble donc évident que nos terminaux sont un axe de travail fondamental si on espère pouvoir parvenir à des résultats significatifs.
Agir sur le numérique territorial
Bien évidemment, comme pour l’ensemble des domaines impactant le climat, une partie importante de la solution est de portée nationale ou internationale, ce qui suppose des décisions politiques et des engagements qui dépassent le cadre de notre champ de réflexion.
Pour autant, à côté des “grands pas”, les “plus petits pas” ont toute leur place et l’histoire a souvent montré qu’ils inspirent souvent les choix d’envergure par la suite.
C’est donc pour le territoire de la CAPB, et en ciblant des actions susceptibles de résultats concrets et perceptibles, que nous avançons ces propositions, en les rattachant à chaque fois à une phase du cycle de vie et une catégorie de produits.
Développer l’éco-conception logicielle en impulsant ces compétences dans les cursus de formation informatique du territoire
Il s’agit d’agir sur la Production des Logiciels, de manière à ce qu’il soit conçus de manière à être le moins énergivore possible. Des pistes existent pour produire du code qui sollicite moins les ressources du terminal, du réseau et des serveurs distants.
Prendre en compte les critères environnementaux dans l’achat des produits, en particulier dans les grandes structures publiques ou privées, acheteuses de volumes importants de matériels informatiques
Cette mesure consiste à évaluer le coût environnemental de Production des Terminaux, en demandant ces éléments de décision auprès des fournisseurs. On pourra aussi prendre en compte leur consommation électrique. 4/4
Accompagner le développement de réseaux et d’infrastructures informatiques favorisant les circuits les plus directs pour les flux d’information entre les terminaux des citoyens et les Datacenters qui hébergent les applications
C’est le volet Production des Réseaux qui est ici abordé. L’infrastructure internet en France est un maillage en étoile depuis la région parisienne. Cette architecture ne favorise pas les flux directs. Un internaute d’Anglet, qui cherche à accéder à un service hébergé sur la technopole de Bidart, verra très probablement son flux de données passer par la région parisienne. Au-delà des pertes de performance, le surcoût énergétique est aussi à prendre en compte. Il est donc du ressort des investisseurs privés et publics de s’emparer de ce sujet d’aménagement numérique du territoire, en améliorant le maillage entre opérateurs nationaux et locaux, à travers un point d’échange internet local (GIX).
Promouvoir le développement de Datacenters territoriaux éco-conçus, en recherchant une synergie de mutualisation entre les acteurs publics et privés
Dans le domaine de la Production des Datacenters, on est à nouveau dans un modèle hypercentralisé, où les offres les plus attractives sont nationales, voire internationales. Au-delà des questions de performance (voir le volet Réseaux), ce sont aussi les compétences en ingénierie que nous laissons ainsi filer en dehors du territoire. C’est en recherchant une offre d’hébergement locale, de qualité et préoccupée des impacts climatiques qu’on pourra agir sur ce volet hyper structurant.
Sensibiliser à la sobriété et à l’hygiène numérique
C’est la proposition la plus “sobre” à rédiger, c’est aussi la plus importante, car la plus susceptible de produire des résultats concrets. Ce sujet transverse concerne l’Utilisation des Terminaux, mais à travers eux également les briques Réseaux et Datacenter. C’est un chantier colossal qu’on peut résumer ainsi : comment convaincre les internautes qu’il faudrait visionner moins de vidéos sur YouTube et qu’il faudrait régulièrement faire le ménage dans leurs messageries et autres espaces de stockage ? Nul besoin de s’étendre pour mesurer l’immensité du chantier et prendre conscience que c’est l’ensemble des acteurs (pouvoirs publics, éducation nationale, filières de formation, associations, secteur privé...) qui doivent s’unir pour espérer atteindre cet objectif.
Organiser et accompagner le développement de la filière de tri et de recyclage des composants électroniques
On termine avec la Fin de vie des Terminaux, où l’on rejoint les démarches déjà entamées dans d’autres domaines pour mieux valoriser les produits en fin de vie, voire même en leur donnant une seconde vie, à travers le développement de structures travaillant sur la récupération, la réparation et le reconditionnement d’ordinateurs, smartphones et autres tablettes, trop rapidement abandonnés par les utilisateurs face au déferlement marketing et à l'obsolescence programmée.
Francisco Ordas - Octobre 2019